Thanks for the post. It explains the hit we got on Friday.
Usually The Street articles appear on yahoo. But apparently that street article did not. I wonder why. I wonder if the article was only available to subscribers.
I also wonder how Piper Jeffray analyst got the NICE decision information. I assume they constantly monitor NICE's decisions on daily basis.
Lets not exited too much. Tests in test tubes and mouse often do not work in real humans. Show me the money -- give me results in real humans!
It is interesting that VRTX has not announced this. Neither is a word about it at VRTX web site.
Of course what else could we expect from Leiden? He only announces news about CF and the hell with any thing else VRTX scientists develop!
Below is part of the news about Editas.
Editas, if successful, would be developing a method of fixing the actual gene responsible for the disease rather than a daily pill which counteracts that gene, like Vertex offers.
The results of phase 3 661 and phase 2 787 for influenza should become available in may 2016. I wonder when they will make an announcement of the results.
Also phase 1 results for 970 should be available this September.
Error: Instead of " i did not include royalty streams because..." I meant to say "I did not include milestone payments because...."
MY calculations are about recurring annual royalty streams. All milestone payments are on top of athe royalty streams. i did not include royalty streams because they are not not recurring every year.
Movantik sales $110 M. Royalty rate of 20%+ in US, 18%+ in ex-US
Adynovate Royalty rate is mid single digit (5%?)on up to $1.2 B sales and low teens (11 to 12 %?) on over $1.2B
Cipro sales $750 M. Royalty rate 10%
Amikacin Inhale sales $700 M. Royalty rate 30% in US, 22% ex-US
A rough estimate of the above royalties:
Movantik-- $110 M x 20% = $22 M
Adynovate-- $1.2B x 5% = $60 M
Cipro-- $750 M x 10% = $75 M
Amikacin-- $700 M x 30% = $210 M
The above 4 royalties alone if I am correct total annual royalties of $367 M which means, as HR said in the conference call, before too long we will become cash flow positive.
I think I am going to load up more shares by stealing them from shorts.
I stand corrected if my figures are wrong.
NKTR market cap today is $1.9 B. It also has loss carry forward of $1.9 B+ in its balance sheet which would offset earnings of a big pharma company's taxes. On top of that a buyer will get all the royalty and the pipeline.
Even if the purchase price is at a 50% premium to today's pps, the buyer will be stealing a great asset for peanuts. With NKTR pps having been so low for the past several years, for the life of me, I do not understand why this company has not been taken over. Am I missing something?