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Compass Diversified Holdings Message Board

gmax97 11 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 8, 2014 3:38 PM Member since: Nov 13, 1998
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  • Reply to

    I own 2,000,000 shares of MEMP.

    by kousin_lou Dec 8, 2014 6:31 AM
    gmax97 gmax97 Dec 8, 2014 3:38 PM Flag

    I wouldn't trade your partnership unit for 2 million partnership units!!! No fringe benefits!

  • Reply to

    dividend

    by monder00 Dec 2, 2014 7:31 AM
    gmax97 gmax97 Dec 2, 2014 12:36 PM Flag

    LOL

  • Reply to

    Yea Or Nay

    by anal.lyst Nov 26, 2014 10:01 AM
    gmax97 gmax97 Dec 2, 2014 12:34 PM Flag

    Another big run up today, and I am already in the black currently How that realized loss doing for ya?

  • Reply to

    Yea Or Nay

    by anal.lyst Nov 26, 2014 10:01 AM
    gmax97 gmax97 Dec 1, 2014 1:43 PM Flag

    Big run back today. Calling a bottom is always beyond difficult. I am down 5.4% on that buy at the present. As I said, I prefer to buy when everyone is selling. $22/$30 is a 27% haircut which you realized. I have realized nothing as I have no loss until I sell, but rather a distribution stream. And my point all along was SDLR is going to pay their distribution without fail for 10 + qtrs, and I like my odds of being in at a profit by then as opposed to buying at $30 and riding that wave down.

    No would I have wished I had waited a tad and bought with a 16 handle? Of course. Its human nature.

  • Reply to

    Bought Price

    by jim_hairball Nov 28, 2014 10:22 AM
    gmax97 gmax97 Nov 28, 2014 12:27 PM Flag

    Yeah but they had buys on them too at much higher prices than today. The low decline rates and especially the long spanned hedging program at MEMP is the story in a low oil price environment. Its the model of the results at various prices that is the story, not their buy or hold ( nothing is ever a sell for some reason ) recommendation.

  • Reply to

    Bought Price

    by jim_hairball Nov 28, 2014 10:22 AM
    gmax97 gmax97 Nov 28, 2014 11:17 AM Flag

    WF Advisors modeled it at $70 oil and .70 NGL and said they could maintain their current distribution for 5 years in a report done 10 days ago. I think that means the 5 years of dividends are $11 and you are paying +/- another $3 for the reserves after 2018. WF put the value in the range of $18 to $21 or 28% to 50% upside while getting the current coupon of almost 16%.

    Since the 70s oil has gone up and down a bit, but the long term trend has always been higher. I see no substitute (short of shivering inside a dark cave) on the horizon either. YMMV

  • Reply to

    Yea Or Nay

    by anal.lyst Nov 26, 2014 10:01 AM
    gmax97 gmax97 Nov 26, 2014 2:33 PM Flag

    Sure make your case, but for the record you are the one that brought up my solvency, which has everything to do with short term (liquidity) and longterm ( net worth ). Neither is an issue for me, so your comment was specious or was it introspective and projecting?

    SDLP is not going to have a distribution cut for at least three years, if even then. If things are rough at the parent, they may drop down more rigs at better prices to allow the distribution to remain the same or even grow and rig pricing may improve by then.

    I tend to buy when everyone else is selling especially in panics, and I always buy stuff with a dividend. If I can convince myself that the dividend/distribution is secure, that is. I cant tell long term future of drilling rig pricing, other than to say that ultimately current supply is used up and there will be demand for new sources. I think that comes before 2017, but if it doesn't an almost 12% yield gives some margin for error against historical yields, at least. YMMV

  • Reply to

    Yea Or Nay

    by anal.lyst Nov 26, 2014 10:01 AM
    gmax97 gmax97 Nov 26, 2014 1:15 PM Flag

    The company has guided to a bump of $.035-$.04 per qtr increase in the current distribution of $2.21. Its not declared yet, but mgt has provided that guidance. Insider buys back that up as well.

  • Reply to

    Yea Or Nay

    by anal.lyst Nov 26, 2014 10:01 AM
    gmax97 gmax97 Nov 26, 2014 12:32 PM Flag

    Medium term absolutely. First significant lease rolls in 2017, I believe. Longer term will have a lot to do with how long rig lease rates stay down. Of course what always happens in these situations is that older rigs are retired and sold for scrap, and the supply and demand equalize.

  • Reply to

    Yea Or Nay

    by anal.lyst Nov 26, 2014 10:01 AM
    gmax97 gmax97 Nov 26, 2014 12:29 PM Flag

    Your concern with my solvency is touching. But the truth of the matter is, you have no idea of my liquidity, net worth or anything else about me. But I would be happy to measure mine against yours, with the winner shutting up big time for awhile.

  • Reply to

    Yea Or Nay

    by anal.lyst Nov 26, 2014 10:01 AM
    gmax97 gmax97 Nov 26, 2014 11:04 AM Flag

    I am riding with the shooter on this one, in at $18.76. Markets do funny things, but I wont be selling. Clipping coupons on the distribution which they have guided ( all but declared) to $2.35 - $2.37 starting this QTR. That is over 12% on 11 AM price of $19.45. We are discounting payment streams from counterparty the strength of Exxon so I find the yield silly but happy to cashier it.

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