The bulls are really delusional. Even on a day with negative overcast, the bulls are still not giving it to the bears. Let's be clear. Tomorrow the bears win. They haven't win in a long time on a Monday morning. Possibly years
Dow will probably be down 180 at open. Barely even 1%. Fear gauge likely goes distortion stele higher because of the unknown how long this will go on and whether we get drawn in. Spot Vix probably opens up 17-20%. Vxx product up maybe 5% at max
That would imply a vix futures move of near 40%. Is that really what you think it will be?
Thanks man. I hope you're right. Everything I read says fear of major war involving first Russia and Ukraine and then maybe NATO getting involved. Generally this is where markets get fearful but I'm hoping for our sake it's not much more than 3% down day for XIV.
Wow you think a 20% move? Are u talking about on Monday or u mean over time? A Monday 20% drop would be devastating. Id get stopped out and lose a lot
The XIV product became disconnected to the spot VIx this week so I bought it Friday cause it seemed like a true up was about to happen at end of day Friday. Obviously then we heard about Ukraine and it made a move the other way. I held on thinking it would true up early next week when this blows over although it's escalated a lot this weekend. I'm hoping my losses are limited. If the Spot Vix can hold onto 15-16, XIV may only go down a little. I'm just scared to see 15% down on XIV at the open and spot Vix near 20. This would be devastating
Volatility curve is about to switch back from 2 days of backwardation to contango today. There is usually heavy downward pressure on the long Vix products. Fairly safe trade too given markets have been down 4 days in a row and nearing a 4% move. I'm going to get in at 8am and see what happens. Good luck
Do me a favor. Don't lie on this board. If it goes green post it, if it doesn't post that. But don't lie