I've been dabbling in the markets for years and have never figured out why market capitalization seems so arbitrary. PLX seems to be a great company with a potentially profitable product in its pipeline, but does it really justify a $400 million market cap? How about a company like IBIO, with a market cap in the toilet and market action that looks a lot like somebody is intentionally driving its value down? IBIO has multiple potential products and incredible technology, so why doesn't the market value it in the same range as PLX? Maybe I should be keeping my thoughts to myself and just quietly pile up a position in IBIO before the market discovers it!
An "approvable letter" can also come before May 15th, and you could see a share price below $5 in minutes. Why put yourself through that carrying too large a position? Don't risk more than you can afford to lose and sleep well at night.
One of three things will happen after May 15th:
1. Nothing, or
2. FDA will approve Provenge and you will be proven correct in your market wisdom, or
3. FDA will see through all the hype and recognize that there is no scientific basis in claiming that Provenge is some kind of wonder drug, and they will issue an "approvable letter" seeking more trials and results. In this event, $5 will look expensive.
In any case, any investor or trader who risks more than they can afford to lose, in whichever one of the above represents their worst-case scenario, is a fool who deserves to be separated from her money.
I agree. If the media wouldn't pay so much attention to sub-human scum like that, there would be far fewer copycat crimes in the future.
SNCI may be worth looking at. It is breaking out of its multi-day trading range today for no obvious reason that I can see -- so maybe somebody smarter than me knows something.
SNCI might be worth taking a close look at. It's chart looks good, but I don't see any obvious reason for the current rally (fundamentals have always eluded me, anyway).
I have also found some useful articles about trading here:
Where do you see crude prices going from here? The market action the past few days, along with strength in natural gas, looks like it could be a bottom to me.
Of course, pure libertarianism would never work -- there are too many a@$-holes in the world. Which is the same reason why pure communism would never work and why the demopublican party is totally ineffective . . .
The time after the market closes just begs to be filled with mindless drivel . . .
Not a liberal democrat. Libertarian with a strong populist streak (thus the taxation part of what should be an unfettered free market).
I'm calling an a#$-hole an a#$-hole no matter where they exist on the financial pecking order. I also advocate legalizing everything, taxing the bejesus out of it, and letting people choose for themselves whether to commit slow suicide or not.
I agree. Money has no conscience. Invest where you can get the best returns and then use the profits for something good. If the tobacco merchants and arms dealers can beat the S&P500 I'm all for it. If their products kill off a few million people, well, hell, there are too many of us around anyway.
I know a guy named Sid who hangs out down by the high school who would be glad to trade some of your fiat money for high quality weed -- I guess if I had my way and they legalized the stuff he would have to find a real job -- maybe on RAI's board.
The hypocrisy in our society is dumbfounding. We subsidize and encourage tobacco consumption, aiding and abetting the murder of hundreds of thousands of Americans every year, but we aren't smart enough to tap into the vast tax revenue potential of a much more useful natural product: hemp, weed, cannabis sativa, . . .
Maybe it's because the weed executives wouldn't have the marketing advantage that the tobacco executives have: an accutely addictive substance legally present in their product (nicotine) which is harder to kick than heroin.
Markets do strange things and almost never when and why I expect them to. Very good article at http://www.tradingprofitsmadesimple.com/tradegamble.html .
AAPL may very well be the GTLTGE, but I have been burned by taking large positions on too many "sure things." Now I never risk more than about 3% of my capital on any one investment. I can sleep better that way.
The key is to not put all your eggs in one basket. It is better to make a thousand small trades than to risk it all on one big trade. http://www.tradingprofitsmadesimple.com/tradegamble.html .
There has been a great crying and gnashing of teeth from both directions on this board since the gap up last week. The lesson to be learned is that nobody KNOWS what the market will do. The market will do what the market will do and all we can do is react quickly and limit risk.
I appreciate your advice. I'm sure I will be short before next week is over (of course, if RIMM gaps down to 80 at the open on Monday, I will be kicking myself all week for being so conservative today!) Have a great weekend, everybody.