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Helix Energy Solutions Group, Inc. Message Board

giant_seq 16 posts  |  Last Activity: Feb 28, 2015 3:38 AM Member since: Aug 13, 2007
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  • giant_seq giant_seq Feb 28, 2015 3:38 AM Flag

    Funny. All AMRN has to do is sell it for more than cost to manufacture it to be a very valuable deal to the company. This is a cost + royalty deal and a great way to drive up volume and drive down overall costs to manufacture. Beyond the new revenue - it could drive 20 -40% reduction in manufacturing costs. That is a huge positive impact on profit and cash flow going forward for every pill they sell in the US as well.

  • Look for press releases and deal announcements. Mobile World Congress starts on Monday. 90,000 people from key wireless vendors and Service providers converge on Barcelona for lots of eating and drinking with the occasional deal being made in between. Everybody announces press releases during the show. Never a good time to be the short telecom companies.

  • giant_seq by giant_seq Feb 26, 2015 10:03 AM Flag

    From the release...

    To date, there has been no prescription grade pharmaceutical omega-3 product in China, and thus there is a high unmet need for an efficacious and safe product to treat the millions of patients that have related lipid abnormalities

  • If you are a long term investor, here is a quote from the Conference call that I think was critical. Bravado? Maybe, maybe not.

    "We did $270 million of EBITDA in 2013 and our aspirations were to double the EBITDA in five years, or by 2018. There is nothing that we are seeing right now that would indicate that any part of that five-year growth goal is not achievable. If you go back and look at the details of what we said about the five-year growth plan, 2015 was always going to be a flat year to 2014."

  • Reply to


    by eves_advisor Feb 18, 2015 6:49 PM
    giant_seq giant_seq Feb 19, 2015 7:40 AM Flag

    Here is the transcript. Transcripts are done ay Seeking Alpha which no long appear in yahoo financial feeds. You need to go to their webpage to read them now.

  • Reply to

    Earnings Call - 2015+ Guidance

    by auntjemima1015 Feb 17, 2015 11:23 AM
    giant_seq giant_seq Feb 17, 2015 3:48 PM Flag

    I would expect ~150M of the CAPEX to get funded through cash generation of the business in a "bad" year scenario. That is basically taking Q4 - which was pretty bad - and extrapolating out for 4 Quarters. So they would burn through about 250M this year. I suspect they would not use all cash but some of their revolver. They d0 have 1.1B in liquidity.

  • Reply to

    Earnings Call - 2015+ Guidance

    by auntjemima1015 Feb 17, 2015 11:23 AM
    giant_seq giant_seq Feb 17, 2015 11:40 AM Flag

    Thanks for the update. Haven't listened to call replay yet. HLX has a very strong balance sheet so unlike last time their are no real liquidity fears here - just lower EPS fears. They have a lot of CAPEX planned for 2015 and the Q5000 gets delivered this year. I suspect they will try to cut back on the CAPEX, but may have limited options there. Between the Q4000 and the Q5000 they have the efficiency advantage over competition so they should have work, but at what price seems to be the issue. Everybody pushing back to the suppliers for major cost reductions. In a tough market, the financially stable and efficient will always carry the day.

  • Reply to

    125 Million EBITDA 2015

    by hytekvideo Feb 14, 2015 10:35 AM
    giant_seq giant_seq Feb 17, 2015 7:25 AM Flag

    Yep. you are correct. I saw the change to the ROIs but not the 12/31 footnotes to the PV-10.

  • Reply to

    125 Million EBITDA 2015

    by hytekvideo Feb 14, 2015 10:35 AM
    giant_seq giant_seq Feb 15, 2015 3:57 PM Flag

    There is a new-ish presentation on the website that is from Feb 2 and appears to use late-Jan pricing for all the modeling. Still a billion in PV-10 at current prices. All the ROIs have come down from the 20%-40% range into the teens. The one play that is breakeven at this point is the dry gas Utica. Of course, Late Jan was the lowest point for oil and gas prices now up 20% from those lows.

  • Reply to

    congrats ,Combes on a great quarter

    by sobequik Feb 6, 2015 6:39 AM
    giant_seq giant_seq Feb 6, 2015 7:19 AM Flag

    he said in 3 years, then in 2 years, now next year he is saying they will be FCF positive in total. That is the exact opposite of next year, next year

  • giant_seq by giant_seq Jan 7, 2015 8:43 AM Flag

    Oil and gas prices will only go down going forward. There is no possibility of oil rebounding for any reason. The market and experts have spoken, and despite oil being much higher 60 days ago, I mean a month ago, I mean a day ago, there is no hope for oil.

    Poor,poor oil. Doomed to a life of $20-$40 a barrel.

    I've never heard this refrain before in the last 30 years. This time it must be different.

  • Reply to

    Preparing to enter

    by giant_seq Jan 6, 2015 1:51 PM
    giant_seq giant_seq Jan 7, 2015 6:25 AM Flag

    It would need to be a takeover from a company with deep pockets paying mostly cash, because the stock "currency" of the buyers have probably gone down as much or more than Helix at this point. I am looking to buy more for sure at these prices, but this time around I'm trying not to buy too early. Then again I bought at 20,15, 10,5 and 3 last time around and it was a spectacular investment. Maybe I'll let Owen show me when it is time to buy.

  • giant_seq by giant_seq Jan 6, 2015 1:51 PM Flag

    Just watching and waiting here. I think the bottom for oil is near.

    Robotics probably more impacted than well intervention unless the drilling rigs flood the intervention market. Helix is a totally different company this time around than the one that dropped to $2 in 2008.

  • giant_seq by giant_seq Jan 5, 2015 3:08 PM Flag

    Took a shot at 2.17 earlier today. I think we are days away from the bottom in oil and very near the top in the dollar so I figured it was worth adding to my position at these prices. I have been trading shares off this bouncing low end now for a few weeks.

  • giant_seq by giant_seq Dec 12, 2014 11:01 AM Flag

    Opec blinks and all the oil traders immediately take a big dump in their pants. Oil must be going to 50 for the next decade. The oversusupply of oil in the world is somehow now etched in stone and going to be higher than demand long into the future. Really ? Let's see about that.

  • Reply to

    Bank of America oil report

    by gatr55 Dec 10, 2014 9:23 AM
    giant_seq giant_seq Dec 10, 2014 11:39 AM Flag

    Venezuala and Nigeria get thrown to the wolves, yet they maintain production ? Seems to me a lot of this gloom and doom is not reflecting the fact that so much oil is produced in marginally stable countries that will be made even more unstable by the lower prices. The analyses seem to assume status quo stability in places where banks and governments are going to blow up pretty quickly. Even US Shale bank loans are not looking very good anymore. How about Venezualan Bank loans ? GST has perpetual perferred. They have to pay interest, but there is no principal on the horizon.

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