Don't foget that INTU is going to have a cash
horde after they are done selling off XCIT, unless the
Internets crash before the sale. With only 60 million
shares outstanding, they could buy quite a few shares
back or they can make aquisitions. Probably both.
I have been with Elan since the early 90s. It was
volitle in the past due to the creative accounting. With
the growth in product sales and other revenues, the
creative accounting issue is not much of an issue and
getting smaller everyday. You are seeing herd mentality
right now. Do what you need to do to sleep well at
night. This stock will do well in the long term.
Please check out the February issue of Oncology
magazine, page 233. It details the clinical trials of
MGI-114. It is a call to arms for Oncologists to send
patients to the trials. It also details the side effects
seen in the PIs. MGI Pharma has open 3 PIIs and 1 PI.
The NCI has 10 PIIs and 1 PI. The article also
indicates more PIIs are coming from the NCI. MGI Pharma has
expanded their prostate trial since it's start in July '98
and is in the process of expanding it's ovarian
trial. The CEO Charles Blitzer has stated in open
presentations that MGI-114 is safe and the side effects are
controlled by other drugs. This is not the type of activity
of a drug that has worse wide effects that efficacy.
I think Dr. Von Hoff, at the April AACR, is hosting
the New Drug Symposia. He did a lot of work on
MGI-114 and has published papers. Check out his symposia.
Also, there should be, perhaps 7-9 abstracts of MGI-114
there too. Come to the MOGN board and let us know what
you find. Thanks
Watch for many abstracts at the AACR pertaining
to the effectiveness and toxicity. You will be
surprised! Also, watch for much activity with the NCI. It is
going on right now! You will be surprised at what the
NCI is doing here.
People, don't confuse effectiveness with ease of
use (limited side effects). RFS-2000 looks like it
has relatively small side effects. But, look at
Taxol. It is not water soluble. I understand it is more
difficult to administer than other cancer treatments.
Compare it to 5-FU. 5-FU is easier to administer and
cheap relative to Taxol. But Taxol has over $1 billion
is US sales. Why, because it is more effective for
more different types of cancers (BMY marketing doesn't
hurt too). I don't know how good RFS-2000 is. That is
what the phase trials will tell us. Same for MGI-114.
But, if RFS-2000 was much better than Gemzar, fast
track would be a possibility. I do not see that.
RFS-2000 has had some success in PII. It probably will
make it to marketing because pancreatic cancer has no
effective CURRENT treatments. I am not invested in SUPG and
have never shorted a stock. I have found SUPG
interesting but has some negatives that are keeping me away
right now. I do own MOGN, lots of it. I, like you hope
our cancer drug comes to market. I look at the
MGI-114's preclinicals (look great!). I see how MGI-114 did
in the PI (some pancreatic and other successes
too!). Good so far! PIIs are looking good so far
(prostate PII expanded). Why did I chose MOGN over SUPG?
MGI-114 looks great in the preclinicals (repeated 100s of
times unlike ENMD). NCI endorsement with PIIs. And MOGN
has enough money (profitable and growing revenues
faster than expenses) to go all through the PIIIs and
NDA. What are the negatives? Well, the phase trials
could bust out at any time. Not statistically
significant. I have seen PIIIs bust out so there are no
guarantees. And, there could be a better products coming to
market at any time (gene therapy? angiogenesis? cancer
vaccines?). When I first looked at RFS-2000, I was worried
about my MOGN investment. Looks like Pancreatic will
probably be one of the cancers that MGI-114 will be
effective against. Why am I less worried about RFS-2000?
Because I can't find much published data about it's
effectiveness. Just info from the company. I don't like that. I
am not bad mouthing RFS-2000 or SUPG. I wish you
success. My advise to you is take a look at what else is
going on. Take a look at MOGN. Any and all are welcome
to the Yahoo MOGN BB. Rowdy is a frequest poster
Yes you are right that is too early to
tell how effective a treatment MGI-114 is going too
be. It is in PII trials with the NCI and the company,
at total of 8 PII trials and one Pediatric PI.
MGI-114 has shown responses in pancreatic and prostate
cancers (news items). As far as toxicity, yes there is
toxicity but it is controlled with other drugs.
My offer still stands to come to the MOGN BB.
Here is the latest press release. Complete shrinkage
in 9 out of 10 mice. P1 patient with 70% remission.
Other posters, no need to chastize me.
This is my last post. We welcome all not just
There is a shortage of effective treatments for
cancer. I am sure patients do not care that it is a new
idea or not, as long as it is prolonging their lives.
I read this board often. AS/ES may be a terrific
new treatment, it may only be as good as some of the
other new drugs in trial. Time will tell not the
constant bickering between the longs and the shorts.
Neither side apprears to be willing to open their eyes.
There is no shortage of controversy here. MGI-114 is
already shrinking tumors in human trials. Based on what
is going on with AS/ES, MGI-114 may actually be on
the market before AS/ES is in human trials. I mean
AS/ES not just AS or ES. This could/will be years.
Come on over to the MOGN BB board. MGI Pharma has
a cytotoxin MGI-114 in various Phase II trials. We
are interested in discussion and want to be
level-setted where possible. We have various representation
from financial, investor, and even a person who helped
develop MGI-114 at UCSD on board. We are lite on
oncologist. You would be welcomed here.
Elan has been a great stock over the last 8
years. I believe it is in the top 50 or so stocks for
total return 1990 - 1997 (IBD). It tends to split at
the 50+ level but hasn't yet. The company has a very
good growth rate that I believe is accelerating (last
quarter was +40% income +80% revenues). It is targeting
$1 billion revenue by 2001 (currently $600 million)
but could likely exceed that. I have seen analysts
claim that it has a terrific drug pipeline that rivals
competitors 10 times larger but I am not entirely sure of
this. It does have some good potential drugs in the
pipeline. The company has been on an acquisition binge of
late and has continued to grow the company. I think
the Neurex acquisition will be great and it will
probably buy Sheffield in the future and start a pulmonary
drug division with it. Hope this helps. Any
corrections if needed?