Hasch. Good thoughts.... Currently I am in the lube and fuel distribution business. A few comments:
+ Recent 13% increase in oil prices troubling for a refinery.......even if hedged to oil prices (hedging just delays the inevitable margin squeeze if prices keep rising.......or rise and hold). This is a bit surprising as China, India and even Japan has reported lower than desireable economic growth....and these recent increases in oil futures could be short covering
Refineries, distribution, and retail make their best GP during times of rising and falling prices... Pump prices are slow to drop with decreases... Look at the December-January gas prices compared to todays. Oil hit a six year low recently, My pump prices were .20-.30 higher than they were then. Pump prices jump immediately when there are increases....
Q2 earnings, although only 1 data point, do confirm this. No telling performance if hedging is taking place and they judge it wrong.
+ Dividend of over 14% unsustainable as payout ratio is over 200% (or profits)
Agreed, the Yahoo reported dividend is not Accurate. They took the last dividend and multiplied by 4. The actual dividend policy is variable based on current quarter performance. last 4 quarters total divy = 2.65. Cash flow supports the dividend, but not at last quarters .92.
CVRR also had the fire at Coffeyville Summer of 2014 That skewed the earnings results.
I think the price of bounty went up... Lots of coffee drank at the wrong time. Just before the laugh. It's in short supply now!!!
Looks promising. Thanks for bring it up.
Funny thing is, what I just wrote, sounds like an automated reply to a spam message...
Need to do a bit more dd and we'll see. Heres's one for you. CVRR Worth a look. As you posted elsewhere regarding this stock... I'm on the cvrr mb a bit. If there is anything to say, we can there.
Thanks goingupnow1. Those are on top of the 5530 open interest 7's for January 2016. That sounds good to me... Hasch, the MM now have a new target... I also like the direction the January 2017 7's are going
geo, appreciate your take... to me, deja vu with fall of 2013. Upgrades from no where given current (short term) outlook. Hit pieces in media non-existant. Expectation growing of sustainable growth within 6-9 months, AR/VR product release, new mfg facility, physical presence in china, microsoft biometrics... The price always proceeds realization of the expectation.
Hasch Jar etc...
+ Sept 9 Brean Global Capital conference in New York
Brean likes HIMX but is it because they believe the M&A side. What does the e-mail do regarding theri short term outlook.
+ Sept 9 & 10 Credit Suisse Asian conference in Taipei, Taiwan
Honest upgrade. They have played their analysis straight up on HIMX. No waffling. The meeting Q&A and the e-mail add support to this. While the timing of the upgrade seemed early, there have been many recent upgrades that begged the question why now... With no hit pieces... Hopefully CS can add more color to the upgrade after the conference.
+ Sept 18 Options Expiration with nearly 12,000 contracts (1.2 million shares) of $7 Calls expiring (the largerst by far position with the second largest position being only 35% of this with 4,214 $8 Calls). After 9/18, there are very few options expiring until November.
This is the tricky one. For the most part, I believe the price will run up through the 7's. The 7's will be closed (big fish made their money) and then dropped to catch those that did not close out. Same scenario Jar mentions.
Flip side is based on how HIMX acted through the fall of 2013. The stock has entered the same territory it was in during that time frame. Expectations of revenue and profit growth within 6 months. There have been far more apparent confirmations this time. Plant expansion, entry into china (physical), AR/VR release dates early 2016. During that time frame, option positions you thought would have expired worthless wound up in the money several times. The Dec and Jan 10's support this although there are the pesky Jan 7's (which could be a play to accumulate)
Too much noise in the short term. I went long with March 9's which I can sell into a pop that will happen between now and then or hold to get the shares... Also Jan 2017 7's
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