Most analysts were shocked by the increase in potential Marcellis wells due to land trading (53% increase) that is not counted in current PV-10 or even probable reserves. One analyst said just this well increase added $2 to NAV alone. (Funny stock is down 12% as I type). Next area of major questioning was UTICA. Bascially another 1.5 TCF potential. And Utica Wells can be drilled from existing Marcellus pads - leveraging water system. Utica wells very expensive (deep) at 2X marcellus. Sounds similar to thier former East texas play.
Next intersting areas were two more areas in the hunton - woodford and something else which I forget. Woodford sounded more promising, with some drilling happening this year.
As for Hunton I I missed the fisrt part of call, but something about the Hunton having large fractures and screwing up the well completion so need to modify the completion methodology, but still only 25% of fluids back on 1st two wells so verdict still out. Of course, large fractures are actually a very good thing for shale oil wells, so there is that spin. First two wells were more expensive than planned as they tried to cope with issues. I supect these early result issues are the reason the stock is down today, more so than the earnings. Hunton potential still not very clear.
all very good points and true. Most Debt is perpetual so no due dates which is nice. In my opinion, GST will never be free cash flow positive because they will be sold before then. This is a cost of capital play for a large company. If you have cash or can get cash at 3% like the big boys you wipe out the large interest payments GST is paying and a GST buyout becomes immediately accretive immediately. Becasue of interest issue - forget earnings. EBITA/share for GST is 3.7 annualized based on Q4 and will only decrease significantly going forward. Exxon EBITA/share for 2013 was about 7.2, so at current price GST is 2X accretive to EXXON even without getting rid of GSTs management overhead and all the other cost savings (lower drilling costs) a large operator can leverage.
to put it in pesepctive, GST has such a low share count (60 million) that it only takes 600K to derive a penny in earnings. So missing by 3 cents is really missing by 1.8 million.That is basically just the cost of 1/3 of a single well.
Shaking the Tree looking for shares...up and down. As already posted by somebody, earnings are a crapshoot. News on a few specific Hunton wells are also a crapshoot beased on some of the huge hit and miss results of the past. One thing about their NG hedges - much of the hedges are collars so at least they will be getting the high end of the collars.
Currently there are 1 or 2 cards in each enodeB chassis. So the proliferation of enodeB chassis is going down, but the capacity (more frequencies, carrier aggregation etc) will continue for years to come as the providers buy capacity to fill the chassis. First you get geographic converage, then you follow with capacity. The capacity part is actually the profitable part, not the initial rollout.
VoLTE drives addtional LTE bandwidth, not additional overall bandwidth. More bandwidth moving from 3G to 4G requiring more LTE cards in the chassis.
Nobody is using the IMS today for 2G or 3G mobile calls.
Sure SDN is selling. Lets take everything we can and label it as SDN so it looks like we are a player. We call that marketing.
We shall see. No point in arguing with someone not in the industry.
I can easily argue with you. US market is not saturated at all for 4G. Not even close. Not for years to come. No major US provider has even released VoLTE yet. More than any other vendor, ALU dominates VoLTE in two ways - they obviously have the RAN side, where VoLTE drives more usage and bandwidth, but they also have a dominate position in the IMS side - where the 4G voice calls terminate. As for SDN, it may or may not transform the industry, but 2014-2015 are about trails and proof of concepts, real SDN wont be 2% of revenue in the space for at least 2 years. Everybody knows the slowest moving technology space by far is telecom.
The rest of the world is not buying ZTE - they are #$%$ and everybody knows it. ZTE ias basically low margin 3rd world stuff ALU doesn't even want. Huawei is a real global competitor, but their pricing isn't what it used to be, as they digest the demands of the big carriers. ALU is very competitive and brings an interesting, unique, pedigree to the market - ALU is perceived as "non-American" outside the US, but "American" inside the US. That is best of both worlds positioning as nobody wants to buy American outside US anymore due to NSA spying issues. Just like no American company will ever buy Huawei. Thus, I would worry much more about Cisco and Juniper than I would worry about ALU going forward. Products and competition are not really ALUs problem anymore they have great products now in the key spaces, competitive headwinds are dramatically reduced. ALUs problem of the last year or two and going forward to a lesser extent was lowering their European-style cost structure to become a very profitable company again. Cost structure is the downside of being a neutral European company. This is what the shift plan is trying to do, lower the cost structure, while maintaining their great product edge. The previous CEO tried to due it with some limited success but he didn't have the stomach for it.
The stock can certainly double this year. I have no idea if the earnings report will be a catalyst or even a negative at this point, but the part the guy posted about being valued on 1 of 3 of the plays is basically true. Maybe 2 of the 3 (Hunton and Utica) aren't proven enough to justify pricing all 3 plays in stock yet, but I'm betting that they will get priced in eventually.
They are still getting gas and liquids out of all their Marcellus wells.These are new wells. Why would you iterrupt production to redrill out the hole down to the lower Utica depth ? and why would you stop doing the liquid rich marcellus - it is still better than Utica ? Utica nice to have for the future but they have more than enough now to drill out. The 1 Utica well this year is probably just to prove to everyobody it is there. The company that buys Gastar at $15will be the one that eventually dris the Utica - there is no hurry.
Just look at the 3 year forecast from the presentation today. Production back up in 2015 and 2016 and all in cost continue to deline. Great buying opp.
The worlds biggest wireless trade show and convention. Next Mon and Tues is when all the big press releases go out - new products, new customers - to get attention and drive traffic into the booths. Expect some interesting ones from ALU. One should never be short a telecom stock the week of Mobile World Congress.
Funny, a 4 day 27% move to the upside, followed by a 5% move down. I'll sign up for that every week for the rest of the year please!.
Yes, and now they have a new major ship entering service every year for the next 3 or so years to help grow revenues. They are in a very solid position going forward for the next 3-5 years. I expect a buyout eventually, in the high 20s, possibly $30 to give Owen a good exit strategy. Now that the have two substantial sized divisions with nice backlogs, The two main divisions (Robotics and well ops) will make perfect turn-key divisions within a larger services/drilling company. Very Easy acquisition now and CEO probably wants to cash out on the top of this cycle and not get caught in another down cycle.
60 cent dividend cut, still paying quarterly.
"Newmont's updated gold price-linked dividend policy includes a quarterly payable dividend based on the average London P.M. Fix for the preceding quarter."
If you were in the industry you would realize Juniper is struggling mightily. Juniper is the most hurt by ALU resurgence. Why ? ALU is starting to dominate the IP thought leadership and product rollout at major service providers, and that is more painful for Juniper (the often second choice vendor becoming the non-choice vendor) than Cisco. Cisco is much better diversified.
Shelf registration posted. Since there is no press release I assume this is just for future use for now. It is not easy to find on EDGAR since GST just changed the company to a Delaware corp so you cant search edgar for "GST" which is what the GST website is apparently doing still. Search edgar for CIK = 0001431372 instead. IT is at the top of the list.
ALU can package the WDM stuff up with pricing for their core routers or the LTE gear and make the WDM piece appear to be less expensive. That is why the single product guys struggle at the big carriers. Cisco is the master of this, ALU has been getting better at it as this product portfolio has improved. ALU WDM produsct just needs to be competative and bundled, not the best.