In response to the kind comments to my earlier post, I would add the following:
1. I agree that traders, like myself, add to volatility and help exacerbate moves;
2. The short interest in SRPT is too high and that is a plus for share prices. However, some event has to trigger panic by the shorts and the timing of such an event is unknowable and their occurrence is rare:
3. I agree that SRPT is currently undervalued, but mispricing can go on for what seems forever';
4. I agree that pps moving news will come out over the next 6 months, I just do not expect it in the next month or so: and
5. I have been day trading for a living full time for almost 17 years and I have somehow just missed many moves ( see ITMN, I sold in early April of this year, thought I was a great trader for a few days/weeks and then....LOL). In essence, it would not kill me to be wrong about SRPT's timing.
Again, good luck to all
I took gains by selling my position in SRPT in the Pre-M and early in the Regular Session.This was potentially a mistake, but I did so for the following reasons:
1. I do not understand the hoopla over potential Ebola Drugs. I have been shorting TKMR since it went parabolic in the Pre-M a few days ago. I fear that it will continue to drag SRPT down with it. I do not see how anyone, in the current circumstances makes money from an Ebola Drug. Without an outbreak in the US or Europe, I do not think current valuation of these companies are warranted.;
2. I do not expect news from SRPT on the DMD Front until maybe sometime next month or later; and
3. I think the overall market is vulnerable to a steep correction between now and the end of September.
I hope to re-establish a position in SRPT at somewhat lower levels. I am a trader and, of course, I run the risk of missing out on a big move, but until, what to me, is irrational exuberance over Ebola passes, I think the risk/reward is against a trading SRPT Position.
As an aside, I would also note that most Wall Street trading firms requires higher margin on SRPT (75%) on positions held overnight (a negative to my holding).
Unless you are a crazy trader like me, I would not recommend selling SRPT in the hope of buying back at a lower price. Anyone with a real long-term outlook should own SRPT. Hopefully, I will be back in and posting on this board before SRPT explodes to the upside. That definitely will occur, with or without my participating.
Good luck to all
You seem to be right, putting him on Ignore does clean up the board rather nicely. However, I usually hate to put posters on ignore, one never knows when they finally post something worth reading.
There are posters on this board who incessantly attack the CEO of SRPT, Chris Garabedian. If one were only to read their diatribes, one would think SRPT is about to file bankruptcy and, at the same time, they claim to be longs? Now, I acknowledge that some of them seem to have been here forever, but it is hard to understand their problem. Could eteplirsen been approved earlier if someone else was leading the company? That is obviously unknowable by anyone on this board.
Garabedian took over as President & CEO in January, 2011. At the time, the market cap of AVII was approximately 234 million. Today, approximately 3.5 years later, the market cap is roughly 890 million. That is almost a quadrupling in a 3.5 year period! Maybe, he should have done better, but few CEO's have a better track record than that. If eteplirsen fails to achieve approval from the FDA, probably a change in leadership will be in order, but some posters are already attacking him even when they acknowledge approval will probably be attained. Hard to follow their reasoning.
PS Feel free to attack me for defending him.
You are being a little silly. There was 100 shares sold "in the red". Ask is now above the close. Maybe SRPT will go down today or maybe it will go up, but clearly the Pre-M gives us no real information about whether it will go up or down.
I think it will happen at some point, but I doubt if today is the day. Maybe after the upcoming CC? I would love to be wrong about today............
I think it is almost certain that the FDA accepts the NDA. However, I found from past experience it is very hard to handicap how the expert panel will vote, let alone what the FDA will do. That being said, I think it is a better than 50-50 that the panel would recommend approval. Of course, that is a number of months from now and many other stock moving things will occur before that meeting. I do strongly think the odds favor higher pps over the coming months. For example, I expect higher prints coming out of the CC on Thursday.
There are a number of problems with your hysterical post:
1. Twitter is not ablaze with this information.
2. Even if it was, it would be irrelevant.
3. The only interesting point is that someone thinks that approval will not be granted until completion of a confirmatory phase 3. If that were to occur, SRPT would probably go down to 12 or even into single digits.
However, this is just idle noise from someone who knows nothing more than any other short about the prospects for accelerated approval.
4. What we do know is that a NDA will be filed before the end of the year. The FDA has clearly signaled that it believes such a filing is now appropriate. SRPT PPS will rise before and after the acceptance of this filing by the FDA. Don't take my word for that. listen to any of the analysts who have commented on the current outlook.
5. What we don't know is what will happen once the FDA (and its advisory panel) decide/recommend upon the NDA.
One can argue the issue both ways and no one really knows the outcome. SRPT skyrockets if marketing approval is granted and it tanks if a Complete Response Letter is issued.
One thing that is clear is that SRPT is not going down before that is resolved and it will most likely go into the 30's before/after the NDA is submitted. It might make sense to short into that move up, but not here and not now. I might guess from your hysterical post that you have already shorted at around these levels or lower.
SRPT does have some weird intra-day trading. I could not believe when it started to drop earlier today and I sillily bought trading shares at 21.43, thinking it would not go negative, then when it did added at 21.07 and at 20.81 and finally at 20.68. I almost liquidated the position, but luckily held and for some reason, SRPT has turned around. It is now again up about .40 cents. It is rare for it to be substantially positive, then really tank and come back to go positive again (normally the second move holds). It strikes me, that SRPT should have reacted better to the news. With about 1/2 hour to go, I hope we build on this momentum and close much higher. I will sell my trading shares if strength does not continue and just hold my investment ones.
I am glad I got lucky trading SRPT and maybe someone has a logical explanation for today's action.
Why would you limit your comments to this board. I actually think this board is better than the average Yahoo Board................
So, we have Oppenheimer initiating SRPT with an Outperform rating and $45.00 price target and we have the announcement that the Chairman has been forced out and replaced and the Board expressed full confidence in the current CEO filing the NDA by the end of the year. Tomorrow should be an interesting trading session.
I have read some posts from what obviously are somewhat delusional shorts. In almost 17 years of daytrading and many more years of investing, I cannot recall a similar letter from the FDA specifically referring to a future filing by a named company. I assume it has happened, but clearly this is more than the FDA covering their rear. That probably played into it, but mentioning SRPT, by name, is not business as usual by the FDA and is obviously of real significance and a game changer. Also I think the following is obviously going to occur:
1. SRPT will file later this year a NDA for accelerated approval.
2. This filing will be accepted by the FDA.
3. Deutsche Bank thinks that SRPT will rally once the NDA is accepted. I think SRPT trends higher between now and then as the news is priced in. Once it occurs, we might have a rally and then selling into it (buying the rumor and selling the news).
4. Once that occurs, we will be in a very volatile period waiting upon further FDA Actions.
It is also possible that other good news will come out at some point, for example, a partnership.
We could hear more analyst comments over the next few days and they will be stock pps moving. More than ever I think the bottom is now in and we trend higher. Shorts need their own game changer to stop that trend. Who knows when or if that occurs?
I think we will be higher over the next few days ,especially if some more analyst give favorable comments on the FDA response. Not so sure what happens between now and the close. I am still holding large investment positions in SRPT, but took gains on trading positions bought over the past few days.
Interesting comment, given that they are the most skeptical about SRPT