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IMAX Corporation Message Board

gharabe 28 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 21, 2015 2:12 AM Member since: Sep 11, 2007
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  • gharabe gharabe Jul 21, 2015 2:12 AM Flag

    Google it. He's right. Also, it's clear that the ENTIRE Chinese unit is being IPOd, so, effectively, imax Americas 80% share in China is being floated. 20% was sold off, remember.

  • gharabe gharabe Jul 19, 2015 4:31 PM Flag

    Looking back on the details, I f IMaXis spinning off the entire china unit, which is actually what's being billed, then you're right. That $900 m ipo will. Turn to $1.5B knowing the chinese market, by, oh, September. It'll be interesting how the valuation of the Chinese portion will be determined.....cuz, based on the earnings in China, which are thought to be quite low, the price per screen might actually be in line with reality. The margins in China suck.....that's what we know.

  • gharabe gharabe Jul 19, 2015 4:14 PM Flag

    Ya, except only 20% of the Chinese business is on the books.....or that's what was sold anyways for $80 in April 2014. By that metric, the IPO value highly over values thest of the company.

  • gharabe gharabe Jul 17, 2015 5:33 PM Flag

    If EPS comes in at $0.28 vs. an expectation o f $0.39, expect a huge pull back.....or keep drinking the koolaid.

  • gharabe gharabe Jul 16, 2015 3:05 PM Flag

    Common, man. The Avatar days are FAR and AWAY different than today. Back then it was predominantly domestic screens and HIGH PSAs.
    While PSAs have dropped in N.A. IMAX has essentially installed a massive screen base in China and we have no idea what margins are there. The last three years - when Chinese expansion has been rampant, but revenues and profits have been stagnant, have taught us that margins there MUST be lower. That ain't rocket science.

    There are just too many unknowns to say this will beat or miss, which is exactly how Gelfond likes it.

    Is Laser adding to the bottom line or is it hurting? We don't even know this. If they rolled out 10 of these last quarter or none, we don't know. We know that it might get a few more bums in seats, but what does it cost? Is the payoff immediate, or is it years and years for IMAX? Good luck modeling this stuff without any relevant input...it's called gambling. All I'm saying is that this could be a beat or a miss and the odds of it being $0.38 are quite low, because it's all luck (lack of info) right now. A straddle will be you highest odds of success.

    I hope these analysts start asking some tough questions to these guys.
    Is Laser putting more rears in seats? What's the margin on a laser install?
    What are margins in that place called China?

    Nobody gets away with being so vague better than Gelffy.

  • gharabe gharabe Jul 16, 2015 11:35 AM Flag

    Again, as you've said, this estimate has little to do with BOX OFFICE and everything to do with installations, which management has provided absolutely no guidance on for years. If they under-delivered, you could have a 10cent miss. If they hit the ball out of the park (50 plus installs), maybe they beat estimates.
    Of all earnings, I'd see this as a wonderful one to straddle with some calls/puts. IMAX will either go up or down 10%. The odds of nailing $0.38 exactly are very very low in my opinion.

  • Reply to

    Chinese Stock Market Crashing Again

    by ritzkrakow5 Jul 8, 2015 11:19 PM
    gharabe gharabe Jul 9, 2015 2:02 AM Flag

    I see all dual traded shares, meaning In the US and China, are getting clobbered. I guess u simply don't understand why Imax is wrapped up in this OTHER than the phenomenon you're suggesting.... A lot of chinamen pre-purchasing the US shares and now selling off as cash calls occur on margin traders in China. If that's the case, and it's the only plausible reason I've heard on here, it is nothing short of remarkable. It is potentially also a massive opportunity for savvy investors to short stuff in US markets.

    What's amazing is that Imax was only IPOing a 20% stake of just their Chinese markets. Assuming China contributes 40% of ebitda, 20% of that is all of 8% of IMAXs market value. However, this stock is down a clean 20%. Wow.

  • Reply to

    Crouching Tiger Delayed

    by bslepicka Jul 8, 2015 10:50 AM
    gharabe gharabe Jul 9, 2015 1:40 AM Flag

    9 months and 3 signing in North America isn't enough revenge for you?

  • Reply to

    Why is earnings estimate only $.37 ?

    by j.spatta Jul 7, 2015 9:13 PM
    gharabe gharabe Jul 7, 2015 10:09 PM Flag

    Assuming this is a serious question, despite having interstellar movies with decent Gravity which made us all assume the dark knight (would) rise to Avenge shareholders in the past, IMAX, which purports to be a growth company has been range bound in profits between $0.60 and $0.70 per share for the last 3 full years. The proof that revenues convert to profits is slim. I would argue that I ax has never beat such results with lesser movies.........but feel free to rebut with evidence. All ears.

  • Reply to

    It's that time again

    by ritzkrakow5 Jul 1, 2015 1:25 PM
    gharabe gharabe Jul 7, 2015 12:27 PM Flag

    A few sessions ago IMAX was worth $10 more than it was today at one point.
    Fundamentals have not changed.
    The market's appetite for risk hasn't materially changed either.
    All those Greek IMAX threatres sitting empty right now will not have an impact on our bottom line, nor will the $10 drop in oil.

    What other momentum stock is down 15%+ since June?
    I believe this is much more than stop-gap selling and/or a connection to the Chinese stock markets. I have to beleive there's news coming to drive such a sharp sell-off.

    Maybe IMAX is delaying it's Chinese IPO?
    Not sure. Interesting activity from a statistical basis, that is FOR SURE.

  • Reply to

    It's that time again

    by ritzkrakow5 Jul 1, 2015 1:25 PM
    gharabe gharabe Jul 7, 2015 10:54 AM Flag

    It's as if the market just realized that, hey, before Carmike's 3 theatre deal, IMAX - a growth company - hadn't signed a new theatre in North America for, um, 9 monhts. I think they missed Ritz's post.

    What a beat-down today.
    What's amazing is that there have been some very high volume days supporting this recent run-up from $35/share. Now, it just bounced at $33.85.......after only a million shares? Seriously.

    Talk about manipulation.
    Is Gelfond dumping shares? What's going on???????

  • Talks about falling psa's......pretty good one, for once.

  • Reply to

    Three Monster Hits this Quarter

    by bwintersx Jun 22, 2015 9:39 AM
    gharabe gharabe Jun 23, 2015 12:51 PM Flag

    This is the only company I follow closely where management has to report two numbers.....one being real EPS and other being "EPS minues their dip into the money bin".

    It's embarassing, actually.....or it should be.
    Dips into the trough had a material impact on EPS for this company in the last 3 years. This can be categorically stated.

  • Reply to

    Three Monster Hits this Quarter

    by bwintersx Jun 22, 2015 9:39 AM
    gharabe gharabe Jun 22, 2015 10:34 PM Flag

    Earnings are the only thing that matter, for that, we shall see. Some pretty lofty targets this quarter.....$0.37 for q2, incl. management's take off the top.

  • Reply to

    $52 target at Dougherty & Co.

    by bwintersx Jun 2, 2015 11:05 AM
    gharabe gharabe Jun 2, 2015 3:10 PM Flag

    IMAX ain't losing market share in North America to Dolby...this is for certain.
    Maybe with Laser, but that's it.

    Clearly, the biggest threat to IMAX today is other PLFs taking a slice of our pie.

    Copycatting is the highest form of complement. Unfortunately, when the technical moat (for non-laser applications, i.e. 95% of theatres) has narrowed, the competition is able to get much closer.

    The only other significant moat that IMAX has is a commercial one (the IMAX secret sauce).
    It will be absolutely critical to maintain and grow this moat to maintain any significant product differentiation as all.

  • Reply to

    This is the last trading day in May

    by ritzkrakow5 May 29, 2015 10:09 AM
    gharabe gharabe May 30, 2015 1:37 AM Flag

    Ritz is pointing to fundamental drivers, of which we all have to agree are not driving stock prices in many tech stocks, incl Imax. I only know how to validate revenue and profit growth, as I said earlier.

  • Reply to

    This is the last trading day in May

    by ritzkrakow5 May 29, 2015 10:09 AM
    gharabe gharabe May 29, 2015 5:32 PM Flag

    In short, it was clear that (1) he had either not conferred with his customers (theatres) or (2) had not taken the feedback they'd given seriously at all.

    I don't ever recall a CEO announcing a new idea like that and then having all of their customers essentially band together and boycott the move. It was quite remarkably & amazing, acutally. I've seen ground level consumers revolt before, but NEVER have I seen several companies do so.

  • Reply to

    This is the last trading day in May

    by ritzkrakow5 May 29, 2015 10:09 AM
    gharabe gharabe May 29, 2015 11:59 AM Flag

    I think the NETFLIX deal really finally galvanized for US chains how little respect IMAX has for them as a valuable partner. And it's not even just US chains. AMC, man,.....these guys used to sign by the dozens. Now none? Even the Chinese are clearly #$%$. Gelfond really really messed up.
    Ritz, good job getting out. This has been over-valued for the last $10 run on fundamentals. Again, I can't say it's pure luck, but it's certainly not on fundamentals.

  • gharabe gharabe May 28, 2015 12:53 PM Flag

    Much of my investing mentality is still stuck on Buffett's mantra - That revenues and profits have to drive value, otherwise stays out. Clearly, with IMAX and several other great performers in the last few years, this revenues and profits are not necessary to drive stock growth. A new paradigm or just investor frothiness? Not sure, but since January, I've missed out on an easy 30% with IMAX. That's all I know for sure.

  • gharabe gharabe May 28, 2015 10:29 AM Flag

    Yep, if you've been here for 5 years, you deserve this. Enjoy.

IMAX
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