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Silicon Motion Technology Corp. Message Board

geezer31 52 posts  |  Last Activity: Sep 18, 2014 8:45 PM Member since: Dec 22, 1998
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  • Reply to

    Is SIMO in the new SNDK cards?

    by wanabtigerw Sep 18, 2014 12:57 PM
    geezer31 geezer31 Sep 18, 2014 8:45 PM Flag

    I think SIMO gave speeds for a controller, whereas SNDK gave speeds for a card. Perhaps not the same thing.

  • In Q2 at about this time the stock moved from $17 to $23 over the course of a few weeks. We're about 2.5 weeks away from the date they'll probably pre-announced Q3 revenues (my guess is Oct 6th). Are we going to get an end of quarter runup again, or has it already moved too far too fast?

    I say runup!

  • Reply to

    Interesting groups acquiring

    by arbitrager_z Sep 11, 2014 8:45 PM
    geezer31 geezer31 Sep 14, 2014 9:00 AM Flag

    Can you post a link or tell where to see these SEC filings? Yahoo finance doesn't have any SEC filings for SIMO, probably because it is an ADS stock.

  • Reply to

    The LTE business

    by jiangli21 Sep 5, 2014 1:28 PM
    geezer31 geezer31 Sep 6, 2014 12:17 AM Flag

    There's loads of upside in the LTE business, but it's a complete wildcard. The good thing is no one expects it to do much, so it probably won't disappoint, but it could easily tack on an unexpected $10 million in revenues any time they get a design win. I wouldn't spend too much time with your analysis of various markets and stuff, we have little insight into why Samsung does or does not use it's own LTE basebands in various models, we just gotta wait until design win announcements come out.

  • I mean sellers!

    The valuation is getting perhaps pricey - If they're going to make $2.00 EPS next year (which is by no means certain) what's it worth? I have no idea, but it's fun to watch.

  • Reply to

    I am not suprised at all

    by metalmeister79 Sep 4, 2014 11:13 AM
    geezer31 geezer31 Sep 4, 2014 11:42 AM Flag

    You're making your top pick of 2014 in September?

    Anyway, welcome to the SIMO train, $29 is the all time high share price, it looks like she's going to bust through there with a week or so!

  • Reply to

    bold prediciton...

    by wanabtigerw Sep 1, 2014 5:24 PM
    geezer31 geezer31 Sep 1, 2014 11:39 PM Flag

    Lots of investment conference presentations (Citibank, JP Morgan, Breen, others) this week and next.

  • geezer31 geezer31 Aug 27, 2014 10:07 PM Flag

    I'd bet there's a 75% chance we see upside revenues in Q3, and a raise of full year revenues for 2014. Last quarter was the first clean beat and raise quarter for SIMO for about two years, the good news is just beginning.

  • Reply to

    Dividend second Q

    by lucysarik Aug 27, 2014 9:13 AM
    geezer31 geezer31 Aug 27, 2014 9:49 PM Flag

    The Q1 dividend included a gain on sale from one of their businesses. The Q2 dividend is from normal business operations.

  • geezer31 by geezer31 Aug 15, 2014 9:09 PM Flag

    Where's our martini spilling pundit these days? I have no idea what has caused SIMO to go up three dollars in 5 trading days, but I'll take it. I don't think there is any expected meaningful SIMO news until early October when they pre-announce Q3 revenue levels, so this uptrend may continue for a while. Why all these buyers are paying $27 when the SIMO story could have been bought at this time last year for about $12 I have no idea, but welcome to the SIMO train new investors!

  • It's been a long wait, but it's turning out well. I've been in SIMO since 2008 so am enjoying this immensely. "How high can it go?" now becomes the question!

  • geezer31 geezer31 Aug 5, 2014 8:23 PM Flag

    Nobody jumped to respond to anything. The 3 day Flash Memory Summit started Tuesday, it's the natural day to announce new products.

  • Reply to

    Question on how to interpret

    by arbitrager_z Aug 4, 2014 7:52 AM
    geezer31 geezer31 Aug 4, 2014 9:08 AM Flag

    He said "already this quarter (Q2) NAND flash controller revenues achieved the highest quarterly revenue in company history". It means USB, removable card, SSD, eMMC and all the other controller revenues, which is 85% of sales in Q2, was the highest quarter every of NAND flash controller sales. That's all

    As for eMMC, it is expected to grow 35% in H2 as compared to H1.

    You're correct eMMC in total is expected to grow 50% for the full year.

    As to how sales are only growing 22%-27% given the above, you've got legacy product (USB and removable cards) declining by $10m in 2014, and LTE sales flat at $12m. Those two items are the drag on total growth this year. Who knows - maybe they'll get some more LTE design wins and be able to raise 2014 LTE guidance next quarter.

  • Reply to

    Comments on the conference call

    by geezer31 Jul 29, 2014 8:08 AM
    geezer31 geezer31 Jul 29, 2014 8:52 AM Flag

    Northland Capital - Q: What did you say about Samsung? A: They are less than $5m in 2014 eMMC sales. Q:Why? A: it's a legacy program, and Samsung has moved to an internal solution. We are reallocating our engineering resources to the new TLC partner. They may win new Samsung eMMC business, but who knows?

    Q: LTE design win is for 3 different handsets? A: yes. Q: Next year, where does the additional $12m come from? A: The design wins are for high end handsets, and in 2nd half 2015 they are targetting non-Samsung handsets by going after new LTE baseband partners.

    Pac Crest Q: Why did inventory go up so much in Q2? A; It went up with ramping revenues. (Duh!)

    Q: What was eMMC revenue from Samsung last year? A: less than $5m.

    Q: Any thoughts of spinning off the LTE business? Sure, if there is a buyer.

    Q:What is the Op Ex for LTE? A: An Op Ex that is appropriate for its level of revenue.

    Q: What is going on with the NAND supply? Is it still expected to be tight in the 2nd half. A: NAND market will experience tightness very early in Q3.

  • Reply to

    Comments on the conference call

    by geezer31 Jul 29, 2014 8:08 AM
    geezer31 geezer31 Jul 29, 2014 8:44 AM Flag

    B. Riley Q: Are eMMC ASPs 2x removable controller ASPs? They didn't answer.

    Q: What percent of revenue is Samsung in 2014? A: Samsung has declined for 2 reasons. 1- they no longer do much bundled cards, and 2- they allocate more resources to the new TLC partner. This year they expect Samsung to be a 10% customer.

    Q: Talk about the upcoming SSD controller products. A: Hmmmm, He's talking about the design wins, not the new upcoming products.

  • Reply to

    Comments on the conference call

    by geezer31 Jul 29, 2014 8:08 AM
    geezer31 geezer31 Jul 29, 2014 8:39 AM Flag

    Jason Smith, Lake Street - Talk about competition and pricing pressure. A: in eMMC we are the only meaningful merchant provider. Flash partners will continue to outsource mainstream high volume products to us, and they will devote internal resources to something else. Barrier to entry is very high because of our engineering relationship with the flash partners. For SSD we are new but getting an increasing pipeline of design wins. Our SSD technology is built up from the ground, and our in depth knowledge of NAND is unique, and will help us as shrinks occur.

    Q; And channel inventory concern? A: eMMC is tracked weekly by the OEM and doesn't seem to have a full channel issue.

    Needham - Q: What is the full year growth expectation for 2015 for the whole company? Can you grow 15%-20% in 2015? A: We will grow strongly in 2015 and beyond in both eMMC and SSD. It's premature to give a consolidated 2015 growth target. But we can give you pieces, such as eMMC should grow 15%-20%, and SATA-3 should grow 3x to 4x 2014 levels. On LTE we should do $12m this year, and also at least $12m next year. Legacy products should be flat, or decline modestly in 2015.

    Q: The two new LTE design wins, tell me about them? What's the renewed interest by Samsung LTE mean exactly? A: They think Samsung remains committed to their own LTE platform. No detail here really.

    Q: What about price pressure? A: Market demand for low cost high performance products is strong. However, in SSD their product launches are for higher and higher tech products, price should be able to be flat or better. For mobile storage their blended gross margin should increase as eMMC grows and removable storage declines.

  • Reply to

    Comments on the conference call

    by geezer31 Jul 29, 2014 8:08 AM
    geezer31 geezer31 Jul 29, 2014 8:30 AM Flag

    Q&A. Topeka- 2014 SSD growth and share estimates? 2014 SATA-3 revenues should be $15m-$20m. Next year it should grow 3x to 4x. What market share will that be? A: We don't know the share.

    Are the follow on SATA-3 programs larger or smaller than the initial one? Their design wins with the SSD maker and 2 NAND flash OEMs are HUGE. For some of them it is for their ENTIRE SSD family. The size could be quite significant.

    Q: How about expense growth in 2015? A: We are hiring agreessively. We are trying to increase R&D as quickly as possible.

    Craig Hallum: Q:What's 2015 Op Ex expectation, and where does long term gross margin go? A: Trying to manage Op Ex, but we have lots of new programms in both SSD and eMMC. We are hiring. Our target gross margin is 50%, it was higher in Q2, but we try to manage gross margin toward 50%. As projects scale we get pricing declines, and also there are some volume discounts for larger products.

    Q: Any problems with sourcing from foundries? A: We have two foundries, mainly TSMC and somewhat SMIC. They like us. Sounds like no problems in this area.

  • Reply to

    Comments on the conference call

    by geezer31 Jul 29, 2014 8:08 AM
    geezer31 geezer31 Jul 29, 2014 8:23 AM Flag

    LTE comments. Please with renewed traction. He kept LTE revenue guidance for LTE at $12m for 2014.

    Riyadh - Q2 review. Removable storage controllers were flat sequentially. Mobile TV SOC increased, and LTE transceivers began. Gross Margins were up due to strength in eMMC and SATA-3 controllers. Added 13 employees in the Q. Therefore most of the increase expenses were tapeouts, not salary. Expect strong growth in eMMC in Q3 and a seasonal decline in eMMC in Q4. They expect strong SSD growth in both 3rd and 4th quarter, and it should grow 3x to 4x next year. Q3 gross margin will decline due to product volume discounts - they might have discussed this when my internet went out.

  • Reply to

    Comments on the conference call

    by geezer31 Jul 29, 2014 8:08 AM
    geezer31 geezer31 Jul 29, 2014 8:16 AM Flag

    SATA-3 comments. In Q2 many module makers used their SATA-3 SSD controllers. Module maker demand is stronger than expected. They expect SATA-3 to contribute $15m-$20m in 2014 sales. One of their SATA-3 OEMs will begin shipping SATA-3 cache product in H2 2014, but sales will be small. The same OEM will launch larger SATA-3 sales in Q1 2015. A 2nd NAND flash partner will begin production of a program in H1 2015.

    New SSD products will come in the next few months. A TLC SATA-3 controller is coming in Q3 2014, and PCI gen 2 controller will launch in Q4, and PCI gen 3 will launch in H1 2015. They think their products will have technology which is not currently available in the merchant SSD controller market (I guess it means MRVL can't make the same thing). The hope to become the leading solid state controller vendor in the market.

  • Reply to

    Comments on the conference call

    by geezer31 Jul 29, 2014 8:08 AM
    geezer31 geezer31 Jul 29, 2014 8:11 AM Flag

    -There were some comments about Samsung eMMC, I missed them
    -2nd half eMMC revenue is expected to grow 35% over H1 eMMC revenue. eMMC total sales should grow 50% in 2014.
    - They expect strong eMMC growth next year in eMMC, from both Korean and TLC customers. Next year eMMC should grow at least in line with eMMC market at 15%-20%.

SIMO
25.37-1.57(-5.83%)Oct 1 4:00 PMEDT

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