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Athenahealth, Inc. (ATHN) Message Board

georgespelvin 351 posts  |  Last Activity: Oct 20, 2013 3:56 PM Member since: Jul 16, 2008
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  • georgespelvin@rocketmail.com by georgespelvin Oct 20, 2013 3:56 PM Flag

    I think will come from a buyout. HK was bought out. The big oil companies will move in when the price starts going up. These little E&P companies never mature. They get bought out. Mobil or Exxon bought Texaco when oil was $14 a barrel.
    Does anyone know at what point UPL has to mark their reserves to market on the upswing? That will hit their P&L as a credit and their assets as a debit and although not a thing changed one day to the next that will kill the shorts. That is also another possible huge gain event. It is the reversing of the writing down that occurred when ng value went down. Just like the banks with their loan loss reserves or insurance companies with their reserves for claims. Only with banks and insurance companies they can manipulate it any way they want. I imagine with ng reserve intensive companies there is an industry wide protocol that must be followed. Would be interesting to know. Anyone know?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • georgespelvin@rocketmail.com by georgespelvin Jul 19, 2013 11:54 AM Flag

    They either had this in the bag and waited until just before announcing their numbers, which proves their profit problem, or they begged the prospect and incentivized them with even deeper discounts to get them to sign just before the numbers. In any event you were manipulated. The purpose was to mitigate the damage from the bad report. And whoever said this deal willl result in lower margins is right. You cannot implement a 10% increase in one client without spending a lot of money. Also note the increases in sales and marketing. That is where you can hide a lot of margin lowering stuff. You can report discounts and adjustments as sales expense. You can do all sorts of things. What mature business have you ever heard of that increases its sales and marketing expense by 50%? It is laughable if you know the joke. But the people on this board don't know the joke. Neither do the analysts. They are not analysts. They are shills. Mouthpieces. They are hired by the people who make the banking fees. The less they know the better.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Revenue

    by georgespelvin Jul 18, 2013 7:19 PM
    georgespelvin@rocketmail.com georgespelvin Jul 19, 2013 11:45 AM Flag

    If most analysts are modeling it at standard rates they have never run a business. Which is probable true. Epic could get a deal that size for four times the fee. ATHN would have to buy a deal that size. In addition they are buying deals all over the place. They have one story. Revenue. The institutions own almost all of this. They are stuck. They cannot get out without driving the stock down to $40. Every real number that comes out of mgt demonstrates they have adverse economies of scale and that the more business they get the less they make at the margins. On top of that they report false numbers that add back depreciation and amortization and take out stock based compensation. On top of that they sell every share they get their hands on. It is a promotion.

    Analysts are worthless. Worse than worthless. They are you enemy. They are paid to screw shareholders. And sanctioned by the SEC. As is mgt. Russia would watch out for you more than the SEC.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • georgespelvin@rocketmail.com by georgespelvin Jul 18, 2013 7:19 PM Flag

    The trick in business is not revenue. It is profit. It is no trick to drive revenue if you don't care about profit. It is also no trick to show high margins if you do not expense your expenses but instead issue stock. There has also never ever been any case of a successful outcome for shareholders when the insiders sell virtually every share they got initially and then afterward. But what do I know? I am certainly not shorting this stock until mgt has exhausted the pool of greater fools. I feel sorry for the shorts because they are right but are getting killed.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • georgespelvin@rocketmail.com georgespelvin Jul 12, 2013 10:52 PM Flag

    4% of 10% for those whose investment decisions extend no further than the story.

  • georgespelvin@rocketmail.com georgespelvin Jul 12, 2013 10:50 PM Flag

    But it won't matter because they laid out this story. This is not a company stock. It is a story stock. Just like Amazon but much worse but the story is great. The ten percent increase in their revenues will result on a 4% net, a year from now. But right now it does not matter. We have not run out of greater fools yet.

  • georgespelvin@rocketmail.com by georgespelvin Jul 12, 2013 9:51 AM Flag

    new client is a 10% bump in their number of providers. This is obviously one deal so the cost of the transaction (sales expense) is low but i guarantee you the margins are also. Esp Catholic institution. So the revenues will go up within six months but the expenses will go up and the margins will continue to shrink. I would not short it today, and have been out for a while now when it would not go down. There is just too much insanity surrounding the stock to short it now. I worked last year. Has not worked since it went back up. It will not go down until the market understands that it could double its revenue. Revenue does not count. Cash flow, book value and profits count. You know who taught me that? Nobody.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • georgespelvin@rocketmail.com by georgespelvin Jun 11, 2013 7:53 PM Flag

    In the most recent filings the board voted to create 1.66 million more shares for compensation of the key execs, who spin them in one day and sell them to the common shareholders. As a percentage of the outstanding they are telling you they plan to dilute the shares by 1.66/36.7 million shares or by 4.5%. The double effect of this is that they do not count the value of the stock they give themselves and sell to shareholders in their expenses. This is their NON GAAP earnings. Double whammy.

    In the last quarter institutions actually bought more shares. They soaked up 691 thousand shares. The insider execs sold over 140,000 shares while the institutions bought more. Perhaps the additional purchases of institutions was a result of averaging down or perhaps a new opening position. Who knows. But management sold, sold, sold and now have only 336 thousand shares, which is now less than 1%..

    The shares the insiders buy are using the option method. They wait until the stock goes down. Maybe they help it go down. Who knows. Then they give themselves options. For example, Jonathan Bush sold 5,000 shares a few days ago for $82 in the afternoon that he paid $26 for in the morning. If he thought the stock was going to go to 100 he would have waited. It is pretty obvious he does not want to take the chance that it will not.

    In their last board meeting they had a bit of palace revolt when it came to approving compensation package. The shareholder vote was nearly split 50/50. That means that the institutions are getting a bit ticked off. But the quorum is 75%, not 50% so nobody can stop the execs from cashing out unless they can garner 75% of the shareholder vote. Little guys like the retail investor have no say because they have only 7 million shares total. Further, most of them don't vote anyway.

    There is only one positive thing going for this company at this stock level. That is the percentage of shares that are short. It is ripe for a short squeeze.

  • Reply to

    georgespelvin

    by trdr999 Jun 7, 2013 2:17 PM
    georgespelvin@rocketmail.com georgespelvin Jun 10, 2013 4:53 PM Flag

    No. It does not bother me. And I do not live under a bridge. I am not sure how where I live has any impact on the data points I supply. Perhaps you could elaborate on that. I am assuming you are bullish on the stock. Perhaps you could tell us the basis. I doubt that it has anything to do with me, personally. Why are you bullish?

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    to the moon, alice

    by georgespelvin May 31, 2013 5:15 PM
    georgespelvin@rocketmail.com georgespelvin May 31, 2013 5:20 PM Flag

    aha. posted. for now.
    so the comments are:

    1. Cramer is wrong. The margins are not going up. They are going down.
    2. Why did they have ssuch a good outlier year in 2008? The reason is they went public in September 2007 and it is customary and ignored by the SEC even if you prove it to them (can you spell Madoff?) to finagle your revenue. Before you go public you save up lots of revenue and then you report it when it will excite the stock buying public as the founders sell their stock in the IPO. And, that kids, is how it is done.

    Now hopefully this will post.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • georgespelvin@rocketmail.com by georgespelvin May 31, 2013 5:15 PM Flag

    maybe if i do not use percent sign they wont know.

    2008 was 23
    2009 was a tad lower 5
    2010 ditto
    2011 was 6
    2012 was 4
    2013 thus far is one sixth of one

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • body...

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • georgespelvin@rocketmail.com by georgespelvin May 31, 2013 5:06 PM Flag

    ....imagined body...

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • georgespelvin@rocketmail.com georgespelvin May 31, 2013 4:54 PM Flag

    excellent point. I bought way too early and averaged down until i now have five times what I started with. I will sell out as it goes up until I get my investment out and then let the winnings ride unless something important and bad happens. I also see a buyout happening if prices stabilize a couple of dollars from here. That is what these little E&P companies do. They do the dirty work, then sell to a major. When we start exporting NG you will see prices go up and stay.
    This seems to me to be a very smart company.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    will you hear the BOOM ?

    by justjess101 May 30, 2013 9:39 AM
    georgespelvin@rocketmail.com georgespelvin May 31, 2013 4:49 PM Flag

    partially hedged. 30% I think.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • All I do is present the net profit margins. They delete it. For black humor purposes they post the one that says would be interesting to see phone records. The American stock buying public being served by Yahoo Finance.
    You can call someone an #$%$ but not publish financial figures.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • yup.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • georgespelvin@rocketmail.com by georgespelvin May 29, 2013 2:03 PM Flag

    They can do this all they want. All they have to do is say the computer system malfunctioned, or that they only allow so many posts per person. or whatever.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • georgespelvin@rocketmail.com by georgespelvin May 29, 2013 1:57 PM Flag

    It contained only the net profit margins of Athena from 2008 through first quarter 2013.
    Wild.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Thus spake Jim Cramer:

    "TheStreet Ratings rates AthenaHealth as a hold. The company's strengths can be seen in multiple areas, such as its robust revenue growth, largely solid financial position with reasonable debt levels by most measures and expanding profit margins."

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

ATHN
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