What's interesting is that people gobbled up 26AUG calls, amazingly just prior to this announcement. Imagine that? A corrupt man finding a corrupt nation to do a large portion of his business in!!!
Tazmann, I'm talking about zero actual or reliable (one of the two) guidance on laser. If you're wondering where I got late 2012 for laser from, you just haven't been around that long OR you haven't been paying attention. It is unequivocally 2 years later as of Q4 2014 (this year).
Even in early 2013, CEO Rich Gelfond adds that new process, to be rolled out beginning in late 2013, “is going to usher in the age of laser technology in a broader way.”
IMAX cameras and 15/70 actually mean nothing without large screens and large screens mean nothing anymore (save ~50 of them at lower margins due to high print costs) without laser. Laser is the crux of the issue here. And here we sit with ZERO guidance other than.......yep, we're 2 years beyond first promised schedule. Still holding 50% of shares, but glad I dumped from $30 on down to $28.
Just hit the new low. On many peoples' radars, their software is telling them to sell. Gelfond's propietary software is alerting him that it's time to award himself and his cronies some a wack load of Options today. Ding Ding Ding Ding....
You mean the laser roll-out that's already 2 years behind schedule and has them now saying that a couple of demonstration systems will be available at the end of 2014/early 2015 rather than a complete roll-out....? That laser system? That management? Let's call a spade a spade here. Gelfond has done nothing for this company. He takes credit monetarily and reputationally for all the hard work that his minions, including Foster, have done. It's often pondered where a company would be without it's CEO, but with Gelfond and Wescheisters we know where IMAX would be.......it'd be north of $100M richer in cash and shareholder value.
Him taking credit for success in China, the only real action that might be attributed to him, is also laughable in my books. Taking success for low margin expansion (JV's in China aren't nearly as attractive as sales likely would be) isn't all that admirable. If any country in the world was ripe for going in with a Sales Only pitch, it was China....the Chinese film board and many middlemen make JV expansion there pretty darn unappealing as we see with the current lack of profits coming out of there, despite stellar PSAs.
Agreed. A ruling in Canada, True North Strong and Free, means nothing. However, hopefully IMAX China is on this guy. The fact that this theft has the potential to SIGNIFICANTLY devalue what a couple of Chinese Investment firms just paid many millions for (i.e. fractional ownership of IMAX buinsess in China) means more than anything. They are probably on this guy like a hawk. He probably fears for his life every day (or he should if he was smart enough).
Fresh off its almost $7-million court victory against a former employee found to have copied its film technology and started a rival business in China, IMAX Corp. is hoping a new Canadian ruling will help persuade the Chinese government to disassociate itself from its competitor.
The courts found former IMAX employee Gary Tsui copied its film technology and started a rival business in China.
“He’s a national and they’ve been supportive of him,” IMAX counsel Sarit Batner says of the Chinese government’s support for film projects like the rival DMAX started up by Gary Tsui, a former software engineer at the Canadian-based digital cinema company.
Batner, a partner at McCarthy Tétrault LLP, made the comment following Superior Court Justice Todd Archibald’s July 3 ruling awarding IMAX $6 million in damages for conversion and misuse of confidential information and trade secrets against Tsui as well as several companies associated with him, including Sunway Digital Inc.
In addition, Archibald ordered them to pay IMAX $456,000 for disgorgement of profits and awarded $50,000 in punitive damages against Tsui. The judgment also included $300,000 in costs to IMAX.
“From a technical perspective, the only plausible explanation how Sunway was able to compete against IMAX in the 2D to 3D conversion business so quickly and without any significant investment in research and development is that Tsui stole the 2D to 3D technology from IMAX,” wrote Archibald.
The case centres on Tsui’s use of IMAX’s 2D and 3D film conversion software that it had been developing for decades. In November 2009, Tsui resigned from IMAX. Around that time, his Sunway Digital Inc. company won a competition against IMAX for the Hangzhou Threatre project in China after underbidding his employer by 13 per cent.
In late November 2009, IMAX uncovered e-mails to Tsui from his wife that linked him to Sunway. He left for China after the company fired him. IMAX has since been taking action against him and the various companies associated with DMAX.
After one of the people Tsui worked with on the Chinese project came forward to say what happened, IMAX was able to get an Anton Piller order for computer evidence that backed up its case. While it attempted to access Tsui’s computer at his home in Canada, it “was intentionally destroyed at the Anton Piller search,” Archibald noted in IMAX Corp. v. Trotum Systems Inc.
According to Batner, Tsui’s family members shut themselves in the bedroom when a lawyer showed up to execute the order.
“When they handed it over, it had quite literally been hacked with a screwdriver,” she says.
“It was very dramatic,” she says of the circumstances surrounding the case.“You get this often in a civil case.”
According to Batner, the proceedings so far include an outstanding warrant for Tsui’s arrest for contempt of court as he has yet to return to Canada.
“Gary Tsui is still very much in the film business in China,” says Batner, who notes the plan now is to get the court order certified and sent to China in the hopes the Chinese government will take notice of it. A court action in China is ongoing as well.
As for the Canadian action, Batner says her client was happy with the recent ruling.
“They’re very pleased that they were able to have their day in court. They feel satisfied that the Canadian legal system didn’t throw up its hands.”
All you gotta read is "In fact, if we include our F2014 forecast and calculate the EBITDA CAGR from 2010 to 2014, we get 4%."
What's amazing is that We actually have people come on here and laud management for their performance. Backlog, international expansion, exceptional performance and over 4 years just a 4% annual gain. The product is there. The business model is there. The lack of performance is there too. Acknowledge it all and let's move on to something more constructive,
It's hard to tell he's lying......with all that plastic surgery and botox. What a pathetic man on all fronts. "I've been at the helm for 20 years, not 5!!!!!!"
That was precious, indeed. He cares about his shareholders....yet, by pure luck, somehow he times the top of share price every time he sells..........orrrr he makes it fall.
He actually has the nerve to be make himself out to be the victim. That's as disengenuous as I've ever heard him be. Kind of makes me ill, actually.
I couldn't agree more with this post and that of Troll. Imax has not succeeded because of BradRich, it has succeeded INSPITE of them. The technology, invented by a bunch of old Canadians didn't figure out a successful business model for 30 years. They were gear heads without a gameplan. bradRich didn't have a gameplan either other than to rape and pillage the company and then dump the IP for pennies. Even by Rich's own admittance, they didn't orchestrate anything (a successful business model)...., they flubbed everything they touch and then, by chance, they readiness that is the technology led them out of a dark closet ...... The on screen product found a way to finally sell itself and grow......despite everything RICHbRaD did. There is no genius here. Execution has been a joke. Look no further than the platinum plated pension plan that RICHBRAd arranged for themselves,......and no one else in the company. Look at the cash salaries and bonuses sanctioned by his board of buddies. This company is soooooooo ripe for a new board and CEO, its stinks. The shareholders need it, and the fruits are big enough that it should be pursued. No one will buy this outright with the $53m bonus that Gelfond stands to gain on a sale. What it needs is an activist investor to come in, clean up the board and can Rich for performance issues. The problem is, it's a lot of effort for not that much upside. Rich has written in protection clauses, so, why would an activist come here for a $1B upside when you can go elsewhere, have less roadblocks and make more. Tis company is destined to rot under this existing leadership team, and I'm starting to believe that this will happen regardless of laser, which will,only cover 100 or 200 screens in several years. Maybe the only angle that can really take Imax to the next level is home theatre systems for the filthy rich.....but that's a short straw to grasp at. Avatar and Star Wars will look wicked from a quarterly perspectiv
I did a quick search a couple of months ago and I know that I'm drastically understating the values. I went through some SEDI records and I've discoved that it "appears" Brad Richchesler has milked this company of $50M+ since 2009 - simply a member of the board, all pending verification. $50,511,346.69, to be exact.
Amiable Doug, I have always respected the technical content of your posts. they have always been concise and spot on. this post, was definitely something different , but maybe even more so appreciated becaus e your passion and frustration are evident. I feel your pain. after doing some homework on you, I can tell by your very nature you invest in things -probably technologies- that you beleive to the core about. As a fellow Canadian (Grew up in ONT and now in Cowtown) i grew up with Imax on my doorstep in Toronto at the one the only cinesphere at Ontario Place. I remember my parents ponying up to take me to a couple of flicks at here in the 80's. I have never seen anything with my eyes that were as majestic and inspiring as that........until 2009, when I saw Avatar in Imax 3d. The next trading day, I went out and bought a boatload of Imax shares. I've been averaging up since $13. Imax became my largest holding ever. Never sold a share. Ever. Not until this March that is. Unloaded 50%. Adding 3 theatres in a quarter for a company with this kind of brand recognition and quality is a damn joke. I am not a quarter to quarter investor, but that number and the fact that domestic PSAs continue to lose their lustre is worrying to me. That could all be offset by a successful rollout for laser, which I gather is what all the customers are waiting for, but Gelfond is 2 yrs short on promises already. If this continues the likelihood of imax getting clobbered over the short term is high, and deserved. It's no different than RIM delaying the launch of the Qnx platform and BB10. It doesn't matter if you have a technically superior product if its later than others'. I wish tan activist investor would come along and really shake up this company. elf one a,d Brad have reaped well over a hundred million combined from this company.....and only stand to gain much more. My disappointment is in chorus with yours while other opportunities have flown by. Anger.
I don't think the valuation of Imax is at all based on Laser. I think the overwhelming majority of Its valuation is tied into to an expanding network of high margin theatres which necessitates a superior brand supported by a superior product. That's as simply as I can put what the basis of the current investment thesis is. Laser may be $5 max of this valuation. You know better than I that this first gen of laser projectors is only for approx. 100 to 200 theatres max, so even if they execute on current target, it's not a $50 stock on that basis.
Nolan comes out with an Imax movie every 2 or 3 years. That's not a sustainable business model. Gravity was a smash hit in IMaX, and guess what, it probably didn't look much different on our screens vs.mothers due to the all digital format. Film is going the way of the dodo bird and thou it may be the best format available, keep in mind that it is still going the same path. Nolan ain't a business model. Pitcairn is right, and as I stated, Laser is everything and right now I have very little confidence. If we have another 10 install quarter with a backlog of 400 screens, I'm going to puke. Net 3 screens, really, but who's counting.
Ptica, I think this is a real possibility; if I was an theatre operator, I'd want to limit customer confusion, changing ticket prices and outages due to upgrades. In itself, this is,understandable. The problem with you statement IF it is true is that installs could be getting hung up significantly if Laser is delayed. Unfortunately, Gelfond has inspired zero confidence on delivering it....it's already 2 years late.....and he's providing typical Gelfondisms in discussing delivery times. Ya got hundreds of theatres lined up and no widget to deliver.
I'm still a Big believer in the long term, but I believe this is dead money until Interstellar, so, again, I've pared down my position to about 50% of my total. I'm parking my cash elsewhere in other investments until August at least.
For the first time ever (been in since 2009), in the last two weeks I have pared down my position in IMAX by ~35%. I believe the long-term prospects for both revenue and profit growth are fantastic, but like the market, Gelfond hasn't presented a compelling enough short-term business case for me to stick in 100%. He's provided no great guidance on installations or laser. I took some profits off the table and put them elsewhere. $25 is really an important resistance level, and if we have another quarter of 3 screen growth, frankly, it doesn't matter how big Spiderman or other flicks are, we'll test the low 20's again because profits will be well below expectations.
Hell, for all the fellow longs here, I'm still hoping this is a $50 or $100 stock, but unless we have a zillion screens installed in Q2 or real guidance on Laser delivery in Q4 in multiple flagship theatres, I think this is dead money for 2 quarters. I don't even think another Wanda-type deal (huge) OR better than expected Q2/Q3 results can make this stock tick much. So, for the limited short-term upside potential, I've parked my money elsewhere.