MY calculations are about recurring annual royalty streams. All milestone payments are on top of athe royalty streams. i did not include royalty streams because they are not not recurring every year.
Movantik sales $110 M. Royalty rate of 20%+ in US, 18%+ in ex-US
Adynovate Royalty rate is mid single digit (5%?)on up to $1.2 B sales and low teens (11 to 12 %?) on over $1.2B
Cipro sales $750 M. Royalty rate 10%
Amikacin Inhale sales $700 M. Royalty rate 30% in US, 22% ex-US
A rough estimate of the above royalties:
Movantik-- $110 M x 20% = $22 M
Adynovate-- $1.2B x 5% = $60 M
Cipro-- $750 M x 10% = $75 M
Amikacin-- $700 M x 30% = $210 M
The above 4 royalties alone if I am correct total annual royalties of $367 M which means, as HR said in the conference call, before too long we will become cash flow positive.
I think I am going to load up more shares by stealing them from shorts.
I stand corrected if my figures are wrong.
NKTR market cap today is $1.9 B. It also has loss carry forward of $1.9 B+ in its balance sheet which would offset earnings of a big pharma company's taxes. On top of that a buyer will get all the royalty and the pipeline.
Even if the purchase price is at a 50% premium to today's pps, the buyer will be stealing a great asset for peanuts. With NKTR pps having been so low for the past several years, for the life of me, I do not understand why this company has not been taken over. Am I missing something?
"BRIEF-Vertex Pharmaceuticals files for potential mixed shelf
— 5:48 PM ET 05/03/2016
May 3 (Reuters) - Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc
* Files for potential mixed shelf; size not disclosed - SEC filing Source text for Eikon: Further company coverage: (Bengaluru Newsroom: +1-646-223-8780)"
Apparently investors do not think that is a positive development.
Yes, the analysts estimate was a loss of $.23. revenue was 58.9M vs analysts estimate of 43.78M.
Enzon has a negative retained earnings of $79.3 M on its balance sheet. So if Enzon is sold, can the buyer use this negative earning to reduce its taxes or this negative figure on the balance sheet would be worthless to a buyer?
FDA says it warned the company repeatedly about the need for having a placebo group. The company denies it. I suspect new lawsuits will be initiated because the company did not reveal such info to shareholders. I guess that must also have been the reason there was bad blood between the FDA and the former company CEO, Chris Garabedian, because he probably was saying the company was not going to follow FDA's recommendation to include the placebo group.
The question is in a jury trial whom the jury would believe. If I were on the jury I would probably believe government agents rather company CEO's. I simply would not see why government employees lie as opposed to a company executive.
"Persistence: Of the patients who have started on treatment, approximately 15% discontinued treatment within the first three months of initiation."
I expected much higher discontinuation than 15%. so I consider the above to be very positive even though the revenue and earnings came below analysts estimates.
Very good coverage of the pipeline. That is certainly a positive as opposed to previous reports.
Even though the expected revenue guidance was a little below previous guidance, I think it is still a very respectable sum which will hopefully makes us profitable for 2016.
for revenue is 439.36M. Last quarter we had revenue of 417.94M
Their earnings estimate is $.29. Last quarter we had earnings of I believe $-.30
Let's hope today's figures will at least meet analysts estimates.
Ofjames, one of thumb ups above was mine. yo funny!
" he's been with his secretary since Sirna"
I do not like HR and believe he should be fired by the BOD for several poor drug trial plans as well as for robbing the shareholders through his stock options that are not well deserved at all BUT NOT FOR WHATEVER RELATIONS HE HAD WITH HIS SECRETARIES. If a person fall in love with his secretary and marries her I do not see any thing wrong with that, SO GET OVER HR MARRYING HIS SECRETARY!!
Now about your above statement, I was just curious about "Since Sirna." Please enlighten me.
Any bounces in biotechs will be temporary as long as Hillary, the baitch, has a chance of becoming president. Her statements about drug price controls many months ago( which BTW is what she was proposing when Bill appointed her on a committee to make recommendation way back), have contibuted to biotechs being slammed by investors. We just have to work to defeat that baitch. Unfortunately, the Republican party does not seem to be giving us a good choice for president either.
These are bad times but we have to hold our biotechs because Hillary, if elected, will not be able to accomplish any of her stupid agendas because both houses will not approve her stupid ideas. As a lifelong democrat I plan to vote for Republican senators and reps to make sure Hillary will not get away with her stupid agenda.
"you obviously didn't read or understand the sarcasm in my statement."
Oh thanks for enlightening us as to what you meant. I did not have a clue, oh great one!
Please continue to enlighten us. hehehehe.
So you are saying brain transplant success rates are high also. Man you are very smart. So please enlighten us with some more of your wisdom.
"Best and much cheaper is a double lung transplant."
Yes, like there are lots of lungs are waiting in line to be transplanted!!! Get real pal.