3/28/2016 Robert W. Baird Lower Price Target Outperform $26.00 - $25.00 View Rating Details Tweet This Rating Share This Rating on StockTwits
3/28/2016 Leerink Swann Lower Price Target Outperform $25.00 - $23.00 View Rating Details Tweet This Rating Share This Rating on StockTwits
3/28/2016 Ladenburg Thalmann Downgrade Buy - Neutral View Rating Details Tweet This Rating Share This Rating on StockTwits
3/28/2016 Jefferies Group Upgrade Underperform - Hold $16.00 - $19.00
The chief executive of Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc (VRX.TO), which is under scrutiny for hiking the price of older drugs, has been summoned to testify at a U.S. congressional hearing on April 27. The Senate Special Committee on Aging hearing comes as the Canadian-based company is coping with a variety of federal investigations into its accounting practices.
AAAAh the poster child loser who loves to delete his postings. FYI loser I bought another 4000 shares at $21 bringing my average under $25.50. Sold all 9000 shares at $27.30 & $27.33. Un-like you loser who is still holding from the mid forties.. Can we say loser? Loser.....
Sure hope you took my advice & sold this pos for a small profit. Other wise welcome to the bagholder club! Enjoy! See you at $15......
How's that long position working out for you slim? Lol... Like I said, Amag is heading to the mid teens. After all earnings are around $.80 to $1.00 for 2016. $1 Billion in debt, & no new drugs in the pipeline. At best fair value is around $10 to $15.
Earning estimates are base on Gaap estimate's. Non-gaap earnings is around .80 to $1.00. Also Amag has no pipeline for new drugs. Amag looks cheap , but it's not. Sell now before they gap it down in the low teens.
Barclays Downgrade Overweight - Equal Weight $135.00 - $34.00 Dang $100 drop in pt. Hell why not just say ZERO!
Mizuho Securities downgraded Valeant Pharmaceuticals from Neutral to Underperform with a price target of $18.00 (from $70.00).
"After careful consideration of comments from the earnings call, we view 3-year growth forecasts as unreliable and see the business as contracting," analyst Irina Koffler commented. "We also expect erosion of the company's topline to exceed the exclusivity risk guided by Valeant due to heavier rebating and divestitures required for debt repayment."
Koffler said they don't trust Valeant's 2016 or 3-year growth forecasts and our 2016 estimates are lower (i.e., they model $10.4B in revenue and $8.04 EPS relative to guidance of $11.0-11.2B and $8.50-9.50).
They also worry about liquidity and an ongoing insider trading class action suit that they believe could burden the liability side of the balance sheet.
The Underperform rating is predicated on an equally weighted combination of DCF analysis ($15) and a more conservative SOTP that employs lower sales multiples applied to updated 2015 numbers ($21) for a blended $18 PT.
Not to mention they are burning thru their cash. No way I hell can they ever pay off their $30 Billion in debt
Nomura Securities downgraded Valeant Pharmaceuticals from Buy to Neutral with a price target of $60.00 (from $175.00), saying they have lost conviction in the company and management credibility needs rebuilding.
Analyst Shibani Malhotra commented, "We are downgrading Valeant shares to Neutral from Buy and reducing our DCF-based target price to $60 from $175 following a far more significant reduction in 2016 guidance than we had anticipated. We admit upfront, we have been humbled by our stock call on VRX, which we have defended despite the continuing spate of bad news, as we believed that despite the noise surrounding the company, much of the fundamental businesses had been performing well. Despite the fact that our new PT for $60 represents 79.1% potential upside, we do not expect VRX shares to outperform the market near term, as we have lost confidence in management’s ability to understand its own business and to provide reliable guidance. We no longer have the required conviction to rate VRX a Buy and are thus moving to the sidelines. A few key reasons:
Management has lost almost all credibility with us and investors, as reflected in the 51.5% reduction in the stock price today (versus -0.2% for the S&P 500).
The company clearly does not have a handle on its business performance given the steep reduction in guidance over merely three months. This disappointing guidance today has forced us to revisit our view on certain key businesses that are becoming more difficult to analyze given increasingly challenging healthcare and payer dynamics.
There is a lack of visibility into potentially binary events such as the filing of the company’s 10-K and the conclusions from final Ad Hoc committee review results.
She added, "We recognize that while VRX no longer seems to trades on fundamentals, there are sources of potential upside such as approvals for new products, including Oral Relistor, Latanoprostene-Bunod and Brodlaumab. Additionally, a clear review from
Analysts at CIBC downgrade VRX to sell reduce pt from $90 to $30
Think again! Copy & past this from another poster. They are in real trouble
There are two breaches. The credit facility is breached today (March 15). They have until April 29 to cure. The bondholder breach is March 31 and they have 60 days from that to cure it. To cure all they need to do is file a 10K. One stupid little SEC report, right? Well not so fast -- 10K needs to be certified!!
The company is focusing on the bank (credit facility) breach. This tells me that they are unsure if they will get a 10K filed by April 29. So they want to get the banks to give them more time. I think the banks are likely to extend VRX some time because they do not want the mess of a default -- they just want to get paid back and are happy to keep lending money if the company is healthy.
Bond holders are a different story. With the bonds at 75 cents (today), they likely would grant an extension because they want to bonds back at 90 but if the bonds were trading at 30 cents, they would want the company to default so they could liquidate and get their 100 cents back.
The problem is this:
There are accounting irregularities and the CPA/auditors are refusing to sign off on their unaudited financials. This means their financials are clearly BS. Auditors have been fined many millions so they are not going to robosign anything.
It is very likely that they are working hard to get financials certified by April 29 but they cannot promise VRX they will. The auditors dont like to be in this position since they have a duty to VRX to perform on their audit (but then they have a duty to provide a very accurate accounting). So I think VRX likely will get their 10K filed in time but it will be ugly. VRX has been burning cash like a madman. The problem is people think "ok, let's just sell assets and get things paid off". It doesn't work like that. The company goes to BK.
S&P Capital reduce their price target from $90 to $30.
VRX downgraded to "sector underperform", target reduced to $24
After such a drastic price decline, one might think VRX is a bargain. Not even close. Those purchasing Valeant now would be buying a highly overvalued stock with a long history of misleading accounting. These are not exactly the characteristics of a quality investment.
In order to justify its current price of $36/share, the company would need to grow NOPAT by 15% compounded annually for the next 8 years. In this scenario, Valeant would be generating $29 billion in revenue, greater than AstraZeneca's (NYSE:AZN) 2015 revenue.
Even in an ideal scenario, in which Valeant focuses on internal growth and not destructive acquisitions, VRX still has significant downside. If Valeant can grow NOPAT by 9% compounded annually for the next decade, the stock is worth $23/share today - a 36% downside.
Type messageHas The House Of Cards Finally Collapsed?
As early as June 2014, we pointed out Valeant was presenting itself in a misleading way. Ultimately, the company was relying on non-GAAP metrics to present its cash flow as highly positive, when in fact, the true cash flows of the business have been highly negative. This contrast between cash flow calculations is a topic of much debate between bears and bulls of Valeant and really gets at the heart of why non-GAAP metrics continually fail investors when analyzing a company. Analysis using Valeant's reported "Cash Earnings" weren't getting a true picture of the company, as can be seen in Figure 1.
The company's non-GAAP "cash earnings" have grown from $421 million in 2010 to $3.55 billion over the latest trailing-twelve months (TTM). In reality, free cash flow has been highly negative with a cumulative -$38.4 billion in losses over the same time frame. Cumulative non-GAAP earnings during the same time are $11.2 billion.
Non-GAAP Doesn't Pay Down Debt
As seen above Valeant's true cash flow is not only much lower than Valeant would have investors believe, it is also largely negative. While management can prop up shares by touting non-GAAP results, those results don't help pay debt covenants because the true cash flow is not available. Debt covenants may soon become just another issue in the already long list if Valeant defaults on its bond indentures. We already know Valeant has raised significant capital, as its debt has increased from $372 million in 2009 to $30 billion over the last twelve months. Without a sale of assets, one has to wonder how well Valeant can service such debt because it won't be happening with non-GAAP "cash earnings."
Warning Signs Were All Around
The warning signs at Valeant have long been in clear view, if you looked past the positive analyst sentiment, excellent non-GAAP results, and management rhetoric.
1.In June 2014, we noted that Valeant was presenting its business in a misleadin