"still grumpy though I covered and I am now long."
Since you are admitting your past mistake, and hopefully you have learned from that experience you are, therefore, officially welcomed into the long holders club. So i will no longer be grumpy with you as long as you don't short again.
Personally, i never short biotech stocks that have a decent pipeline. There are 2 dangers in shorting these --
you wake up one morning and may find out there has been an offer to buy the company or the phase 3 results of one the pipelines showed excellent efficacy. In these cases I could lose my shirt covering.
Anyway, good luck with your long position.
" I think a lot of people might panic if FDA delivers bad news for Relistor, and think 118/Naloxegol/Movantik is in the same boat"
I guess you are implying that the FDA would announce its final decision on Relistor BEFORE announcing it about Naloxegol.
Is it known the dates that FDA would release its decision on each one of the drugs the advisory committee voted on in june 10-11? Have these dates been announced by the FDA?
Is a joke. Rated VRTX a sell when it was trading in high 50's, low 60's. Now that it is in the upper 90's it rates it a hold. A very good rating system if you love losing money!
Geoff Porges should be fired by Sanford B. He slammed VRTX drugs with no viable or reliable reason and by ignoring the phase 2 data. It seems to me if in fact some of SB clients and institutions/hedge funds actually listened to this bozo they must have lost tons of money and must be mad as hell.
The report I posted was a family member of the patient, not the patient himself (I believe it was a father). Any way how are they going to trace the father of a patient and then also kick him out of the tral if his father was the one who reported his observation of his son?
I like to thank you, verity, papa, and qdelfan for engaging in the discussion of the science involved. It always helps a non-science person like me to get this type of information to bring a balance to the negative analysis of the analysts.
No sense of arguing with an idiot like you. You are a puse stupid person and discussing thing with a stupid idiot is just waste of one's time.
"it you think it is going to 35 why don't you sell here and save yourself 30 bucks."
Dude, I did not say it will.
I said IF it does, then the management should be fired. You do not need to preach to me that biotechs are risky. I know that. However, that does not mean that managements can keep drawing high salaries and lots of options without accountability to their shareholders who are paying them all of these benefits!
VRTX has over 1,800 employees. I estimate out of those there are 1000 scientists. Yet we have no other drugs even in phase 1 as far as I can see. Jeff Leiden has chosen this path -- putting all of the eggs in CF basket. If the results are not very good the PPs may go down to maybe $35. If that happens he and his team should resign and the Board should put the company's skeleton on the auction block maybe to get $40 a share if we are lucky.
I have a substantial number of shares in this company and plan to stick with it for the hopefully good results. But if good result are not produced I believe this management has to pay with their jobs. If the results are good this management should be highly rewarded by the board.
"but it's naive to believe results aren't leaked in this and every other trial..."
So are you saying that info has leaked out and the results are not good and Porges recommendations were based on those leaked information? if so are you shorting the stock or at least buying some puts? Just curious.
Regarding the early indication being less than promising, VRTX management explained that in detail as being a temporary initial issue which was reversed later in the trial.
As to the analyst's statement about having spoken to CF doctors, the analyst did not claim he had talked to the doctors involved in the trial but implied that he had talked to non-trial CF doctors whose opinion was based on their own evaluation of the mechanism of action of the CF drugs used in the trial and not based on their actual involvement in the drug trials.
Scientists who are directly or indirectly involved in drug trials are prohibited from discussing any details of the drugs until they are authorized to do so by the company.
The last time the analysis was totally out of whack due to the incompetent analysis by the 3rd party. You can always release dome actual data that at least give some sense of direction.
In case you have not heard, there is such as thing in the drug trial business -- release of "INTERIM DATA."
It seems to me that VRTX management has had the data for a while and has been analyzing it since. Even though its analysis may not be totally complete, in light of the damaging report this analyst has made quoting CF doctors and the resulting damage it caused to PPS, the management should release whatever data they have so far or at least give some indication of the results.
By not saying anything at all, investors are assuming that the results must be bad and the management may be taking its time trying to put the best face to a bad data.