"Forget HR for a second. "
Under HR, in addition to several failed costly drug trials due to his faulty designs, here is what has happened to the stock during his time at NKTR:
NKTR DOWN 48.16%
IBB UP 253.15%
NBI UP 253+%
BTK UP 338.28%
And you are saying forget about HR. Give me a break. He has been at it for 9 years and has been milking the company with his undeserved high salary and options -- isn't 9 years enough of this?
The results of phase 3 661 and phase 2 787 for influenza should become available in may 2016. I wonder when they will make an announcement of the results.
Also phase 1 results for 970 should be available this September.
It allows Leiden to PRETEND he is working hard to boost pps. So far his actions at the helm have not had very good results for pps because investors for the most part consider VRTX as a one drug pony with several competing drugs in the works.
In my opinion the BOD should fire Leiden and find someone who is capable of beefing the pipeline.
VRTX has a bloated number of employees which must include many scientists. My question is what are all of these scientists doing? How about having some of these scientists work on other possible drugs and if they pass phase I then find big pharma to partner with VRTX whereby they can underwrite the cost of phase 2 and 3 and if successful VRTX could get royalties on the sales. I think I have the answer to that as to why it will not happen. It is because VRTX leadership has BIG egos and consider turning their inventions to others for development beneath them!
"Persistence: Of the patients who have started on treatment, approximately 15% discontinued treatment within the first three months of initiation."
I expected much higher discontinuation than 15%. so I consider the above to be very positive even though the revenue and earnings came below analysts estimates.
Very good coverage of the pipeline. That is certainly a positive as opposed to previous reports.
Even though the expected revenue guidance was a little below previous guidance, I think it is still a very respectable sum which will hopefully makes us profitable for 2016.
VRTX has over 1800 employees and its only drug treats CF . I don not detect the management having much enthusiasm about any of its other few drugs in the pipe line. Out of over 1800 employees, how may of them are scientists? How many of them work with and assist scientist in their research for new drugs? Why there are not any progress in new areas? What are the scientists who are not working on CF doing?? Surfing the internet all day? I would like someone help me understand what is going on. Apparently investors do not like what they see and are damping the stock!
FDA says it warned the company repeatedly about the need for having a placebo group. The company denies it. I suspect new lawsuits will be initiated because the company did not reveal such info to shareholders. I guess that must also have been the reason there was bad blood between the FDA and the former company CEO, Chris Garabedian, because he probably was saying the company was not going to follow FDA's recommendation to include the placebo group.
The question is in a jury trial whom the jury would believe. If I were on the jury I would probably believe government agents rather company CEO's. I simply would not see why government employees lie as opposed to a company executive.
As has been mentioned before, in addition to Leiden getting all of those free shares, and other companies developing Cf drugs to compete with VRTX and the lack of other products being pushed through the pipeline, the other factor that is affecting pps is the Hillary factor. Threats of drug pricing, even though I doubt it it will happen with the republicans in control of both houses, nevertheless, has spooked investors.
Here is the statistics about biotechs for the past 6 months:
VRTX down 38%
NBI down 28%
BTK down 28%
IBB down 28%
I believe VRTX has gotten hit harder because of the above mentioned reasons unique to it.
Vertex sinks after CF drug penetration seen falling short of expectations The shares of Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) are falling after research firm Stifel predicted that the penetration of the company's Orkambi drug would fall short of expectations. Orkambi is used to treat cystic fibrosis. WHAT'S NEW: After surveying 47 U.S. cystic fibrosis doctors, Stifel analyst Adam Walsh predicted that Orkambi's share of the U.S. market would reach 70% in a year, down from his initial projection of 90%. The analyst now predicts that peak Orkambi sales will come in at $3.3B, down from his previous projection of $5B. Moreover, Walsh lowered his outlook for the drug's EU gross price, citing pricing for the drug in Germany and the U.K. The analyst cut his price target on Vertex to $108 from $140, but he kept a Buy rating on the shares, citing what he sees as the company's "high growth potential, advancing pipeline and attractive valuation." WHAT'S NOTABLE: On March 23, the U.K.'s National Institute for Health and Care Excellence, or NICE, issued draft guidance which did not recommend Orkambi. NICE said that the drug was much more expensive than existing treatments and only produced slightly better results. However, in a note to investors that day, Piper Jaffray analyst Edward Tenthoff wrote that NICE's decision will not impact Vertex's revenue in 2016, adding that he expects talks between Vertex and NICE on the issue to continue. PRICE ACTION: In morning trading, Vertex fell 2.3% to $77.68. 13 May VRTX Vertex 03/23/16 PIPR 03/23/16 JEFF 02/05/16 LEER 02/05/16 PIPR TODAY'S FREE FLY STORIES WATT 12:46 Energous in talks to license wireless technology to at least six companies » Reuters is reporting that… 17 May 12:45 Breaking General news story » Cleveland Fed President… 12:45 Breaking General news story » Week of 4/1 Baker-Hughes… 12:40 U.S. capacity utilization rates were revised sharply lower » U.S. capacity utilization… GDX 12:39 On The Fly: ETF fund flow highlights » Flows we
On Yahoo' s Stock Twist this was posted about VRTX:
T Rowe Price added 6.5mln sh in Feb & increased stake now to 10.52% 25mln sh
I hope I am wrong about this but I just do not believe VRTX is a good takeover candidate. Its present market cap is $20+B. A 1/3 premium makes a buyout cost around $27B which makes it somewhat a large investment for even some of the pharma biggies. Add to that Leiden's concentration on CF at the expense of slowing other products through research as well as competition from other drug companies with their CF drugs nipping at VRTX's heels-- I simply am not very optimistic about a buyout. My hope is that VRTX's additional CF drugs will cover more patients and revenue would increase soon.
As I said I hope I am wrong because unfortunately a good portion of my investment is tied in this stock.
Thanks for the info and suggestion. I will take a look. Nevertheless, I believe the management should discuss these development in detail in their quarterly reports as well as in their conference calls and presentations. Many of us do not have a clue what is going on unless the management informs us. Again thanks for your response.
Movantik sales $110 M. Royalty rate of 20%+ in US, 18%+ in ex-US
Adynovate Royalty rate is mid single digit (5%?)on up to $1.2 B sales and low teens (11 to 12 %?) on over $1.2B
Cipro sales $750 M. Royalty rate 10%
Amikacin Inhale sales $700 M. Royalty rate 30% in US, 22% ex-US
A rough estimate of the above royalties:
Movantik-- $110 M x 20% = $22 M
Adynovate-- $1.2B x 5% = $60 M
Cipro-- $750 M x 10% = $75 M
Amikacin-- $700 M x 30% = $210 M
The above 4 royalties alone if I am correct total annual royalties of $367 M which means, as HR said in the conference call, before too long we will become cash flow positive.
I think I am going to load up more shares by stealing them from shorts.
I stand corrected if my figures are wrong.
Yes, the analysts estimate was a loss of $.23. revenue was 58.9M vs analysts estimate of 43.78M.