I don't know if you remember me from a couple years ago. Of all the people that I've ever see recommend a stock, your hit on HZNP was the most dead nuts prediction I've ever seen.. I should have listened to what you were hearing and trusted my gut. What, if anything are you looking at these days?
For what it's worth, I have no problem envisioning a 5 bagger from here. This is wound care and not cancer care. If this were a conceptual cancer drug company with zero sales and a partner in CELG, this would be trading with a stratospheric valuation, but alas, their stock in trade is wound care and infection mitigation.
I say 400 million valuation is not unbreasonable because I continually remind myself of their lidocane patch which is clinically better and more user friendly than Lidoderm from Enzo pharma which has sales in excess of 1 billion annually. ALQA also have a functioning FDA approved manufacturing facility so it''s not like they're coming to the party without any presents... I think that it will be an interesting year for ALQA in 2015. Of course, this stock has proven me wrong on many occasions. I don't think so this time. I say parabolic if the market stays strong.
Perhaps now it'll start to get interesting. I've never seen a company so cleanly do the things that it's said that it's going to do. Eventually someone's going to start believing in these guys.
I don't think that they'll have to if they get this billing code. I think that this will set up a buy of the company by Celg. Biovance has to be a lot more valuable than the paltry valuation of ALQA presently. I also think it's significant that ALQA owns an FDA approved pharmaceutical plant. That's got to be worth something in the whole scheme of things.
The way I view this, if they get a billing code, this is off to the races. I remember liking this a year ago because they devised a better, faster working lidocaine patch. Enzo does over a billion in Lidoderm sales and this can't be overlooked by Celgene.
It is a binary event. Biovance is more expensive because it is a far better product and they have to make sure that there will be reimbursement for it's use. It is not a "Me Too" product and my bet is that with that abstract about healing second degree burns in half the time, the case can probably be made that money is saved by lessening the chance of infection. But I'm not a doctor, I only play one on Yahoo Message Boards. What do I know?
In this day and age of non innovative products that simply piggyback off other products, Biovance is a clearly superior product, and I hate to think we've gotten to the point with Obamacare that the edict is out that "we don't want to spend extra"
Please don't start the misguided hysteria about reverse splits. Some work and some don't. They are not always as you've said the " kiss of death" Reverse splits are good for getting uplisted and for opening up the market. R/S's increase the liquidity which should always be a consideration when buying micro caps.
I bought ALQA a year ago at .07 cents, they reverse split the stock 42.75 for 1. The stock had since gone over $10.00 (which was better than a tripling of the price) but has since retraced. Even though the stock has retraced however, it's still up over 50% from a year ago. Painting with a broad brush never works and it messes up the canvas.
Please also check the history of Bio Sante pharma. It was BPAX last year and after a R/S, it is now ANIP and the gains after the R/S have been among the most enviable on Wall Street.
You're better off identifying the motivation behind a R/S rather than ascribing a reflexive cynicism.
Makes sense to me. I've been screaming lately that if all this rush to safety, parks money into US dollars, we are screwed. What's so safe about a currency that has funded and unfunded debt into the 100 trillion dollar range with a sluggish economy that will never be able to support that debt? There's a thing called the "normalcy factor" which gives people a false sense of security that, since all problems in the past have been dealt with, that they will continue to be dealt with and we move on. This debasing of almost every currency is one of those scenarios that's going to be impossible to escape from.
If Johnson had sold at the high he'd be accused of pumping and dumping. I'm not going to chastise a CEO who's done everything that he said he would do, cashing in a bit of his stock. I always follow the college tuition rule as it applies to insiders selling stock if it is a relatively modest amount of their entire holding. These guys have lives and exist for more than just us shareholders.
The whole idea behind running a public company with stock is the ability to turn that paper into cash. Johnson has earned that right to do that. I will also show you buys from other insiders at almost twice the price. These guys aren't financial analysts, they're guys who either need cash, or want to put their cash into something they think will make them money. I'd say that's what we have here.
I have always been a big backer of ALQA and my biggest mistake was underestimating how long the learning curve and product education would take. This Celgene deal does recognize once again ALQA's ability to execute.
One of these days I'm going to be right on ALQA if for nothing else, knowing to follow the activities of CELG who has proved to be a fairly reliable partner over this past year.
Apparently Celgene's is getting more convinced that Biovance is going to be a success and is willing to bank on it. I think that now Celg will increase their position in ALQA within the next month. I always forget that these Biotechs are patient and prefer hedging their bet. Their bet appears to be getting better hedged.
Have you always been crazy? You seem to exist merely for your own enjoyment. Thank you for explaining to us what most on this board already knew. It's been a tough road, but we'll get through it.
Just checking to see how much the sense of humor on this MB has deteriorated.
Your girlfriend seeing something here is telling. Although not scientific, when I started to get interested in Luviva, I thought that I'd ask women that I knew who wouldn't be offended about pap smears. To the woman, everyone felt that if Luviva worked as advertised, they would love it. I also think that providing a gynocologist an opportunity to perform this procedure in their office, which will provide revenue to his practice, doesn't hurt the acceptability of the procedure.
Most sane people are global warming deniers. Unfortunately they're becoming too few in number. That's why I'm a bit curious as to why a seemingly rational individual would show up out of the blue to conduct the textual equivalent of a drive by shooting? I'm not overly concerned that the company is paying off the debt the insiders loaned the company. It's tough enough trying to work through the maze like Cartwright has, the company doesn't need him to also be their banker. It didn't however hurt that he was willing to do so.
This is about getting them past the FDA and taking things from there. Worrying about how they get there at this point is like your wife nagging you incessantly about landscaping the entire 1/2 acre backyard, and when you finally do it and get it done, the first words out of her mouth are " Did you have to put that bush there?
I gave you a thumbs up. I wish everything had gone a bit more smoothly, but like you said everything's out. The calender waits for no one and your talking of a possible early approval isn't wishful thinking. Kum Baya
It's one thing to say you have a theory, it's another to say the theory you have. Please tell me your theory. I promise you that if the theory sounds plausible, the first thumbs up will be mine.
Ed, I'll give you your props on this. There's no way that they'll issue the entire amount however. It is a shelf offering. Adding up the finance deals, I saw that the money they raised wouldn't get them to the FDA decision unless the FDA decides to approve before the 180 days. Which is possible..
Right now they're probably going to do a raise that will safely get them past the FDA with some room to spare. It'll sure beat looking at these piecemeal deals. Good thing is that the FDA decision is within earshot and does change things dramatically if approved, which I'm still betting on.
having a company on the verge of FDA approval trading at an almost historic low and a paltry 20 million dollar valuation isn't a terrible situation to be in. Especially if you think you know Luviva.
If Luviva does receive approval as triage device, immediately thoughts will turn to "what if" as a first run diagnostic? The amount of money Luviva can save the US healthcare system as a first run diagnostic will dwarf today's paltry valuation. 15 million or so to conduct clinical trials to be a first run diagnostic with the prospect of kicking pap smears in the teeth might be attractive to the big boys.
As expensive as this recent $700,00.00 loan is, I'd dare say that in order to get an equity investment for that amount of money would have required at least an additional 3 million shares with 3 million warrants to make it attractive. That increases the shares outstanding by an additional 8 or 9 percent. They risk the loss of a million plus in inventory and you really should ask the question, "do you honestly think that Cartwright would jeopardize that inventory if he didn't have a plan B or C?
Guided obviously feels that their case is strong for Luviva and no one should delude themselves that there isn't a big picture here for Luviva as a first run diagnostic test. As far as market acceptance, you tell a Gynecologist that they can have a device in their office that can be run by a PA, that will keep their pap smear dollars in house. and that could be half the battle. These kind of things are attractive to the big boys in diagnostics who are more than anxious to have healthy discussions after Guided has done all the heavy lifting.
I've continually reminded everyone here that Cartwright by his own admission is not interested in issuing stock just to issue stock.
He (Cartwright) has contributed far more than he's taken from this company and I defy anyone to show me a situation where the compensation math ever favors the company over it's CEO?
Ed, GTHP could have found any Investment banker to do an offering for a 10% fee and stock options long before this. I've seen a lot more questionable situations raise boatloads prior to an FDA decision so I think you better start considering the companies motivation behind what their doing . If you really truly believe in the technology, then there's nothing to fear.. If the FDA chooses in it's infinite wisdom to deny approval for Luviva, they'll be the first in the world to have done so. I'm going to play the odds and think that even the FDA can't be that cynical as to slap the faces of their compatriot scientists in every other country that's think Luviva is an acceptable method of women's diagnostic treatment.