The spot price must rise much further than $35 for companies to break even or make good profits. $35 is still a depressed price and this precisely why their shares keep on sliding and URA goes down. Having said that I am optimistic that in the medium run (12-18 months) uranium spot price will increase and URA will skyrocket.
Speculation regarding dilution is not over. This uncertainty is strong enough to keep short positions open and the NBG under pressure BUT nowhere near 10 cents or lower! Does anybody on this board knows what goodwill means?? These dream wont come true...Also 1 USD looks expensive now unless they sell their Turkish asset at a very good price soon.
The answer is no for the foreseeable future. Maybe next few years if and when recovery takes place in Greece and if there is no renewed political turmoil upsetting the process. Having said even thought the bank's NAV is -ve, its cap should still be worth some money over and above ZERO because a) Its one of the biggest players in the region b) potential profits in case of recovery will be HUGE again. Meanwhile the biggest danger for 2013-14 is that NBG will bow under the market pressure and that of the Troika and be fully nationalized. If this does not happen (or is not somehow imposed upon on old shareholders), the price should remain between (40 or 42 cents) low - (88 or 91 cents) high. Will we see...April is critical month for investors renewed interest....
'...Please forgive my ignorance, but aren't multi-year charts like the one you are referring to based on the closing prices at months end?...'
A daily chart for NG futures going back 20 years exist.
Got it! Thanks pal. It is indeed an important trend line. I am not sure if it will eventually hold, but it will cerainly act as resistance the first time arround if NG ever test it. Below that anything is possible....but today the risk is to the upside.
"..But that's under that 20 year trendline..."
Kem, which chart are you referring to? For example, HH spot has no 20 year trend line passing through 2.50$, resistance is below 2$.
How long? More than a year long it doesnt make financial sence. NG is lower than 5$ for more than 3 years... Do you mean CFOs & CEOs took the risk to lock the price in 2009 for more than 3 years...?
One can hold this for a few weeks or max 2 months (2 rollovers) if the rollover cost is low like it is today... However I must say bottom fishing is very difficult for NG-UNG.
The build up must be well above 90 to get a bullish reversal. Why would the market sell NG so hard today (other then warm weather forecasts)? I think insiders know +90 wont be achieved on Thursday. This POS is the hardest ETF to even trade (let alone hold) in WS. I mean even FAZ is easier than this! UNG is only going down without even being volatile....UNG sprikes are rare and small even though NG is oversold below 3.50$. I cant guess where a LOCAL bottom is. Could (should) be today or it could be 25%-35% lower!!!
90 is the real estimate. Normaly it shouldnt be difficult to beat that number to the upside, BUT the market today is clearly pricing a lower reduction in storage....
This MB has changed a lot. I remember back in the old days, messages were scarce during weekends (even though GLD was up), but now this MB is on fire. Its much more interesting. There is plenty of money to be made both on the long and on the short side with so many new customers... lol!
"It looks as if the final cost may be no more than $3.50."
So they can sell that in the EU, Japan, China, South Korea. US may proove to be to cheap like during July- early September 2009 (average HH price 3.10$).
You forget to add their profit above 3.50$....
Very interesting. Now bloomberg reports LNG imports, but in August when more than 30 LNG ships where motionless outside Fujairah port and LNG imports were reduced dratically bloomberg failed to report....
Thereafter NG jumped from below 2$ to sbove 4$ (Sept-Oct 2009). Thank God I was on a business trip in UAE in August and went long for a few days in Sept, while 5000, wolf and others were busy bashing NG on this MB!
During the summer of 2009 NG was just about everywhere else more expensive than in the US. Thats why LNG imports in August were reduced. Some special interests (not all) are working hard to increase NG business concentration i.e. create an oligopoly. That is why we have a US NG price war now that the economy is also weak (which is very convenient). Meanwhile big players who started this civil price war are hedged and have the WS gang on their side shorting a dead market (for now)....
Under these circumstances I can't see why the NG export ban should be lifted anytime soon. Besides its "good" for the American consumer to have subsidised NG prices and the US to have huge balance of payments deficits and dependance on foreign oil...!!
While the WS gang and Washington are busy with this internal price war, keeping the export ban alive and manipulating the NG futures curve, the Russians are signing new deals both West (EU) and East (China) securing HUGE NG markets for themselves and making money NOW at much higher NG prices. "Well done" WS gang, Washington and CFTC! When this war will be over and the WS gang ready to go long NG WILL GO BACK ABOVE 10$ AND STAY THERE.
P.S. On top of all the above UNG has been a complete failure to track the NG price due to the contago and CFTC intervention. Maybe UNL will do a better job (though I am not confident about its performance)
NG will be a winner long term. We can easily see 8$ or even 10$ after 1-2 years. There is speculation whether a clause for horizontal drealing will be included in the clean water act.
Furthermore NG at around 3$-4$ not only will be a disaster for US companies (which slowly move out their hedged positions) but also LNG shippents are more profitable abroad. If US NG remains for a long time below 3$-4$ some day we may even see a waver on the US NG export ban....
HOWEVER, given all this CFTC intervention/manipulation lately favouring NG contango, UNG may easily fail to follow NG movements as it did during the last 2 months. I understand why you feel betrayed.
Average HHub price for Sept-Oct so far 3,52$ and rising, way of 1,83$ (!) which is just one day of September....Furthermore in Sept-Oct we broke above all 50,100 & 200 SMAs. You can check your beloved log charts too.
CFTC prevented UNG from buying more contracts at the front end thus keeping contango intact (or the price of the front months low). That’s also one of the reasons UNG NAV has been positive since August.
My biggest loss with UNG has been time rather than money (almost breaking even after 9 trades). However, it now seems I am also loosing time replying to your post.
apg1864/gld1970 are the same
Five, why dont you drop your NG forecasts (as expected you were wrong during the summer calling for a crash in NG price in Sept-Oct) and stick to your UNG forecasts....
Thanks to the CFTC intervention/manipulation in August contago has been alive and kicking and saved you and other shorts on this board (who think they are sooo clever).
But if that's the case, it's no different from someone sending you a letter saying "Please come to 123 Main St. today at 6 PM.....once you arrive, we will rob you. Thank you
And then you go.
It may be wrong for them to have done it, but it was your studity that got you in robbed in the first place."
The CFTC didnt warn anybody before they intervened, during this summer, essentially manipulating the NG market to the benefit of shorts and the WS gang, so cut the crap about stupid investors etc!
Today it seems that even the Russians (!!) have less bureaucracy than us...