You forgot C: The price of the stake in the subsidiary has no correlation to the price of the shares trading on the exchange. It is not HIMX stock.... Himx is profitable, with growing EPS. Even a sequentially flat Q4 would be a 22% YoY earnings growth for Q4.
Other that that, yes no change in near term sales.... Being invested for 8 years here, you already know that.
That was nicely said. The jury is out. But with the premium for quality graphics hitting stride, 4K TV as well, odds are pretty good they are somewhere. but definately a spec play.
There is no hard data to make a prediction on that yet. The quantity sold of the end device can be estimated, the HIMX sales$$$ and GP are the unknowns. Who knows who's module it is. Ovti could have been working on a package size reduction for their offering as well.
We wait and see. If this is validated, it could potentially be a nice short term offset to the share price if Google does not take their additional stake in HDI. Even better is it points to the R&D side of HIMX making inroads to the consumer market.
cdlozem , That's is the one I've been waiting for. Not necessarily the apple part, rather news of the new optics going into end products... Timing is great if this turns out factual....
To break down Jay's bottom line.... From the article
"As such, we believe that HIMX could guide for Q4-14 revenues to be sequentially flat to down modestly, while street consensus estimates are projecting ~5% growth."
Sequentially flat.- 3rd qtr 2104 estimate is for $.11/share. If he believes "sequentially flat" that would mean ~.11/sh for q4 as well. This would bring the 2014 earnings in at .45, q1 .09 q2 .14 q3 .11 (estimate) Q4 .11 -per jay (consensus .12). Total year earnings would be .45 (consensus currently is .47). YOY earnings would be up .09 or 25% over 2013 (.36).
Keep in mind that is without the expected growth products being at market yet. 25% YOY earnings growth is not to shabby. IF the best is really yet to come..
If you look only at Q4 for YOY growth. 2013 was .09/sh. 2014 is estimated to be .11 (per Jay). Q4 would demonstrate 22% YoY growth. Again, not a bad growth rate.
Interesting to note, none of his comments are hard comments. All soft inferences without attaching an earnings amount to them.
"Chardan gave two reasons. First, after a strong third-quarter, smartphone shipment, especially of 4G phones, is likely to weaken:"
Interesting comment. so Jay thinks it will be a strong Q3? How strong Jay. Put a # on it.
"Taiwan based smartphone display maker Himax Technologies "
Interesting categorization by Jay. Is HIMX really simply a smartphone display maker?
Simply , can you expand on that? One of HIMX strengths is the diversity of the product line rather than a smaller outfit that has one main product. Another is it's customer base.
Actually, What Jay did worked. Might be against how many feel regarding the security, but the market moved with Jay's agenda.
Lessons to be filed in the back of the mind regarding how an analyst with an apparent axe to grind basically succeeded in achieving his agenda.
LOL, no one will like the above comment, but it has played out.
And we do not know about Q4.
Look at the timing of the statements. On the cusp of the Google deadline. Perfect opportunity to bring it up and create question marks regarding the stock. If his target is again $5, he has dropped it from the 5.50 he had it at.
If you sold any at 14 you did better than me. I had been holding all those shares until this tax sale. Sold them early enough in the year I should be able to make some opportune buys in the latter part of Nov-Dec time frame.
Hear you on the shut the internet off.
Long time no see. Just sold my loss shares. Offset ~50k gains of the gains I had for the year. I look at that as a $20K savings... from the tax bill.
Need to add. If the news is no additional investment, share price should drop. If for no other reason than the April to July share price drop is fresh in peoples minds.
Again, nice to have earnings coming soon to hopefully reinforce that growth is being demonstrated without the great and powerful Google glass being at market.
People expect news on the horizon and soon. I don't think HIMX moves much (from the ~8.50 mark it seems to be stuck in) until then. Thankfully earnings is hot on the tail of this event.
If anything that should solidify nthe share price... strange...