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Ryland Group Inc. Message Board

getintoh20 358 posts  |  Last Activity: 21 hours ago Member since: Sep 21, 2007
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  • Reply to

    I am oil field expert

    by foolagain2000 Dec 4, 2014 10:58 AM
    getintoh20 getintoh20 Dec 4, 2014 11:48 AM Flag

    Your down 70%? Ever heard of stop loess? I won't admit I was that stupid !

  • Deutsche Bank upgraded Mobileye N.V (NYSE: MBLY) from Hold to Buy with a price target of $53 (unchanged). Analyst Rod Lache continues to see significant upside in the stock.

    "We lowered our recommendation on Mobileye to Hold from Buy in early Sept based on valuation. We also wondered whether the Street had sufficiently contemplated the risks (OEMs are obsessive about maintaining multiple sources of supply, and it is difficult to tally contract awards, so there was risk of the Street over-reacting to competitors’ boasts about ‚ADAS‛ contract wins; we also believed that ATP’s for a number of early semi-autonomous contracts could come in below the Street’s assumptions, due to limited functionality). However, MBLY’s shares have declined by 28% since their peak in early Oct. (vs a 5.5% increase in the S&P 500), and now offer 27% upside to our target," said Lache.

    "Moreover, based on our industry checks we believe that the company is exceeding expectations on contract wins. In fact, of the major vision based ADAS contracts that we have identified as having been awarded over the past several months, we believe that MBLY has won 100%, building on the 100% win rate that we have observed in 2013, and accelerating from the 82% win rate that we have calculated since 2008. We continue to observe evidence that competitors are falling behind, and we believe that this may be reinforced over the coming months as several large contracts (involving higher functionality and likely higher ATPs) are awarded. We believe these awards will also allay investor concerns about the future demand for Mobileye’s Trifocal semi-autonomous solutions (with ASPs 3x MBLY’s current level) and will demonstrate that early semi-autonomous systems (which are utilizing a single camera combined with radar and lidar) will not cannibalize demand for its trifocal systems," he added.

  • Hamilton, Bermuda, December 4th, 2014 - Seadrill Limited ("Seadrill") has settled a Total Return Swap agreement (TRS) expiring on December 3, 2014 with 4,000,000 common shares in Seadrill Limited as underlying security. Seadrill has subsequently entered into a new TRS agreement with exposure to 4,000,000 Seadrill Limited common shares. The expiry date for the new TRS is March 3, 2015 and the reference price is NOK96.0243 per share.

    Seadrill currently has a holding of 318,740 of its own treasury shares.

    This information is subject of the disclosure requirements pursuant to section 5-12 of the Norwegian Securities Trading Ac

  • Just like Uncle Carl you are dead wrong! Quiet pumping this pos! At best it's dead money for at least 2 years And everyone but you pumpers think Rig will continue paying a DD.LOL... DD is as good as gone!. RIG is just like DRYS & will fade off into the sunset. Market my words in 2 years Rig will be under $5

  • Reply to

    Boone Pickens sees $100 oil in 12-18 months

    by rpal3 Dec 2, 2014 11:07 PM
    getintoh20 getintoh20 Dec 3, 2014 3:46 PM Flag
    Saudi Arabia may continue to stay away from cuts even if prices continue to move lower: OPEC's biggest producer now expects Brent crude to stabilize at around $60 a barrel, which is a level the Saudis could withstand, according to a Dow Jones report Wednesday.

  • getintoh20 getintoh20 Dec 3, 2014 2:02 PM Flag

    EBITDA for all except Transocean (-8%). We see relative value in Atwood Oceanics and Rowan. Transocean has the biggest contracting challenges both near-term and in the longer-run given a disproportionate mix of older UDW/UK floaters and thus estimates are too high and shares screen worst relative to fair value ($20 PT). Less

  • Reply to

    So how buying on the dip working out?

    by getintoh20 Dec 2, 2014 10:12 PM
    getintoh20 getintoh20 Dec 3, 2014 1:26 PM Flag

    Just to remind you pumpers, RIG is dead!!!! LOl... Keep buying those dips boys.

  • 12/03 Jefferies reiteration hold $20
    12/01 Susquehanna target down neutral $18
    12/01 Guggenheim downgrade neutral $16

    Keep buying those dips boys!

  • Saudi expects oil to stabilize around $60 a barrel: DJ, citing sources

  • Rig well make some where around $4 this year. Nest year they will be dam lucky if they make $2.00. 2016 looks even worse... Keep buying those dips boys!

  • Reply to

    Boone Pickens sees $100 oil in 12-18 months

    by rpal3 Dec 2, 2014 11:07 PM
    getintoh20 getintoh20 Dec 3, 2014 1:06 PM Flag

    Saudi Price just say today that oil would settle around $60 for years to come!

  • Jefferies analyst Eduardo Royes and team explain why it’s better to wait:

    Despite the massive sell-off in shares…we do not yet believe it is time to be long the Offshore Drilling subsector, as neither fundamentals nor valuation paint a compelling enough picture of the group…More importantly, current softness masks the evolution of deepwater drilling to where specifications matter beyond [midwater, or] MW or [ultra-deepwater, or] UDW labels (hurting Transocean, our least preferred name, and Ensco)…

    We wait for the cycle to turn, but have established a normalized earnings framework that ascribes pricing to rigs on a specification basis (e.g. value is placed for items such as derrick and crane capacity, dual BOPs/# of rams and dual activity/mud systems, all of which is detailed herein) in order to help us find relative “winners” and “losers”. Put differently, more general “bifurcation” evolves to more complex “stratification” as we look for widening credit to be given to more capable rigs, even within the UDW, once the market is more balanced…

    Our mid-/large-cap stocks trade at 5.8x, slightly above the 5.5x marker below which the group looks attractive on EV/’16E EBITDA and our estimates are within 5% of Consensus EBITDA for all except Transocean (-8%). We see relative value in Atwood Oceanics and Rowan. Transocean has the biggest contracting challenges both near-term and in the longer-run given a disproportionate mix of older UDW/UK floaters and thus estimates are too high and shares screen worst relative to fair value ($20 PT).

  • The report includes the following:

    - Discoverer Enterprise - Awarded a one-well contract extension in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico at a dayrate of $399,000 ($32 million estimated backlog). The rig's prior dayrate was $615,000.

    - GSF Galaxy III - Awarded a four month contract as an accommodation unit in Denmark at a dayrate of $175,000 ($23 million estimated backlog). The rig's prior dayrate was $160,000.

    - Cajun Express - Awarded a one-well contract extension in Senegal at a dayrate of $487,000 ($15 million estimated backlog). The rig's prior dayrate was $596,000.

    - Discoverer Seven Seas - Customer exercised a one-well option at an undisclosed location at a dayrate of $400,000 ($13 million estimated contract backlog). The rig's prior dayrate was $400,000.

    - The ultra-deepwater floaters Deepwater Discovery and Sedco Express, and the midwater floater GSF Arctic III, are idle.

    - Estimated 2014 planned out-of-service time increased by a net one day. Estimated 2015 planned out-of-service time decreased by a net 225 days, including 173 days associated with Deepwater Discovery and Sedco Express.
    Keep buying those dips boys!

  • Reply to

    So how buying on the dip working out?

    by getintoh20 Dec 2, 2014 10:12 PM
    getintoh20 getintoh20 Dec 2, 2014 10:18 PM Flag

    Evercore ISI Initiated Coverage Sell $16.00
    Deutsche Bank Reiterated Rating Sell $27.00 - $16.00
    Guggenheim Downgrade Buy - Neutral $18
    Canaccord Genuity Initiated Coverage Sell $20.05

    So why are you buying into these noise bleed levels, when analyst are telling to sell?

  • 15 Analyst have sell or underperform 14 hold ( code word sell) & 2 buys
    So why in the hell would you buy this stock? Let me guess Uncle Carl said buy, so u fools bought LOl.... Option players are beating big that by Jan Rig trades under $15. Keep buying those dips boys!

  • The Zephirin Group’s Longdley “Lenny” Zephirin lays out the five steps he thinks Seadrill’s management should take:
    With the recent suspension of the dividends, management’s credibility is at risk. A greater focus on rebuilding credibility, strengthening the balance sheet (debt reduction) should translate into a re-rating of the shares in the near-future.
    Management needs to focus on executing the following: 1) Executing work for the West Navigator which is currently working at a day rate of $610k till Dec-2014 (the rig was part of the Rosneft package and we are modelling a 25% decline for the next day rate); 2) executing contracts or make the decision to postpone a high number of the 17 rigs that are under construction (2 semis, 5 UDW and 10 jack-ups) which are due from 2015; 3) lower the current debt-to-cap of 55.7% to the mid 40% level (the last time debt-to-cap was in the 40% level was in Q306 at 48.4%); 4) sell the tender rigs segment – currently the backlog in the segment is $356 million and finally, 5) execute a buyback of shares at the current level (board authorized up to 10%).

    We expect the shares to continue to decline until a bottom is reached and trade closer to our price objective of $10.00 per share in the near-term – Given the implied potential negative return of 28.2% to our price objective. We rate the shares of Seadrill Ltd. as SELL SPECULATIVE RISK. On an EV/EBITDA basis, SDRL is trading at 7.1x revised 2015 estimates, at 6.7% discount to the peer group’s EV/EBITDA multiple of 7.6x.

  • Pretty much tells u where this going. $15 or lower by Jan. Could see $12 when DD is cut & when oil hits $50 or less

  • This is about supply, not physical demand — there is another demand out there and it is financial demand, and what I am referring to is the positioning of the noncommercial accounts on the NYMEX. The latest Commitment of Traders report shows that this is where the true weakness in demand has been — the so-called “weak hands” of the speculators in the futures and options pits where the net long position has cratered 40% from the highs to the lowest it has been in a good eighteen months.

    But here’s the rub: at 276,213 net long contracts, the positioning is still far above the levels prevailing at the two last fundamental lows in the oil price in February 2009 (110,635 net longs) and February 1998 (17,743 net shorts). Either way, bullish sentiment was far more wiped out at those troughs than is the case right now.

    Tack on rising U.S. production — this is unlikely to change for at least a year once new investments get shelved — and the fact that OPEC does not intend to revisit the issue at a formal meeting for six months, and it is tough to identify a catalyst for the oil price.

  • getintoh20 getintoh20 Dec 2, 2014 6:08 PM Flag

    We no longer see support for a contrarian view that the market overestimated the scope and duration of the offshore spending downturn. Downward pressure on oil prices and a potential for capital markets to become shy to fund newbuild deliveries undercut the tenets of our previous bull thesis. As Seadrill and Transocean remain the most levered to deteriorating offshore market conditions, we see negative data points as an overhang on both companies’ shares. Significant share discounts to NAVs may mark shares closer to a bottom and leave less downside but may present near-term tactical “value traps,” as negative near-term contracting data points and other potential negative catalysts loom. Near term, we believe Seasdrill shares may also suffer from an ownership transition from income to value investors. Transocean shares may see the same fate, with a 2015 dividend cut factored in our estimates, justified, in our view, by potential for further asset write-downs materializing and focus shifts to balance sheet strength

  • Reply to

    Did CEO say div is safe

    by archarch_60477 Dec 2, 2014 4:43 PM
    getintoh20 getintoh20 Dec 2, 2014 5:51 PM Flag

    Free Cash Flows Unlikely To Cover Current Dividend

    Free Cash Flows Unlikely To Cover Current Dividend

    Transocean’s operating cash flows have averaged around $2.15 billion over the last three years, and it seems likely that they will deteriorate going into next year, given the weaker dayrates and utilization rates for ultra-deepwater rigs. The dayrates on Transocean’s recent contracts have been 10-15% lower compared to previous contracts, while ultra-deepwater rig utilization rates have declined by around 7% year-over-year as of Q3 2014. The company’s capital expenditures have averaged over $1.5 billion over the last 3 years, and preliminary capital expenditure guidance for FY 2015 stands at $1.9 billion, largely related to milestone payments for the company’s newbuild program. This means that the company is likely to see free cash flows (operating cash flows, less capex) of under $250 million, which would be insufficient to fund its $1.1 billion annual dividend. While the company could tap into its cash reserves ($2.87 billion as of Q3) or augment its debt load – which is already slightly above the industry average – to fund dividends, this could impact its credit rating. Transocean is just holding on to its investment grade status, with its credit rating standing at BBB- at S&P and Baa3 at Moody’s, with both firms holding a negative ratings outlook. It might make more sense for the company to prune down its dividend, while maintaining financing flexibility at this point.

    Even if the company remains resolute about maintaining its current level of shareholder returns, dividends may not be the best avenue. For instance, the company’s stock price is down by close to 60% year-to-date and its trailing twelve month dividend yield stands at over 15%, which is well ahead of the cost of capital. Shareholders might actually be better off if the company deploys the $1.1 billion sum on share repurchases rather than on dividends, since it could prop up the stock price and potentially be EPS accretive for shareholders in the l Less

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