Looking at the pattern over the last several months, the share price seems to peak around the 1st to the 3rd of the month, or just a few days *before* the monthly distribution is declared. If past trends continue, your best bet to sell may be around Aug 1 or 2. But the longer term trend is ever downward, so don't look for much more than 20 or 20.5 even then.
Brokers credit the dividend whenever they get around to it. Some are more efficient than others. My broker is *always* late. Welcome to the real world. When your dividend is credited is a broker issue and is irrelevant to the discussion of LNCO/LINE.
Thank you gratewesturn for now telling us "you should have sold a long time ago." Hindsight is 20-20. Where was your advice when LNCO was selling for $40? It wasn't on this board. So your smug "I told you so" attitude is laughable. You didn't tell us so. You're simply reading a stock chart over a 2.5 year period and telling us what we needed to know 2.5 years ago. Brilliant.
Definitely not. These leveraged ETNs are risky. In the year I've followed CEFL, it has shrunk much more in share price than it has given back in distributions. And that's in a relatively stable interest rate environment. Now that the Federal Reserve is finally considering raising rates, it should suffer even more. I only bought a pittance, but I'm looking to get out on the next good day. I would say that even with the liberal distributions, I have a net loss of about 20% for the last twelve months.
The Saudis seem to think if the price is low enough for long enough, they will eliminate their competitors in North America. Unfortunately for them, oil production here will ramp up again at whatever time S.A. decides it would rather sell its oil for $100 instead of half that. What is better for them....keeping their prices low to force a handful of weaker North American oil companies to disappear (and transfer their oil assets to larger companies), or reducing production slightly to raise oil back to $100? With their current strategy, the winners are oil consumers and the losers are the oil producers, both in USA and Saudi Arabia. They're shooting themselves in the foot because they will never eliminate North American oil unless they are prepared to live with $50-$60 oil forever. I'm not sure at what point they will realize this, but I would think they will eventually realize that a few bankruptcies in North America are not worth the price of perpetually low oil prices.
Whatever Cooperman says, do the opposite. He was also touting SD (Sandridge Oil) at $6. It has fallen to 75 cents. Even he didn't sell until it fell well below $2. Not much of a stock guru in my opinion. How did he ever get rich???
Also check out UWTI, which is the flip side of the DWTI coin. The "U" in UWTI means "UP" (relative to wti) and the "D" in DWTI means "DOWN." A good swing to catch with UWTI would be to buy around 3.2 and sell over 3.5. When you sell above 3.5, you then consider buying DWTI around 60, etc. All this assumes you feel oil will essentially remain in its current state of equilibrium. If it makes a strong and sustained move out of its current trading range, and you happen to be holding the wrong security, it would be painful...
Exactly. That's why DWTI seems relatively safe at this point, and a good candidate to trade when it dips. I don't see the Saudi's capitulating to American shale in the immediate future. I think oil has found a temporary equilibrium at around $60 wti.
Gumby, if the oil market is flooded, DWTI would go up three times faster than the price of oil drops. If oil drops to 45, DWTI would go from 61 to 120-140. Because I still have a considerable position in LNCO, I find the brief periods when I own DWTI give me a bit of a hedge aganist a collapse in oil prices.
For short term trading, I'm finding DWTI interesting. It's leveraged to go down when oil goes up.It was a big loser when oil went from low 40s to 60. But now that oil is fluctuating in a more stable range of 58 to the low 60s, DWTI is doing the same in a range from the high 50s to just over 70. Volume is quite high for DWTI, and the price can swing dramatically in a short time. It's really good for catching short term swings in oil. At the moment, buying DWTI anywhere in the 50s looks like money in the bank in a very short time. OTOH, if you think it likely that oil will break out anytime soon, this is not the security for you!