WFA recently did a sum of the parts valuation on a number of MLPs. Their valuation on what are the various business pieces of NGL worth came out at $22. This is not a dividend/distribution and growth valuation but more like a break up value. At $6.50 that is 70.5% discount to that valuation. And the distribution has been reiterated so you will get back 40% of that within the year. Nothing is without risk in this volatile market but the sheer magnitude of the upside here surely must entice your to want to ride at least a small position. Shorts have to pay that distribution so its hard to believe it going much lower. Your mileage may vary, but that is the way I see it.
What about the natural decline in wells other than US shale? I am sure Russian and Saudi wells have a natural decline just like US wells. I dont know the decline rates, just certain they have them. Anyone know if Russia and OPEC are able to drill enough to keep up with existing decline rates?