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Linn Energy, LLC (LINE) Message Board

go5shawk 16 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 22, 2014 1:45 PM Member since: Apr 5, 2012
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  • go5shawk go5shawk Jul 22, 2014 1:45 PM Flag

    Joe, are you short the stock? BTW, PCEC (which is not ROYT and probably has many more properties in various stages of production than ROYT) must be ultra conservative (i.e., not realistic) in its filings. All companies do that and it is for the most part nonsense which they write just to look responsible if they are hit with frivolous lawsuits. Don't consider every remotely possible speculation you read in a company filing to be gospel.

  • Reply to

    Ballot measure and possible results

    by dorkymcirish Jul 21, 2014 9:45 AM
    go5shawk go5shawk Jul 22, 2014 1:27 PM Flag

    bigbear - hopefully the LINE analogy won't play out. ROYT may be too small to draw SA writers, and it's definitely off the radar of big bullies like Cramer and Barron's. Also, the bad news is a specific event only months away, and not an open ended gloom and doom attack which could last indefinitely. I think whatever discounting we get will happen now, and the pps will stabilize at some lower level well before the event. It may even come back a bit just before or after the vote itself, because investors typically overreact to bad news and will realize they overplayed it. The stock has already gone down nearly 15%. If it drops to 10, the fall would be in the 23%-25% area. Then it might be a buy because one would guess the Santa Barbara restrictions would have a minimal effect on current payouts and would probably not affect future payouts by more than 25%. Dorky's scenario of extended expensive court battles may be possible but at this point is just wild speculation.

  • Reply to

    am i missing something

    by larry2607 Jul 11, 2014 12:17 PM
    go5shawk go5shawk Jul 11, 2014 1:17 PM Flag

    Something has spooked the entire MLP industry.

  • Reply to

    Bullish cross today on the moving averages

    by lordofdoggtown Jul 9, 2014 8:21 PM
    go5shawk go5shawk Jul 11, 2014 1:15 PM Flag

    dogg - you are reminding me of Cramer. Whatever your charts say, do the opposite!

  • Reply to

    $1.60 difference in the price of LINE vs: LNCO

    by sandra888us Jul 7, 2014 10:09 PM
    go5shawk go5shawk Jul 11, 2014 1:10 PM Flag

    Not sure if I would assume 95% of BRY holders were playing arbitrage and are now gone. Even if they are, the buyers who replaced them are even newer LNCO holders, and would see the recent run up as a tempting exit for a profit.

  • Reply to

    $1.60 difference in the price of LINE vs: LNCO

    by sandra888us Jul 7, 2014 10:09 PM
    go5shawk go5shawk Jul 11, 2014 4:20 AM Flag

    Cranky, the only other time the new LNCO holders (from BRY) saw higher LNCO prices was shortly after the merger when they had no idea just how high it would go. It flirted with 33 briefly, but fell back and has only now recovered from a several month funk. The point is that the last few weeks has been a logical place for the BRY people to exit LNCO if they are not entirely convinced they want to stay with the company.

  • Reply to

    $1.60 difference in the price of LINE vs: LNCO

    by sandra888us Jul 7, 2014 10:09 PM
    go5shawk go5shawk Jul 9, 2014 1:39 PM Flag

    LINE's holders have typically held their stock longer than LNCO holders. They would be hurt more by selling because the basis in their shares has been lowered by the years of distributions and they would suddenly have a huge tax bill (capital gains). LNCO holders have typically held the stock since the BRY merger, and can trade their shares without that tax burden. Also, from the perspective of LNCO holders (who got the stock in the 20s), they are currently experiencing personal all time highs in the stock, and there may be some temptation to sell and take $$ off the table. Bottom line is that LINE's legacy holders are not selling because of the tax burden and LNCO's recent holders are tempted to sell at what they see as their personal all time highs in the security. This means there are more LNCO sellers than LINE sellers, and that tends to lower the price of LNCO relative to LINE because of the basic law of supply and demand (i.e., LNCO's "supply" is higher because of the sellers). Personally, I am not locked into a long term tax relationship with LINE, and so I own LNCO for its higher yield and simpler tax reporting.

  • Reply to

    CRAMER

    by miketelford72 Jul 3, 2014 6:16 AM
    go5shawk go5shawk Jul 3, 2014 12:21 PM Flag

    Sandra, after he said what you quoted, his little mind (but big ego) looked around for an "out," and latched on what proved to be a 2013 non-issue. Dumb, I know. Pathetic, even. But now his little mind feels justified for missing the LINE rally.

  • go5shawk go5shawk Jul 1, 2014 7:37 PM Flag

    You're splitting hairs, ronharv. By your own admission, you believe he implied "all analysts." So why challenge my phrase "most analysts"? (Agreed: I should have said he *implied* rather than *said* that most analysts thought Devon got the better deal.) As for accusing Barron's when it was an individual columnist speaking, Barron's *is* its writers, and he was speaking as a Barron's representative rather than for himself. As for your statement "the major part of the short article was, after all, positive about Linn and the deal" -- as coochy stated, one could hardly miss his snide/snarky tone. IMO, if Ben *really* had negative information from other analysts regarding the deal, he would have quoted them. As it was, all he could do was report the only information available (i.e., Raymond James' positive remarks) and *imply* that Raymond James' opinion was contrary to general opinion. OTOH, just as Barron's is always negative re Linn, so is Motley Fool always positive. I just happen to believe the latter is closer to the truth than the former (or I would not have invested heavily in this company).

  • Barron''s Ben Levisohn snarkily relayed Raymond James' enthusiasm by saying that most analysts feel Devon got a good price and implying that Raymond James ("Surprise!") showed its usual stubborn bias in favor of LINN Energy). I really wonder why Barron's continues to have an agenda against the company.

  • Reply to

    Deal

    by rrb1981 Jun 30, 2014 10:34 AM
    go5shawk go5shawk Jun 30, 2014 12:56 PM Flag

    Well said! And a refreshing change from all the political whining which had taken over this forum.

  • Reply to

    Crammer

    by fmalad Jun 17, 2014 7:06 PM
    go5shawk go5shawk Jun 20, 2014 12:50 PM Flag

    If only he *were* bearish. Now that he has stated it's going even higher, we shouldn't be surprised if the rally stalls.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    permian

    by thegreatone561 Jun 11, 2014 4:00 PM
    go5shawk go5shawk Jun 12, 2014 1:12 PM Flag

    greatone --- how much have you had to drink today???

  • Reply to

    for those who favor the deal

    by thegreatone561 May 23, 2014 9:26 AM
    go5shawk go5shawk May 23, 2014 1:30 PM Flag

    A year or so ago, it seems an argument in favor of the BRY deal was that BRY had personnel with drilling expertise who would make it easier for LINE to go oily and possibly develop Permian acreage with the revolutionary "horizontal drilling." So what happens? We sell half of that acreage to go *less* oily, notwithstanding that we now have BRY and its drilling experts on board. LINE seems to have doubled back from its original plan A, and plan B is to sell off our most promising long term oily assets to ensure at least a 1.0 coverage of the current distribution. It's still too early to know if BRY was an outright mistake, but it's looking more and more like we would have been better off scuttling the BRY deal and not obligating ourselves to pay that 10% dividend to tens of thousands of previous BRY shareholders in exchange for a non-accretive acquisition.

  • Reply to

    show me the money

    by jim_hairball May 22, 2014 2:17 PM
    go5shawk go5shawk May 22, 2014 3:20 PM Flag

    Wait, yesterday you said you have 15K shares. That's close to a half million dollars. Now you say "I maybe a small investor.." Your posts lack credibility.

  • Reply to

    Is this math correct regarding the deal?

    by lexpress56 May 21, 2014 5:34 PM
    go5shawk go5shawk May 21, 2014 10:17 PM Flag

    Dude, you posted a month or two ago that you were finished with this company. Now they announce some good news and you suddenly have 15K shares. You flip more than Cramer!

LINE
31.17-0.20(-0.64%)Jul 25 4:00 PMEDT

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