wijasc, it is near the top of the page scrolling as real time news headline. You cannot view it unless you are a member.
And your point is well taken. If, as Jarhead surmised, the short positions covered yesterday and a good portion of them turned long, the drop in price will be very short lived.
You feel that way because there are 2 more weeks until earnings. I've never seen only 1 round of share price takedown. There is doubt circulating regarding forward (Q4) estimates. At some point prior to earnings I expect this to drop .75-1.00 from here. Biggest question is hold or sell and buy back. Then the conference call cames into play.
Most expect earnings to at least hit the high side. The only prognostication out there is Q4 will be sequentially flat. That has been painted as a bad thing and a reason for a re-itterate on a sell recomendation. In actuality that would be 22% YoY growth from Q4 2013. But like the Google re-investment (insignificant as it was) it is about the perceptions painted regarding the stock.
Personally, holding again (sold my shares to offset the majority of my short and long term gains for 2014). A drop into the 6's will have me adding (although more prudent would be to wait until after the call, so you give up a few cents). Estimates have yet again gone up in the last 7 days for 2015. While I still think a forward p/e of 20 for the growth and dividend is low, that would bring the share price to 11.40 at least during 2015. HIMX needs to continue to show consistent growth because it is not being given full credit for the growth... Yet.
2016 is still my time frame.
Does not matter at this point. They spurred the drive for the move to market. They are more than likely ahead of the curve on the applications side. A small investment to play it both hardware and application side. be it Google or other device, the market is forming for the product.
Nice.... Congrats. Similar position, self employed consultant. Wife retired at 49. 5 years ago. I run 40% of our retirement and emergency money. She's good with it..
I was busy freeing up capital when the market opened. Missed as well. Dollars freed up. Still waiting to pull the trigger. For this AM my thought was anything under $7.20 was a buy.
Jar makes a great point on not only covering but going long. Forward earnings definately support the stock at these levels... 3 consecutive quarters of demonstrated growth would really shore up the pe valuation given to HIMX. That time is coming in 2 weeks.
Hmmmm... Would not doubt that, but still have never seen the stock only take 1 hit. When there is more to be had, the market is pretty efficient at taking it. Appreciate the take.
Thanks Jar. There are still 2 weeks prior to earnings for games to be played. Freed up powder, but will be patient in pulling the trigger. My thoughts, some additional shorting here on the bounce back. Perfect set-up to pull the rug out again.
So to clarify, A stock with greater than 20% annual growth paying 65-70% of their earnings in dividends should be valued at less than a 10 forward P/e (and the forward estimate has little to no new growth products factored in). Well then, the entire market is 50% overvalued here....
Please clarify your definition of fairly valued.
Thanks for the full text Pagdyl. Saved me from having to find it. Whomever wrote that has a pretty good understanding of the HIMX business model. First time I've seen in pring HIMX refused exclusivity to Google. Does not make it fact, but makes sense in the long run.
The forward p/e of 14.5 is low especially given the dividend. But investors will look at the March to July time frame, and the reaction to this event and be cautious about entering. It is time for earnings follow through to take over and continue the demonstrated growth.
This was not an unexpected event.
Took an Initial position a couple days ago. watching and waiting to see if I add more. Looking at holding for a 12 month return at this point. I expect better than 50%.
Correct. And this is already overdone. Forward P/e is at ~12.5 (with a $7.00 price). And that is for an estimate that has none of the growth products with any meaningful contributuion. Div will be between .30 and .32 next year..