Check my math. Yahoo which aint the most reliable or up to date source, says 106 Million shares outstanding. Price hovering as I type at about $5.75 per share. So Mr. Market is valuing a company with brand new guiandance a day old, of $450 MM EBITDA at slightly more than 1 time? Insane. I hope it does drop to $4 that be less than 1 times EBITDA. ( something like .94 times ). Looney tunes insane.
If the approved stock buy back has been partially or fully executed already, the shares outstanding would be even less. If it gets executed in the next couple months, it will be less.
No one thinks this company is headed for BK and oil is not going to zero, the Russians and the Venezuelans, Nigerians and Persians are already screaming for a production cut. It will happen sooner or later, and most analysts say the markets come back into balance on rising demand starting in July or August.
WFA recently did a sum of the parts valuation on a number of MLPs. Their valuation on what are the various business pieces of NGL worth came out at $22. This is not a dividend/distribution and growth valuation but more like a break up value. At $6.50 that is 70.5% discount to that valuation. And the distribution has been reiterated so you will get back 40% of that within the year. Nothing is without risk in this volatile market but the sheer magnitude of the upside here surely must entice your to want to ride at least a small position. Shorts have to pay that distribution so its hard to believe it going much lower. Your mileage may vary, but that is the way I see it.