Thanks. I should have took my gains, but held and now the futures and oil are booming tonight. Looks like I will be down on the open and a rally closing above 2000 sure is looking likely. I thought the sell off in Europe today was tell tale, but I think I have been wrong again.
Forgot to add. I have been very wrong about oil. I thought it would not rally like it did. I am still surprised and have to believe a bunch of the climb was simply short covering. I still think oil will drop back to $30 or lower. There is simply no reason for it not too IMO. Reshorted oil this AM also.
I thought Europe actions would be good for at least 3 to 4 sessions, but wow, did that run out of gas fast. I think this will begin the next big down leg in the market. There is no longer interest in the believe that repeating failed policies will work this time. I can smell 1500 on the S&P.
me. Amazing the rally in oil again today with supplies building. Have to believe the Fed is stepping in and buying up futures, really no other explanation.
Quite an impressive rally back from the dead today. We will see how many of these the bulls have in them. I should have sold at 250 down, but got greedy and held. I don't think oil will hold above $30, and the market has no sound fundamentals to rally on IMO. This week will be interesing.
Hi garp. Been tardy during the rally. I think it is now over. Back to reality of low oil and high yield bonds and many banks gettting into trouble. I think we drift back down to 1812 and then we will see if it holds this time or continues to collapse. I don't see it holding.
Oh yes, it is hogwash, but it sure worked magic, just as they new it would So the oil minister just happened to state this at midnight in the UAE just as the S&P hit 1310? But the money made by those in the know of the release time of these rumors would boggle your mind. Meanwhile I am stopped out of 1/2 my position.
As for oil, there will be NO cut. Oil is going to $20 and the high yield junk bond market is going to implode. Meanwhile European banks are probably literally insolvent or close.
Believe according to Dow Theory we entered a bear market today. Might be wrong on that, trying to pull the number out of my memory bank. Think 15,666 or below was the number.
Yep, Dow Jones released another oil cut rumor. Hard to beat these crooks. Just happened to be release when 1812 looked to be substantially breached.
Hard to beat these guys. Just think, they take huge positions and then release rumors. It happens several times a week. Most fixed casino on the planet. The scores of millions made illegally on all these rumors would boggle your mind. Stopped me out once again, this time on 1/2 my position.
Isn't it amazing. Tens of thousands post on Yahoo financial blogs daily and with the market selling off big time for 6 weeks there are exactly THREE of us posting on this board. No one else interested I guess.
The final hour will be interesting. Either a big rally or a big sell I think. But the market is broken, oil is broken, the hgh yield junk market is broken, Washington is broken, the bond market is broken, it's all broken. I stick with my lower highs and lower lows for the foreseeable future. I still think 1500 on the S&P is a real possibility before fall.
No capitulation yet, 1812 held the first time, we will see if it retests and breaks through. But just holding is not a big deal if it can't bounce substantially IMO. 1862 hell the first time too. Still short (the S&P and not even a thought of covering at this time.
Hi guys. I'm in Wyoming, 55 here today. Been warn all week.
No way we have a substainable bounce until we have capitulation IMO. I think it is lower highs and lower lows for the foreseeable future. People are underestimating, I think, the impact on banking and stocks when the high yield energy junk (and the endless related issues related to the industry) start collapsing. That is when the market will really start going down IMO.
it break through it with conviction. For a real bottom we need huge capitulation, and that just might take some time. Mad at myself for allowing most of my position to be taken out, albeit at a profit.
Agree on all counts. Got stopped out on the big rally from 380 down. On the up rally today I bought 3000 more shares. Was going back in with the 5000, but didn't have the conviction with Yellen talking. But seems with oil continuing to fall and Europe's manufacturing coming in worse than expected today the route is not over. Looking ugly for oil tonight too.
bucks, but out now. Expect a rally the next day or two then more selling, but may be wrong. Pretty impressive rally back today. Surprised me.
I should have added this. IMO they are wrong as they say the market is following oil (and commodities) down. I think the market is down on the knowledge of the coming collapse of aforementioned high yield junk debt of energy and commodity companies. That is the REAL reason the market is falling.
Fundamentals and the new downward trend will not be good for longs IMO. Oil is set to crash and the coming collapse of all the high yield energy debt will be a coup de grace to the market IMO.
garp, know you are not talking to me, but since we are about the only ones who post here I will answer. I did not see Barron's, but I certainly agree. What is there to stop the fall other than the Saudi's cutting. They are at war with Iran and Russia in Syria and the middle east, so the Saudi's are not going to cut production. End of story. They can hurt Iran, kill Russia and destroy America's shale companies. A triple win for them. Just another reason I am short the market (long spxs). I think the market tracks oil because the junk bond debacle will track oil. The ten year will go to 2.00% and the S&P to god knows where. Without Fed interference I see 1500 as a gimme, BUT Yellen loves HIllary and wants to see her win, so I think the Fed will step in, but maybe not until 1500 in hopes to drive it back up in the fall, thereby helping Hillary. That is if Hillary is even the nominee. My 2cents (god I wish they had a cent sign on these keypads).
garp. See I used the wrong handle above. I have two, gobrokefast and BRR and forgot to change it when I posted here.. Sorry for the confusion.