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Western Digital Corporation Message Board

go_gatrz 12 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 3, 2014 10:51 AM Member since: Nov 3, 1998
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  • Reply to

    MCV or Flee?-II

    by v1kes_won Aug 2, 2014 1:02 PM
    go_gatrz go_gatrz Aug 3, 2014 10:51 AM Flag

    If you are a contrarian, and also think the market seldom rewards the consensus (in the slightly longer term than a few days), just read all the investment news websites and CNBC: they have been warning ... nay ... begging for a correction for months. It doesn't take a math wiz to count the number of negative stories vs the number of positive stories.

    It has been well documented that many of the so-called "professionals" have been sitting on the sidelines with too much cash, resulting in underperformance to the general market.

    Whether it's Monday or the whole rest of the month, the low volumes on the market are making it very easy for the traders with the fast computers and large bank accounts to manipulate stocks ... and markets.

    Alternatives that yield any sort of return are slim. Real estate is backing off a small bubble (ie, returns going forward will be more problematic and less liquid). Bonds .... well, I'm no bond guy, but if rates are supposed to tick up even a little, that can't be good. Cash in the mattress ... can lead to bedbugs.

    So what are you left with? It will be a game of chicken with stocks. Who will be the first to bail out? The bulls or the bears?

  • Reply to

    Go_Gatrz &Vikes1

    by tysonscox76 Mar 31, 2014 6:59 PM
    go_gatrz go_gatrz Aug 1, 2014 8:19 AM Flag

    What onesurfed said - the stats have been/are skewed due to the ~$600Mill+ charge for the arbitration taken in June 2013 qtr. Relative to most other stocks in the market, WDC is still undervalued. If you want to fuss about the overall stock market, that's a different conversation.

    Consumer market for PCs is still weak ... real action is in commercial. Maybe the consumer will wake up in the last half of the year.

    Finally, as they noted in the CC, they need to distribute more cash to the shareholders.

  • Reply to

    Typical Wall Street response

    by go_gatrz Jul 30, 2014 8:08 PM
    go_gatrz go_gatrz Jul 31, 2014 7:50 AM Flag

    Yep, another typical response. And if anybody heard a real negative on the CC, share it. Sounds like positive moves in the overall market. Sure wish MOFCOM would get out of the way. This company might make another $1.50/yr EPS from that alone.

  • WDC beats them again.

    WDC gives their typically conservative guidance.

    Wall Street creates their typically shortsighted response ... sell the stock.

    WDC will beat them again.

  • Reply to

    Will Seagate be impacted

    by rlolsen_1999 Jul 29, 2014 4:44 PM
    go_gatrz go_gatrz Jul 30, 2014 9:15 AM Flag

    Not the corporation currently trading under the STX symbol. SEG was a US corporation, which got taken private. Then the private SEG got sliced and diced, with the HDD remains sold to New SAC. The current corporation known as Seagate was incorporated in the Caymans.

    STX does not fit the mold of what is current being bandied about by the Prez as off-shoring. WDC on the other hand, does. However, it is criminal that the US taxes income that is entirely earned outside the US, so I will not shed a tear for either side.

  • Reply to

    Before tomorrow's second half kickoff...

    by defunctmail Jul 29, 2014 10:43 AM
    go_gatrz go_gatrz Jul 30, 2014 8:26 AM Flag

    "Methinks STX and WDC understand each other - and how to make money."

    Methinks they know MOFCOM is still watching both, especially WDC. And neither wants to upset the apple cart at this particular moment in time. I think both STX & WDC are letting Toshiba have an easier time of it than would normally be the case. Getting the MOFCOM shackles removed from WDC will be a very big deal for them - without impacting market share at all.

    Not saying either will do something stupid in the future, but the HDD market has been amazing quiescent during a relatively slow growth period. Which is a very good thing.

  • Reply to

    Will Seagate be impacted

    by rlolsen_1999 Jul 29, 2014 4:44 PM
    go_gatrz go_gatrz Jul 30, 2014 8:19 AM Flag

    STX - the current incarnation of Seagate - never existed as a US-based corporation. Can't be accused of going off-shore if you never were on-shore.

  • Reply to

    Gonna get shredded tomorrow

    by i_likemidgets Jul 16, 2014 5:50 PM
    go_gatrz go_gatrz Jul 16, 2014 11:43 PM Flag

    I have no idea what the market will do, but what hurt SNDK: "Average selling prices for its chips fell 16% vs. Q1 and 26% vs. a year earlier, which was surprising, Freedman said."

    Will not hurt WDC.

    What is most important tomorrow will be what STX says after the close.

  • Reply to

    Ahhhh ... seems like old times

    by ohgoodgriefagain Jul 8, 2014 10:16 AM
    go_gatrz go_gatrz Jul 11, 2014 7:31 AM Flag

    "Gatrz were in the lead car"

    Maybe that's where all my gray hair came from over the last 10 years. :)

  • Reply to

    Go_Gatrz &Vikes1

    by tysonscox76 Mar 31, 2014 6:59 PM
    go_gatrz go_gatrz Jul 11, 2014 7:29 AM Flag

    Hello Tyson ....

    I have no further info on the MOFCOM restrictions other than what WDC said: "In March 2014, we submitted an application to MOFCOM requesting that the regulatory restrictions be lifted. However, we cannot
    predict whether or when these restrictions will be wholly or partially lifted."

    But it is the most significant impact that might effect WDC in the near future.

    Also, we've gotten no further info about the arbitration hearing in Minn. since 2/5/14. While the costs have been absorbed (set aside) by WDC if they lose, it would be nice to clear the air.

    So there are a couple of issues outstanding with WDC that can impact the stock price. Getting rid of the MOFCOM shackles would be a huge positive.

  • go_gatrz go_gatrz Jun 28, 2014 10:55 AM Flag

    OK, gravity. I'm not necessarily a big fan of the stuffed taco approach. STX still spends plenty of time on the financial engineering; WDC (& STX) are devoting more attention to the flash aspect of the storage business.

    Yes, the AD technology curve on HDD has flat-lined. Helium just allows more taco meat between the shells; same thing for slowing the platter RPM or roofing the sectors (shingles).

    But exactly what is the market demanding?

    If the market demanded (and was willing to pay for) advancing the magnetic AD, maybe they would push it harder. Right now, the most robust demand is in the age old Desktop segment. And the most popular drives in that segment: 500GB and 1TB. Which have already been reduced to the lowest common platform: a single platter. How would spending 100's of millions of dollars on AD upgrades make those platforms better? Right now, those "old technology" DT drives still command good margins not far removed from enterprise - they still sell for 25% more than they did in Aug. 2011 (just before the floods). These drives have retained more of their post-flood margin bump than any other drive. STX & WDC sell ~ 42Mill/qtr vs ~14Mill enterprise class drives. Maybe AD enhancement would help enterprise, but it would have minimal impact upon the largest segments of the HDD world - desktop and mobile (and by association - the external branded markets).

    HAMR may be 5 yrs away - but the enterprise/cloud market still needs to expand to push these advanced technologies. Which means the entire US broadband infrastructure needs major upgrades to further push cloud utilization. Moving large chunks of data TO the cloud is still an extremely slow endeavor for much of the US. When Netflix stops consuming 35%-40% of bandwidth each evening, you'll know the US is making headway on the broadband front. We ain't there.

  • Reply to

    How is it done?

    by unifihitch Jun 27, 2014 4:25 PM
    go_gatrz go_gatrz Jun 28, 2014 7:42 AM Flag

    Dark pools. And who says it was all legal?

    The Russell rebalancing would be a convenient cover. But I don't see how HTCH is such a factor in that equation to warrant volume 10x above avg. In the overall weighting of the stock universe, HTCH is a very minor factor.

    Curious, indeed.

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