In OC California, Cox is the only option for high speed internet. Cox can charge Netflix anything they want. There are no other high speed ISPs in my area.
Most likely it will open around $392, but as soon as it opens, the stock and calls will be sold aggressively.
Heavy selling of calls (people will want to lock in profits) will force the market makers to short the stock to hedge their books. The short interest is at a record low level, not many shorts to support the stock at these levels.
And if you look at their earnings numbers, every number has a Madoff-like or Enron-like unrealistic feel to it, every number is perfectly doctored by a little bit just to beat analyst consensus in each category. $7.3 billion of liabilities is hidden off balance sheet, and when the analyst asked about it, CFO said it increased by $700 million (but if you do the math, it actually increased by $900 million, from $6.4B to $7.3B ).
Why was he lying? $200 million is not an insignificant rounding error.
It's a loss for Netflix whose heavy bandwidth consumption has drawn the ire of numerous ISPs (many of whom it directly or indirectly competes with), as well as other major Web traffic sources.
NFLX Insiders One Year:
If there were discussions, they would not be selling.
Multiple studies have consistently shown that holding all else equal, subjects will predict positive outcomes (i.e. "NFLX will be 300+") to be more likely than negative outcomes (i.e. "dip below $200" or plunge to $0.00)
Wishful thinking is the formation of beliefs and making decisions according to what might be pleasing to imagine instead of by appealing to evidence, rationality, or reality
Video streaming is a crowded segment led by online players such as Netflix, Hulu, Amazon Prime and Apple's iTunes. And some brick-and-mortar retailers, including Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Toys 'R Us also have gotten in the action.
Why would people pay $8 a month today to watch a failed 2006 show that no one wanted to watch for free in 2006?
The stock will have a violent reversal, be very careful, extremely overextended with RSI 75.