Is it beyond everyone that between Revenues and Profits were flat between in 2013 vs. 2012? Is that worth $20M in compensation to a few top cheeses? We're not talking about Growth....we're talking about FLAT. And don't tell me 2012 was a better movie year. Statistically 2013 and 2012 were within 1% of each other in terms total North American Box Offices.
No Top End or Bottom End growth for a growth company?
Believe me, as I write this, I wonder why my largest holding in my portfolio is this company.
Laser, Home Theatres and Avatar (2016) seem like thin ice to me sometimes.
Ekave, taking out their money is no longer their right. The second they went public, the legal duty of that Board (and CEO) serving its shareholders FIRST, meaning above all else. That is actually the law. The point is, the second they went public was the moment when Gelfond legally should have started working for someone else. It's never happened. From GOld-plated pensions to dual CEO's (hello $50M!) It's not as if company insiders own 51% either. The Board is corrupt and incestuous. I don't deny that Gelfond has done wonders, but the Board is paying him as much as many CEO's of organizations 20-100 times larger in Market cap. The fact that Gelfond's annual compensation can be measured as a double-digit % of company profits is by any measure a friKgen farce.
Justice isn't for sale in China? Just checkin'. It's always about Gelfund....don't be confused.
I was reading through the annual SEC filings today. It actually says that "if anyone takes control of the company such that Gelfond doesn't directly control their compensation" then Directors are allowed to leave the company "with just cause" AND be entitled to a fat severance package. He and his cronies are dug in like ticks/chiggers and won't be moved by just a pedestrian-type takeout offer. This artificially increases the street PRICE of IMAX as a going concern, but does nothing to increase the VALUE of the company. I've never read this kind of wording in an SEC filing....amazing stuff.
I read the entire SEC filing cover to cover and there isn't a single sentence in the compensation section that doesn't give me the yips.
Shorts have their mandibles on this, man. Look over at Tesla. JPM raised the price target for Tesla and the friggin' stock price jumps 14%!!!!!!!! This is now a $30B venture that loses money. Bubble 2.0 is upon us....someone mentions the storage of energy using batteries (as if it's a new concept) and a company tacks on $5B in market cap. Seriously. Scary. Stuff.
I'm not as concerned with the selling as I am the rewarding!
Don't get me wrong, I cringe when I see Brian Bonnick selling every penny of his stock at
Here's the thing, if you're betting on this company right now, you're betting on 3 things:
1) James Cameron (and the rest of Hollywood) to keep pushing the envelope with Avatar-like hits that leverage IMAX's I.P. to create a truly unmatched theatre experience for the everyday moviegoer.
2) Laser Projection - Laser projection will be adopted by Institutional theatres first (maybe conventional theatres second) and the image quality and upgraded experience will bring people out to those theatres. Though this may be capital intensive, over the long-term this help reduce "DMR costs" and improve margins for the company and its institutional theatres.
3) Home/Private theatre installations leveraging the IMAX brand will take off in China and select Asian/Eurasian countries like wildfire. Note, this could potentially add 10's of millions of revenue per quarter. It's feasible that this leveraging of the IMAX brand could lead to the an evolution of the home theatre experience to something we've never seen before.....movie releases at day & date on a truly big screen in your mansion.
We're at a stage where we're now increasing installed screens at MAX 15-20% per year. There is no justification for this stock to continue climbing significantly WITHOUT the 3 factors mentioned above. That's how I see it.
Keep in mind that many of those backlog figures are laser systems, of which have no line of sight on delivery. Also keep in mind that Q4 was great on installs, but that Q1-Q3 was brutal (well below expectations).
So, the question becomes, what did management do this quarter that was so great? Hit half of the committments that they'd said they'd achive.......except a year ago? Does that do it for you? Nothing exceptional from management. The product and the brand is headed in the right direction, but I wouldn't say that's because of stellar performance in this last year.....or two years, actually.
2016 is going to be even bigger than 2015 if you include private/home theatres. Gelfund. I like that.
IMAX was up 10% in pre-market and got beaten down quite efficiently by market open.
I'm not sure if that was cuz of Gelfund spouting about limited size theatre deals in China, but to me it's that China (ON PAPER) is nearing it's point of saturation. Almost 400+ theatres in that country is nothing short of amazing.
The business model is intact and flourishing. If the Laser roll-out goes as planned, I wouldn't be surprised if IMAX starts doling out a dividend in 2015 too. If you look at it the balance sheet, IMAX is completely debt free. This is amazing. The business funds it's own growth. If growth slows, then the business will fund dividends. No problem. I don't think Laser's transition will be that smooth, but....we'll see.
It's been nicely quiet around here.....especially with earnings in 10 hours. I see analyst estimates have stayed at $0.33', but the analysts saw their estimates beat by 43% last year in q4 and we arguably had the 2nd best domestic and maybe best international numbers ever this past quarter, with a large number of screens capitalizing with digital retrofits.....so, some revenues will be knockout, but it remains to be see how much margins may have taken a hit. If imax had spare digital projectors sitting around, then the savings on DMR could've substantially offset that.....I don't think that'll have been the case though. I think margins will be great, but not as great as they will be going forward during a good quarter.
Anyways, good luck.....especially to those that bought some Calls with 2 days to expiry. I hope tomorrow is a banner day for longs.
The previous year we were replacing $100M IMAX Box Office movies with Johny Depp Vampire satires, so, 2013 in and of itself was a highly positive year. 2014 will be even better, and 2015 even more so.
I'd rather not name the organization, but it was a nuclear power & technology company......all agreements regarding trade secrets and IP were dishonoured by both the Indians and the Pakistanis in the 70s and the technology was used under the table by both nations to arm themselves with nukes. Ever wonder who provided the indo-Pakistani combatants with nukes? Answer: Canada. Robocop seem kind of silly now doesn't it. In the end, the lesson is the same. Keep your friends close, but your enemies closer. You may not think it, but Gelfond has done a tremendous job protecting the imax brand and business model in China. He's managed to establish real relationships in a corrupt country and none of his clients have s screwed him. Everyone who's done business in china (I have) know that this is absolutely remarkable. For this one thing alone, I give the pudgy one his biggest kudos. He's spent almost zero time in Russia and, as a result, we see a very different framework for success there.....no JVs. Imax in China has a real ground presence, several offices and some real influence.....quite the opposite of Russia. All I'm telling people to do is take this stupid article with a grain of salt......the business model in china is still a fortress. Can the government really screw over IMAX? Yes they could.....but ask yourself, why would they? To appease a copycat company stealing IP? Please....use logic in these forums and no one will listen more than me. Trust me. I consider everything on here, it's a great group, but there's a lot of noise. Golfond's going to announce stunning china boxoffice figures out of china in 20 days....this article will be a fart in the wind at that moment.
IMAX has had their way with China and essentially has 400 theatres there under 10-12 year agreements.....all locked up. SO, I ask you, what's the real risk? Read that stupid article and as So what? IMAX has gone into China and done a better job than virtually 95% of the brands that tried to step foot in the place.
THe company I used to work for got their I.P. pilfered by the Indians. Guess what, that was after they made $3Billion in the joint. If IMAX was to go into India today and the upside was signing and building 400 theatres and the downside was haviung some weak ompetition when trying to build theatre #401+, we'd all be euphoric. I'm just saying, put things into perspective. Realistically, new IMAX theatres signings in China are invariably going to be a very small part of the pie in China starting in 2015 and beyond anyways. Selling 400 theatres is great. But you know what's greater?, using your strong brand to sell 100,000 private home systems for $500K a pop. This will happen. The chinese market will lead the way...and the brand will be all that matters (it always is).
The Customer is always right....and in this case, the customers evidently want IMAX. Check out the latest Chinese B.O. numbers that blew Iron Man 3 outta the water. We're talking $5-10M a week in B.O. coming from a country that isn't the U.S. That's pretty awesome. Is the competition even relevant?
Also, make no mistake about a couple of things:
1) The Robocop screening on pilfered screens is a scandal. Do you think IMAX will let the Studio get away with that? Dont' forget IMAX screen time all around the world is EXTREMELY profitable. Do you think the pudgy one will let this happen again without a strong retort?
2) The richest man in china is interested in taking Chinese movies global. IMAX (an international company) has more of a global presence than any single movie theatre chain, AMC included. Don't tyou think he'll fight to ensure IMAX stays strong @ his hometurf?
What the root article failed to mention is that there are like 250 theatres in the backlog that are not going anywhere. Laser....80 theatres.....and IMAX the brand is stronger in China than it is anywhere. Starbucks doesn't lose business to Starbooks or other pretenders and IMAX won't lose business to useless copycats. If all else fails and you think I'm wrong, consider that the richest man in china has a big stake in imax and will crush any illegal competitors at the source. Worry not. This is no different than that garbage news story that came out in late q3 that stated 3d was dead and that Chinese demand for imax was waning......and then the stock flew up 20% after Chinese numbers came out and Gravity happened. All this is is an opportunity......if you're worried,worry about the greater markets, not this dumb article. One is potentially a legit concern, the other is noise.
We'll be up 10% in around the next 10 trading days....that's a statement I'm making right now.
As we go into what could possibly be the 2nd best set of earning this company has ever (ex. tax benefits), the stock price will accumulate going into the earning week.
Mark this: The rate for $30 FEB calls is $0.25.
You will regret not buying these in just over 10 trading days.
I will say, news of all executives getting handome salary increases led by the pudgy one himself is off-putting for all shareholders, especially potential new ones. Putting in terms like "resignation" not counting if Gelfond leaves or is forced out....I mean, come one, not attractive whatsoever, but it is what it is. Those guys are positioned to take a large chunk of corporate profits for themselves. And the way the board is configured and populated and the terms and conditions now in place to enrich executives, I now do not believe there is any chance of a friendly takeover. Hostile or bust is the only way it'll happen.
Late 2014 will be the turning point for this stock, but FEB 2014 will have been the initial catalyst.
That entire movie will be entirely CGI. There is zero reason to even care about input image quality because it will all be generate on a harddrive anyways. It's a bad movie for IMAX film usage.