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IMAX Corporation Message Board

gharabe 28 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 28, 2015 5:38 PM Member since: Sep 11, 2007
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  • gharabe gharabe Aug 28, 2015 5:38 PM Flag

    The Dark Knight Rises, hello? August release. I doubt a record will be set this year, but we'll see.

  • gharabe gharabe Aug 25, 2015 1:07 PM Flag

    ....and what was their Profit Margin on those box offices numbers? Box office -- Imax Revenue (10%?) -- Imax Profit??? (1%?)

  • Reply to

    One fairly safe prediction

    by ritzkrakow5 Aug 24, 2015 10:08 AM
    gharabe gharabe Aug 25, 2015 6:02 AM Flag

    Although they pay themselves a large portion in CASH, which is redic, the larger portion of their compensation is in stock. So, YES, I think it would serve them quite well to dig into the cash coffers of the company, to help their share prices go up. It would serve everyone.

  • Reply to

    One fairly safe prediction

    by ritzkrakow5 Aug 24, 2015 10:08 AM
    gharabe gharabe Aug 24, 2015 10:59 PM Flag

    No source. Just a hunch. Cash on ImAX's balance sheet is useless. It provides zero return, whereas buyIng shares reduce the number of shares, increase EPS and inflates the share price of remaining outstanding shares. So, ya, it is better than nothing. Better than a dividend at less than $30 per share.....in my humble opinion.

  • Reply to

    One fairly safe prediction

    by ritzkrakow5 Aug 24, 2015 10:08 AM
    gharabe gharabe Aug 24, 2015 2:19 PM Flag

    As a debt-free company sitting on a pile of cash with NO dividend and no prospect of EVER being CASH FLOW negative, a share buybacks is what IMAX SHOULD(!) be doing at this share price. I don't expect Gelfond to put money where is large mouth is, but I do expect him to put the company's cash there.

  • Reply to

    One fairly safe prediction

    by ritzkrakow5 Aug 24, 2015 10:08 AM
    gharabe gharabe Aug 24, 2015 2:17 PM Flag

    I'm not sure I agree.

    I think IMAX started buying back shares today.
    For the first time.

    No joke.

    Gelfond will create and sell new shares later at a higher price, though.....as always.

  • Reply to

    50% more downside

    by meanrevers Aug 21, 2015 3:34 PM
    gharabe gharabe Aug 21, 2015 6:16 PM Flag

    Come one meanie, it's worth more than that. I always maintained this was a $30 stock based on fundabmentals.

  • Reply to

    We are on the 5 dollar a month plan

    by ritzkrakow5 Aug 20, 2015 2:39 PM
    gharabe gharabe Aug 21, 2015 6:15 PM Flag

    I have no idea. That's why I got out at $31/32, admittedly, before the run up. I couldn't justify it. And now nobody can justify the run down, so I'm satisfied I made the right decision and just got unlucky.

  • Reply to

    We are on the 5 dollar a month plan

    by ritzkrakow5 Aug 20, 2015 2:39 PM
    gharabe gharabe Aug 21, 2015 10:19 AM Flag

    This is a valuable company, it's just that a large chunk of that value goes to Gelfondizzle and his Stizzle Crew. One of the least transparent companies I've evern owned in terms of Profit and Loss potential.

    China wasn't very profitable, and now the purchasing power of the Chinaman is being decimated by their leaders. So, China will hurt for the IMAX. Either less seats in bums or less revenue and profit (assuming there was some profit).

    In the North America (the bread and butter for IMAX), growth has been abysmal since the NETFLIX announcement, and the PLF competition is hot on their heels with EQUAL on-screen quality (since we don't have a film differentiator anymore) AND LASER is clearly not quickly panning out as the next best thing since sliced Wonder. [Was it JACOSA that said the average moviegoer won't notice laser? THat's telling, because they are our customers.]

    What happened to IMAX home systems in Asia?
    WHat happened to expansion in India and South Amercia?
    We know what happened to Russia
    What happened to home/yacht theatres?
    Where are the revenues and profits there?

    I never thought this would be back in the $20's, but here we are,

  • Reply to

    IMAX Dragged down by China crash

    by kevin20012 Aug 18, 2015 1:02 PM
    gharabe gharabe Aug 20, 2015 12:20 PM Flag

    IMAX is now back down below where I sold.
    What this market movement is telling me is that either:

    (1) the stock only went up because of the Chinese IPO, which now is looking like a ill-timed, unlucky blunder - i.e. there was no shareholder value actually being generated with that IPO.

    (2) Investors think a premium product like IMAX will garner less inerest from the Chinese moviegoer because because of their devalued currency (higher price) OR the value revenue/profit that IMAX gets from China - even if it stays the same - (25% of revenue, bot not profit) will be devalued significantly due to FOREX reasons

    (3) Movie slate is everything and Q3 is looking, well, not like Q2, so the stock value must be punished. (And if that's the case, then you just invest on movie slates and make a killing with IMAX - predicting the market - easy peasy).

    I'm starting to think the impacts of 1 and 2 (China) are actually overblown and that IMAX share price is predominantly just based on movie slate. i.e. For Q4 it'll be up again.

    Is that all it takes to make money on IMAX?

    Thoguhts?

  • Reply to

    Monster Hunt...keeping imax venues occupied

    by iamforstocks Aug 10, 2015 4:02 PM
    gharabe gharabe Aug 10, 2015 4:20 PM Flag

    Gelfond when asked about China when the story is good:
    - "Almost a third of our business is in China."

    Gelfond when asked about China when the news is negative (i.e. Chinese IPO affecting stock price):
    - "China is less than a third of our business".....meaning, not that much.

    China is truly a blackbox. Great comment.

  • Reply to

    Big drop, low volume

    by frankezelle Aug 6, 2015 12:45 PM
    gharabe gharabe Aug 10, 2015 4:16 PM Flag

    Rtize presents the only credible data on this (granted HSX is only a single data point - but way more often correct than not), but then you refute the position with exactly zero data points.

    A tightrope walk between two towers might grab the interest of the Great Wallendas, but I'm with HSX and Ritz on this one.
    I don't think it'll be a dud in theatres, including IMAX.

    Never estimate the level of entertainment that the general public gets out of a bad movie, though. Did you all see Avengers 2? Wow. Just saw that. It was weak.

  • gharabe gharabe Jul 21, 2015 2:12 AM Flag

    Google it. He's right. Also, it's clear that the ENTIRE Chinese unit is being IPOd, so, effectively, imax Americas 80% share in China is being floated. 20% was sold off, remember.

  • gharabe gharabe Jul 19, 2015 4:31 PM Flag

    Looking back on the details, I f IMaXis spinning off the entire china unit, which is actually what's being billed, then you're right. That $900 m ipo will. Turn to $1.5B knowing the chinese market, by, oh, September. It'll be interesting how the valuation of the Chinese portion will be determined.....cuz, based on the earnings in China, which are thought to be quite low, the price per screen might actually be in line with reality. The margins in China suck.....that's what we know.

  • gharabe gharabe Jul 19, 2015 4:14 PM Flag

    Ya, except only 20% of the Chinese business is on the books.....or that's what was sold anyways for $80 in April 2014. By that metric, the IPO value highly over values thest of the company.

  • gharabe gharabe Jul 17, 2015 5:33 PM Flag

    If EPS comes in at $0.28 vs. an expectation o f $0.39, expect a huge pull back.....or keep drinking the koolaid.

  • gharabe gharabe Jul 16, 2015 3:05 PM Flag

    Common, man. The Avatar days are FAR and AWAY different than today. Back then it was predominantly domestic screens and HIGH PSAs.
    While PSAs have dropped in N.A. IMAX has essentially installed a massive screen base in China and we have no idea what margins are there. The last three years - when Chinese expansion has been rampant, but revenues and profits have been stagnant, have taught us that margins there MUST be lower. That ain't rocket science.

    There are just too many unknowns to say this will beat or miss, which is exactly how Gelfond likes it.

    Is Laser adding to the bottom line or is it hurting? We don't even know this. If they rolled out 10 of these last quarter or none, we don't know. We know that it might get a few more bums in seats, but what does it cost? Is the payoff immediate, or is it years and years for IMAX? Good luck modeling this stuff without any relevant input...it's called gambling. All I'm saying is that this could be a beat or a miss and the odds of it being $0.38 are quite low, because it's all luck (lack of info) right now. A straddle will be you highest odds of success.

    I hope these analysts start asking some tough questions to these guys.
    Is Laser putting more rears in seats? What's the margin on a laser install?
    What are margins in that place called China?

    Nobody gets away with being so vague better than Gelffy.

  • gharabe gharabe Jul 16, 2015 11:35 AM Flag

    Again, as you've said, this estimate has little to do with BOX OFFICE and everything to do with installations, which management has provided absolutely no guidance on for years. If they under-delivered, you could have a 10cent miss. If they hit the ball out of the park (50 plus installs), maybe they beat estimates.
    Of all earnings, I'd see this as a wonderful one to straddle with some calls/puts. IMAX will either go up or down 10%. The odds of nailing $0.38 exactly are very very low in my opinion.

  • Reply to

    Chinese Stock Market Crashing Again

    by ritzkrakow5 Jul 8, 2015 11:19 PM
    gharabe gharabe Jul 9, 2015 2:02 AM Flag

    I see all dual traded shares, meaning In the US and China, are getting clobbered. I guess u simply don't understand why Imax is wrapped up in this OTHER than the phenomenon you're suggesting.... A lot of chinamen pre-purchasing the US shares and now selling off as cash calls occur on margin traders in China. If that's the case, and it's the only plausible reason I've heard on here, it is nothing short of remarkable. It is potentially also a massive opportunity for savvy investors to short stuff in US markets.

    What's amazing is that Imax was only IPOing a 20% stake of just their Chinese markets. Assuming China contributes 40% of ebitda, 20% of that is all of 8% of IMAXs market value. However, this stock is down a clean 20%. Wow.

IMAX
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