Activision Blizzard (ATVI), United Airlines (UAL) to Join S&P 500
up $4 in after trade
Will AAL test $34 again? Will $34 hold?
Short Interest (Shares Short) 3,886,700
Short Percent of Float 18.48 %
Short Interest Ratio (Days To Cover) 4.9
Time to make the shorts sweet. Back to $24
•JinkoSolar stock price has been crushed as if fundamentals are deteriorating rapidly. Yet there is little sign of that happening.
•Top and bottom line beats, increased guidance by 20%, Jinko is solidly delivering and is likelyto do so forthe foreseeable future.
•While general market conditions are difficult and the stock is traditionally very volatile, we see considerable upside from here.
There is a rather massive sell-off going on in JinkoSolar (NYSE:JKS) the market leader in China. Whilst the stock, like many other solar stocks, has always been very volatile, the latest sell-off suggest there is deeper trouble.
The selling accelerated after Q2 earnings were published, not helped by a large market sell-off. At first sight, this was rather surprising because the earnings contained quite a few positives, in no particular order:
•Shipments were 913.4MW, a rise of 38.7% for the year, and up 15.9% from Q1.
•Revenue rose 31.6% to of $516.23M beating expectations by $48.21M.
•Non-GAAP earnings per ADS rose to $1.02, beating expectations by 20 cents.
•GAAP earnings per ADS came in at $0.40, which according to Yahoo was half that of analyst expectations for $0.83. However, we're pretty sure that the $0.83 average analyst expectation was for the non-GAAP earnings (and Zacks agrees).
•The company is operating at full capacity
•In house module cost was $0.42 in Q2 and will fall to $0.40 by the end of the year
•Gross margin was 20.7% in the second quarter of 2015 compared with 20.3% in the first quarter of 2015 and 22.6% in the second quarter of 2014.
•The company raised guidance for the year 2015 by some 20% from 3.3GW-3.8GW to 4GW-4.5GW
Combine these with the following:
Global solar demand remains robust, allowing us to build upon our leadership position in a number of key and new emerging markets. We are well positioned in China as the market leader to benefit from the expected strong demand during the second half of 2015. We also made substantial progress in the U.S. where shipments increased by 115% sequentially [Q2 PR]
And (from the Q2CC)
We expect to see demand improve through the rest of 2015 and even into the first quarter of 2016 thanks to the signed contracts currently in our pipeline.
Their own electricity production, which is a more stable and higher margin business, is continuing to grow strongly, from the Q2 PR:
Solar power output during the second quarter also exceeded our expectations by reaching 203 GWh, up approximately 75.8% sequentially while generating RMB177.9 million in revenue. With the seasonal effects of Chinese New Year behind us and new projects ramping up to full capacity, we expect this higher-margin business to generate an increasing share of the profits during the second half of 2015.
Blood bath tomorrow! Looks like JKS will make a new 2 year low. $14 tomorrow?
The sell-side firm believes that JinkoSolar remains the lowest cost Tier 1 manufacturer with cost now at 42 cents per watt. Along with the Malaysia facility, the company remains best positioned to ship tariff-free modules to the US providing above-peer margins for the short run.
The sell-side firm increased its FY15 EPS from $3.98 to $4.67, while boosting its full-year 2016 EPS forecast from $6.12 to $6.29.
The solar company reported a revenue of $516.2 million during the three-month period, which surpassed consensus estimates of $468 million. The beat was primarily driven by higher third party shipments to the US and China, and lower than guided downstream shipments. Gross margin increased by 40 basis points (bps) to 20.7%.
Out of nine analysts who cover the stock, six rate it a Buy, while two suggest a Hold. The 12-month average target price stands at $33.13, implying upward potential of 97% over the current stock trading price of $16.82 at the closing price on Friday.
Can we say this is once in a life time to make some serious money going long at $16.80
Flash China General Manufacturing PMI. at 47.1 in August (47.8 in July). 77-month low.
Flash China General Manufacturing Output Index at 46.6 in August (47.1 in July). 45-month low.
Commenting on the Flash China General Manufacturing PMI data, Dr. He Fan, Chief Economist at Caixin Insight Group said: “The Caixin Flash China General Manufacturing PMI for August has fallen further from July’s two-year low, indicating that the economy is still in the process of bottoming out. But overall, the likelihood of a systemic risk remains under control and the structure of the economy is still improving. There is still pressure on the front of maintaining growth rates, and to realize the goal set for this year the government needs to fine tune fiscal and monetary policies to ensure macroeconomic stability and speed up the structural reform. This will lead the market to confidence and renew the vigor of the economy.”
NAND flash prices will be under downward pressure later in the second half of 2015 due to oversupply, according to DRAMeXchange.
"Smartphone, tablet and notebook vendors are lowering their sales forecasts for the second half of this year due to macroeconomic conditions that have weakened the demand growth for flash-based end products," said DRAMeXchange assistant VP Sean Yang. The NAND flash market will likely shift into oversupply later in the second half of 2015 prompting chipmakers to cut their prices, Yang indicated.
Disappointing end-market demand in the second half of 2015 will also negatively affect NAND flash chipmakers' performance during the period, Yang suggested.
Samsung saw its NAND flash business post a 13.8% sequential increase in the second quarter, outperforming its peers, DRAMeXchange said. Samsung's NAND flash revenues reached US$2.71 billion in the second quarter, when the company enjoyed brisk demand for smartphones and a bigger share of the PC-use SSD market, DRAMeXchange indicated.
"Diversification of the SSD product lines is the main focus of Samsung's NAND flash strategy for this year," Yang noted. In addition, Samsung will start to deliver samples of its third-generation 3D NAND flash to clients for verification at the end of the third quarter, followed by mass production and shipments in the fourth quarter.
SanDisk, on the contrary, saw its NAND flash revenues decrease 8% on quarter to US$1.1 billion. DRAMeXchange attributed its revenue decline to "delays in the verification processes for enterprise SSDs and embedded NAND flash." Another factor was the loss of a major client-SSD customer, DRAMeXchange disclosed.
Believing blended DRAM prices could fall another 20% or more between now and early next year, and PC DRAM prices by over 30%, Baird's Tristan Gerra has downgraded Micron (NASDAQ:MU) to Neutral, and cut his target by $21 to $15.
Gerra, who is downgrading at much lower levels than those who did so in June, doesn't expect Micron's gross margin and EPS to bottom until the February quarter. In addition to PC DRAM sales, he thinks enterprise server and mobile DRAM demand is soft, and that channel inventories are high.
Galaxy S6 and China issues are seen impacting mobile DRAM demand, and Microsoft's Windows 10 pricing strategy - license discounts are offered for systems with less than 4GB of DRAM - affecting PC demand.
Gerra also argues manufacturing process upgrades will lead supply to exceed demand again in 2016, if production cuts don't happen. On the bright side, he doesn't think DRAM prices will reach cash costs, unlike in prior down cycles.
Micron Technology stock price target cut to $15 from $36 at RW Baird
August 17, 2015 5:56 PM EDT Send to a Friend
Cowen analyst Jeffrey Osborne reiterated his Outperform rating and $35 price target on SunEdison
Baird analyst Ben Kallo reiterating a Neutral rating and $35 price target on SunEdison (NYSE: SUNE) after the company announced a construction warehouse facility providing $1B of liquidity, which will help SUNE complete projects in 2016. The facility will address liquidity concerns.
Kallo commented, "This facility will be helpful in executing on SUNE's development of projects during 2016. The warehouse facility consists of $300M of equity committed by West Street Infrastructure Partners III (WSIP) of Goldman Sachs (GS; Not Covered) and $700M of debt led by Bank of America (BAC; Neutral), Morgan Stanley (MS; Not Covered), and Deutsche Bank (DB; Not Covered). The debt includes a five-year $500M term loan, and a four-year $200M revolving credit facility. Additionally, SUNE has the option to increase the warehouse facility by up to $1B (to ~$2B total). The warehouse is expected to be formed by October 31, 2015."
SUNE also announced the offering of $500M of perpetual convertible preferred stock, which provides additional liquidity but makes the capital structure more complex.
Brean Capital maintained a Buy rating on Vipshop Holdings (NYSE: VIPS), and cut the price target to $25.00 (from $30.00)