Great post GSA, I was hoping you might weigh in on the ISRG Q3 CC - thanks for posting. Full disclosure I am long ISRG since 2006 and NVDQ since 2012, so I look forward to your posts on either company - and in this case both.
So in regard to your observation on Guthart's comments regarding imaging, are you thinking that the tide is turning toward ISRG being "pushed" by their customers (surgeons) hard enough to go back and negotiate with NVDQ to upgrade the Firefly technology platform to include the latest-and-greatest improvements and features that have already been or will be released on the SPY & Pinpoint platforms?
It has been somewhat of a mystery to me why ISRG did not take the opportunity to license upgraded Firefly technology (or possibly even acquire NVDQ outright) when they were rolling out Xi and had to resubmit Firefly for Xi to the FDA anyway. One possible explanation is that they did explore it, but NVDQ's terms were deemed "too expensive". Any thoughts?
Yes, certainly hard to understand these price movements - valuation seems skewed. I think we're left back in conspiracy theory mode - some very big player(s) executing on a strategy as you/Endo/Buzzy have recently discussed.
Also agree that things do seem to be primed for an upside surprise - I hereby second your call for a big-time squeeze following the 10/28 CC!
Looks like we hit your 17.0 million... so a "good" quarter (+13% sequential, +40% yoy) but not "excellent".
Now we need to get to 18.7 million in Q4 just to hit the lowered guidance number for the year (62.5 million). That seems pretty feasible if the last two quarterly increases are any indicator, it would be a measly +10% sequential growth.
If we could repeat this quarter's +13% sequential growth that would be 19.2 million for Q4 and 63.0 million for the year - not too shabby.
To get all the way to the original guidance of 65 million for the year, it would now require 21.2 million for Q4 (+25% sequential increase) - pretty far-fetched, though I'd love nothing better.