Not that hard to answer, really. Look at this chart:
Look at recent dividend histories:
What will be TWO's next dividend...can you tell?
What will be NYMT's?
This is my favorite stock. I recommend it to everyone. Bought in 2010-ish at 35, plan to hold and drip pretty much indefinitely. On the interactive charts, compare AGL (whoops, I mean GAS) to CVX (Chevron). GAS has outperformed even that blue chip growth stock for over two decades. And it has a higher dividend.
Reanalyze then. PCQ started 2011 below 10. I missed that low point, bought in as it started rising. Looks like I bought at 10.92 but don't seem to have captured the exact date.
ESV has better backlog, is a better run company. They've been taking business away from the big players these past three years.
Ensco is and has been the better company for years. But SDRL's stock has massively outperformed ESV's. Its dividend is the main thing holding SDRL aloft. I'm interested in ESV's recent dividend increase -- it's one of my reasons to hold after Raburn leaves. If hefty increases in dividends become a pattern, ESV could skyrocket. Divi trend is one of the main factors to watch in 2014, imo.
Raburn is THE reason I own shares in ESV. So yes, I'm concerned. If I do sell, it will be a combination of factors, though, not a kneejerk reaction to his retirement.
Fear of municipal bankruptcies. I made a bundle off PCQ after Whitman's dire forecasts dropped it to sub $11 range. Got out when it hit 14-ish. Around 13 is fair price, 12-13 a bargain. If it falls below 12 again, back up the truck and load as much as you can. State constitution requires that bondholders be paid first. You have very little risk with this one.
...because of its new mortgage servicing investment.
Warns on mREIT space otherwise. Saw this on SA just now. Source is behind a paywall, but here's the link they provide:
I don't think pcr by itself tells you anything. You need to look at strike price and change in interest wrt strike, exp. date, and option type all together. There's very high interest in Nov $9 and Jan $10 and $12 puts. Call interest is high for Nov $10, Jan $9, and Jan $10. Put buyers bet at some point (possibly in the past) on sub $9 in Nov, but on sub $10 and on sub $12 in Jan. It's not a negative sentiment to bet on share price being sub $12 in Jan. I'm long TWO and I'd bet on that.
The other thing I always question about pcr as sentiment indicator is that it takes two to establish a position -- buyer and seller. Someone took the opposite bet on every open position out there....
Two Harbors core earnings decline in Q3
Core earnings per share of $0.19 vs. $0.21 in Q2. Dividend is $0.28 per share.
Book value of $10.35 per share slips from $10.47 at end of Q2 and compares to today's close $9.22, putting the shares at a 10.9% discount to book.
Aggregate yield of 4% in RMBS portfolio driven by non-agency holdings which generated 9% yield. Net interest spread of 2.8% is up 30 bps from Q2.
Portfolio size of $12.9B, with agency holdings making up 75%, non-agency 23%. Fixed-rate securities make up 70.9% of portfolio, the rest are in adjustables. Portfolio size at end of Q2 was $15.1B.
Repurchased 1.45M shares at average price of $9.23 each.
CC tomorrow at 9 ET at which the new MSR deal with PHH Corp. will be discussed.
Q3 results, press release.TWO -0.2% AH.
Too many factors in play right now to make good short term predictions. Trade or stay but do it based on your long-term strategy, not on today's earnings estimate.