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SPDR S&P Retail ETF Message Board

gilley0139 17 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 20, 2014 1:18 PM Member since: Oct 2, 2010
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  • For comparison, Wendy's glassdoor rating is 2.9.

    CMG's ratings were a lot higher last year. Are employees getting fed up with the propaganda and stress?

  • The store count implies two store closings during 1Q 2014. Did mgmt. talk about that on the call?

  • gilley0139 by gilley0139 Apr 17, 2014 11:10 PM Flag

    If you did, did you learn your lesson? If not, you will learn it again tomorrow.

  • Reply to

    Topic for CMG Conference Call

    by billy_berew Apr 15, 2014 10:46 PM
    gilley0139 gilley0139 Apr 15, 2014 11:49 PM Flag

    I didn't believe you until I verified it on IndexMundi website. I find that interesting. Food and beverage costs are 33% of revenue per 10k. Let's say meat cost in total is 20% of revenue, and pork cost is 3% of revenue. If pork cost rises 50%, that alone takes 1.5% out of the margin. But, you have to factor in the beef too. Let's say beef cost is 6% of revenue. If beef cost has risen 8%, that's another .5% out of the margin. Price increases on those two ingredients alone takes 2% out of the margin in the first half of 2014. But, then there is the avocado prices and small increase in chicken too...........

  • These pimply faced 20 somethings aren't giving me any comfort, with their imaginative dreams. It think it's time to sell. I'll stay in if a gray hair can explain why this is a good buy. I'm not seeing it. Stock is heading down fast.

  • gilley0139 gilley0139 Apr 4, 2014 11:49 PM Flag

    Business advertisers are leaving in droves. They've figured out there is not value there. Don't be the fool holding the bag on this one.

  • gilley0139 by gilley0139 Feb 18, 2014 12:48 AM Flag

    From 10K
    "In 2015, we will either adopt a qualifying plan under the Affordable Care Act for our full-time hourly employees, which will likely increase our healthcare expenses significantly, or we will be subject to employer penalties, which could also significantly increase our labor costs"

    The penalties are $2000 per person, phased in over time. When fully phased in, could that cost be 30,000 employees x $2000 = $60M per year? That would take a huge bite out of margin. If they pass it along to the customer, it reduces traffic.

    In my mind, the more concerning scenario is that restaurants will have to increase menu prices simply to cover the labor cost increase. Will that take profits out of the restaurant sector overall? People could eat at home more.

  • Reply to

    EPS is declining

    by billy_berew Feb 15, 2014 12:41 PM
    gilley0139 gilley0139 Feb 16, 2014 8:58 PM Flag

    Interesting. But how can EPS growth be declining when traffic per store has increased 60% since 2006? Seems odd. You'd think EPS growth would accelerate as they leveraging corporate costs on higher volume per store - but it's actually declining? Option expense and executive comp is the only thing I can think of.

    More importantly, I have one question. If EPS is gradually declining in the face of such traffic increases, what happens when they do hit that "wall" you mention? Does EPS growth fall through the floor or possibly turn negative? We all know they can only squeeze so much traffic growth out of any particular location.

    Plus, how heavily will Shophouse and Pizza weigh on EPS growth? Shophouse is losing money, so is that why they are not really expanding it? What would be the impact on EPS if they suddenly added another 20 Shophouse locations, given the low put-through of that concept.

  • gilley0139 gilley0139 Feb 16, 2014 1:10 PM Flag

    The options that just vested had a strike price of $103. Those would be what he exercised. If he waited a year, he could exercise options with much higher strike prices, thereby reducing his tax bill by many millions, but he must have been in a big hurry to sell. Why the big hurry to sell?

  • Didn't take him long. He sold them the day after they vested.

    That leaves some nice baggage for shareholders. The 75,000 shares will have to be bought back by the company to avoid dilution. Those $75,000 shares will cost $41 million dollars at $555 per share. Let's see how much the other officers sell in coming days. Same thing happened before the last stock price crash.

  • Reply to

    Dear NOKIA: Please Show Leadership Skills

    by urban_phantom Feb 14, 2014 12:20 PM
    gilley0139 gilley0139 Feb 15, 2014 12:08 PM Flag

    Dear Urban_phantom,

    Grow some balls. Nokia cannot guarantee that the stock price will rise, and they cannot guarantee the deal with go through. They will not respond to every little dip in the stock price. If you panic over a 15% dip in your stock investments, which are inherently risky by nature, you should seek therapy from a qualified professional.

  • gilley0139 by gilley0139 Feb 14, 2014 10:33 PM Flag

    That's a bad omen. Too much damage to the chart, coupled with a decline in revenue growth. More pain ahead. Impossible to recover at this point without more significant damage.

  • How much of today's record margin do you think is in Amazon? Margin calls should increase the selling this week. Clear path is down.

  • gilley0139 gilley0139 Feb 4, 2014 12:44 AM Flag

    Incoherent effort....if you want your cash back... think it through. Think before you move (and post to others).

  • gilley0139 by gilley0139 Jan 31, 2014 1:12 AM Flag

    One thing I'm beginning to observe is there is an interesting relationship between store comp growth and menu price increases. Chart the menu price increase each quarter along with the store comp. You'll see that a visible pattern emerges. Whenever CMG increases menu prices, the store comps decline markedly 1-3 months after the price increase. This seems to make sense because it takes customers some time to change behavior after the price increase. The menu price increases have such a detrimental impact on traffic that overall store comp growth declines quite noticeably.

    When CMG avoids price increases, the opposite occurs. After 1-3 quarters, the traffic increases rapidly and overall comp growth increases despite lack of price increase.

    This tells you is that traffic is overly sensitive to price increases or decreases. That explains why comp growth came in at 9% this last quarter. They haven't raised prices in over six quarters, and traffic has responded. This also explains why CMG is in no hurry to increase prices. They realize that price increases will reduce traffic so drastically that overall comp growth will decline rapidly within 1-3 quarters. With this pattern, it's best to be very conservative with menu price increases, or avoid them altogether, assuming you can handle the additional traffic that results.

    Problem is, if costs increase enough, you have to raise prices, so I'm afraid CMG will be headed back to 1-3% comp growth a few quarters after the menu price increase.

  • I just got that feeling. Never seen CMG so weak. This could gap down 20% any day now.

  • gilley0139 gilley0139 Jan 27, 2014 10:40 PM Flag

    Yes, it will be a straight line down.

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