Like how you forgot to post the up side numbers. worldwide ex. China for Q2 2015: 3.7% vs. 1.0%; Brazil Q3 2015: 71.9% vs. 65.0%; Mexico Q2 2015: 21.7% vs. 14.0%.
Ross Stores' FQ4 beat has been accompanied by guidance for FQ1 EPS of $0.69-$0.72 and FY16 (ends Jan. '17) EPS of $2.59-$2.71, below consensus estimates of $0.76 and $2.75. Shares are nonetheless up 0.7% after hours to $56.60, after initially trading lower post-earnings.
•The apparel retailer has hiked its quarterly dividend by 15% to $0.135/share (1% forward yield). The next dividend is payable on March 31 to shareholders on record as of March 14.
•Same-store sales rose 4% Y/Y in both FQ4 and FY15, and are expected to be up 1%-2% in both FQ1 and FY16. CEO Barbara Rentler: "As we enter 2016, we continue to face our own challenging multi-year comparisons in an increasingly uncertain and volatile macro-economic and retail environment. As a result, while we hope to do better, we believe it is prudent to maintain a somewhat cautious outlook when forecasting sales and earnings for the coming year."
•GAAP costs/expenses rose 8% Y/Y in FQ4 to $2.84B (compares with 7% revenue growth), leading op. margin to drop 40 bps Y/Y to 12.7%. Ross states "higher merchandise margin and tight expense control were more than offset by the timing of packaway-related costs."
•$700M was spent to buy back 13.7M shares in FY15; Ross expects to use up the $700M remaining on its buyback authorization in FY16. The company ended FQ4 with $765M in cash/investments and $396M in debt.
Mizuho Securities downgraded Diplomat Pharmacy from Buy to Neutral with a price target of $30.00 (from $44.00) on valuation.
Analyst Ann Hynes commented, "We are downgrading shares of Diplomat Pharmacy (DPLO) post last night’s initial 2016 guidance of $0.84-$0.89 compared to our estimate of $1.10 and consensus of $1.00. Adjusted EBITDA is $116mm-$123mm versus consensus of $132mm and our estimate of $136mm, which is 12% below our estimate at the mid-point. Given the guidance miss, we do not think DPLO will command a premium valuation multiple any longer. As a result, our new $30 price target (versus $44 previously) is based on 20.0x 2016E EV/EBITDA on our newly lowered estimates versus 22.5x previously." More like a $10 stock.
RBC Capital downgraded Valeant Pharmaceuticals from Outperform to Sector Perform with a price target of $85.00 (from $194.00). Another pumper dying on the grape vine. See u at $40
. The company said that is unable to predict how much longer the probe will continue or what the outcome of it will be but expects it might incur "significant" costs in connection with the investigation, regardless of the outcome. Horizon Pharma added that it might also become subject to similar investigations by other government bodies.
Horizon Pharma slips after disclosing DOJ subpoena, Q4 results
Shares of Horizon Pharma (HZNP) slipped in afternoon trading after the company reported quarterly results and disclosed that it received a government subpoena requesting information related to its patient assistance programs. QUARTERLY RESULTS: Before the market open, Horizon Pharma reported fourth quarter adjusted earnings per share of 64c on revenue of $244.5M, beating analysts' consensus estimates of 62c and $240.82M, respectively. The company also backed its guidance for fiscal year 2016, saying it expects revenue of $1.025B-$1.05B and adjusted EBITDA of $505M-$520M. Analysts expect Horizon Pharma to report revenue of $1.03B for FY16. GOVERNMENT SUBPOENA: In a regulatory filing released today, Horizon Pharma said that it received a subpoena in November 2015 from the U.S. Attorney's Office for the Southern District of New York asking for documents and information related to its patient assistance programs. The company said that is unable to predict how much longer the probe will continue or what the outcome of it will be but expects it might incur "significant" costs in connection with the investigation, regardless of the outcome. Horizon Pharma added that it might also become subject to similar investigations by other government bodies. On its Q4 earnings conference call, Horizon Pharma Chairman and CEO Timothy Walbert elaborated on the subpoena, saying that there are "no specific allegations" against the company and that it is complying with the investigation. STREET RESEARCH: UBS said that Horizon Pharma's weakness related to the subpoena is a buying opportunity. The analyst added that any investigation into the company will take years to play out and that fundamentals at Horizon Pharma continue to improve. PRICE ACTION: In afternoon trading, Horizon Pharma slipped 10.87% to $17.64.
Lin believes that following the price correction, the risk/reward profile of the stock has become balanced, and mentioned that better than anticipated customer adds and operating leverage drove a 12 percent earnings beat in 4Q15.
The company reported 65 percent year-on-year revenue growth, ahead of the expectations and guidance, driven by robust year-on-year active customer growth of 58 percent and per customer spending growth of 6 percent year-on-year.
"New active customer adds reached a historical high at 8.4mn, driven by aggressive promotions, with a declining customer loss rate," Lin stated.
Non-GAAP EPS grew 53 percent year-on-year to Rmb1.18. However, the analyst believes that the 1Q16 guidance of 37-41 percent year-on-year growth was conservative and below consensus.
"According to Analysys, VIPS' MAU growth remained resilient in January. Given a higher comparison base, slowing macro and lack of big promotions, we think the company may be conservatively guiding 1Q16 vs, our forecast of +41 percent year on year growth," Lin pointed out.
In addition, channel checks suggest that although Vipshop might have become marginally more expensive since 2014, it was still the most competitive flash sales channel
Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $0.18 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.02 better than the Capital IQ Consensus of $0.16, rev +65% to $2.15 bln vs. $1.92 bln consensus, primarily driven by the growth in the numbers of total active customers, repeat customers, total orders, as well as the increasing revenue contribution from the mobile platform. The number of active customers for the fourth quarter of 2015 increased by 58% to 19.8 million from 12.5 million in the prior year period. The number of total orders for the fourth quarter of 2015 increased by 67% to 64.9 million from 38.9 million in the prior year period.
•Co issues downside guidance for Q1, sees Q1 revs of RMB 11.8-12.3 bln vs. $12.51 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate.
37% to %43 growth rate & the market is disappointed? Really?
For the first quarter of 2016, the Company expects its total net revenue to be between RMB11.8 billion and RMB12.3 billion, representing a year-over-year growth rate of approximately 37% to 43%. These forecasts reflect the Company's current and preliminary view on the market and operational conditions, which is subject to change.
Vipshop sells off after issuing light Q1 guidance
Though Vipshop (NYSE:VIPS) beat Q4 estimates, the company is guiding for Q1 revenue of RMB11.8B-RMB12.3B (+37%-43% Y/Y, equal to $1.81B-$1.88B), largely below an RMB12.29B consensus.
Metrics: Active customers rose 58% Y/Y in Q4 to 19.8M, and total orders 67% to 64.9M. Mobile accounted for 82% of GMV vs. 66% a year ago.
Financials: Gross margin fell 80 bps Y/Y to 24.1%. Operating expenses were 19.6% of revenue vs. 21.2% a year ago. $130M was spent on buybacks. Vipshop ended 2015 with $513M in cash and $626M in convertible debt
And AMAG stills trades under $26? Unreal! Come longs it's time to blow the #$%$ shorts out of the water. Should be trading above $30 tomorrow, $40 by next earnings report.
AMAG Pharmaceuticals (AMAG) to Join S&P SmallCap 600
Left's Thesis And Maris' Target
Valeant's relationship with Philidor was the heart of Citron and Andrew Left's short thesis on the stock in October 2015; the firm said Valeant used the segment to create "phantom" sales.
Valeant later denied the report, and in the time since, many Wall Street analysts have stuck by the stock's side. The notable exception is Wells Fargo analyst David Maris, who started the stock at Underperform last Friday.
Maris forecast 42 percent downside at the time of his report, showing that historical data indicated a greater-than-50 percent chance of bankruptcy.
Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc. likely needs to restate some of its previous financial results based on the findings of an internal investigation into its business, according to people familiar with the matter.
The potential revisions concern revenue that Valeant booked when its drugs were shipped to a distributor, some of the people said. The period in question is late 2014 and early 2015, some people said.
The drug company's board has been meeting in recent days, and a decision on the potential revision hasn't yet been finalized, some of the people said. The company has until next week to report fourth-quarter earnings or seek an extension.
Pharmaceutical companies typically are allowed to treat shipments to distributors as revenue, but because of Valeant's extremely close ties to the distributor in question, the sales may require a different accounting treatment, the people said.
Another issue is whether the sales to the distributor, Philidor Rx Services LLC, should have been reported as related-party transactions, one of the people said. Valeant had an option to buy Philidor, and Valeant officials were heavily involved at the pharmacy in its early days, The Wall Street Journal has reported.