Your points are well taken & have to be respected. Their product is exceptional...reduces the purchaser's costs & improves the atmosphere...transformational product where everybody wins.
What makes this a bad investment, by my standards, is that they won't earn any money until 3 or 4 years from now...a $12 stock with no near term earnings prospects & when they do earn anything,
it will be only from sales commissions that have a finite life as their universe is limited. At least publically owned insurance brokerages, whose earnings are all from sales commissions, the same as VSLR,& who also have an excellent product, have an infinite universe & their earnings can grow forever. VSLR's can't.
I would prefer a company whose base has expanded in 3, 4 or 5 years so tha the base it has established by then will continue to generate profitable earnings on a ongoing basis while still expanding
for future growth. McDonald's. Walmart & Micrcrosoft would have fit that criteria as does Container Store today.
The market has gone up for 7 years & with low money & energy costs, may well continue for a while,
but it can't go up forever & companoes with no earnings get killed disperpotionately in down markets.
So I personally dislike the business model, not the product.
justify buying a stock that is scheduled to lose $3.05 a share in the year ending 12/31/2016? Suppose the final numbers will be announced in March, 2017...about 2 years from now.
And what is their business model...getting a commission on sales. They're not building any residual value other
then they might get a few replacement parts sales over time. What's going to happen when they've "sold out their market"?
In the last anylsis, they're just a sales company with a finite market size which will have nothing to do when that market is sold out & I don't know when they're scheduled to make any money, but at least not for 3 years, if then.
Stocks sell on 2 things: earnings & expectations. This company's earning are at least 3 or 4 years away &
they consist of just sales commissions on a product with a finite market size that will be sold out in the not
too distant future...then what?
Stocks with no earnings get killed in down markets & it seems that, after 7 tears of rising stock prices, that we should see one before too long.
And Zack's is recomending to buy them...literally absurd...I've lost all respect for Zack's.
That's an excellent post - thanks much. To me it begs 2 questions:
1) Who is Capital One? (I thought they were a credit card company).
2) Is it possible to see a copy of that report? Thanks for your help.
Be kind enough to elaborate what "under preview" means. I'm like "longshortbear"...very bullish & very long. On one hand, you want the word to get around to drive the stock up but what's really required is time for the liscense revenue to start...then there will be no stopping the elevation. Thanks for any help you can offer.
Thanks for an excellent post...that's a great article. Some times it seems like it's forever more of the same talk.
They talk & talk & plan & plan & everybody claims it's such a good idea but it seems so slow in coming...
that's not your fault..the article's super positive...lets just started already..
Your comments are actually constructive but need elaboration. You come across as negative when further amplification would be valuable & interesting to this Board. We know you love this situation because you keep
hangng with us. Anyway, let me show you something interesting & actually exciting:
YEAR REVENUE (000 deleted) % INCREASE
2011 19,685 24%
2012 31,697 33%
2013 42,413 33% 6 YEAR Average
2014 45,548 7% of about 27.3%
2015 (e) 63,900 40%
2016 (e) 81,160 27%
I know you know all this, but still it's a relatively special situation, specially when you factor-in all their products,
patents, directions & first time proven instillations in new industries, etc. While some of their prospects may not
be as big as some advocates predict, thier future is still growing & expanding globally & with new know how.
Two things you know, but may forget (1) That kind of growth is very hard to sustain but it looks like they're
going to continue (2) As little companies grow, they become more liquid, become more efficient, get more
& better people & many more things that actually accelerates & compounds their growth.
Anyway, we look forward to hearing more positive things from you, even if you spell color colour.
My target is 20...until it gets recognized...then it should move North from there forever...maybe longer.
Excellent point...are you able to guesstimate when the licensee's identity might surface...and perhaps why?
Probably does't matter if they're a Tier One company but I think when their name is reveiled or announced,
it should impact the stock a lot.
Maybe the guy read his notes this morning California time & started buying, so the show was worthwhile after-all.
"a KLH-based immunotherapy compound" is approved by the FDA. They're silient about the brand name of the KLH...just say KLH.
I interpret that to mean that Stellar's KLH can be used in Celldex's product & if the volume gets big, Steller may supply some,
Do you think I'm correct or incorrect on this assumption? Thanks.
Looks like professional buying to me. Most of the buys in the same price range in a straight line chart. Double the daily volume, but controlled. Somebody's taking a position,..hope it lasts several days or even weeks. I see it as a confirmation our (long's) position. Also think it's positive immediately after the announcment of a pier one type ;icensee. Maybe it's the licensee's investment bank.
Think the announcement about a "tier one" licensee is a dramatic event & typical of this stock, has been by & large unnoticed...even unappreciated.
Now there will be two active approval seekers at the FCC going through the approval process. The duel approach has to be helpful & the talented resources of a large company, seasoned in ths area & investing
heavily in the process is a milestone...they wouldn't have done the license if they didn't think it would work.
They're budgeting big money for the process & thier new products & certainly wouldn't be doing so if they
weren't confident in the program.
They'll be the first major company in the world with this & will be highly motivated to make a big noise about it. The whole electronics world will get excited & need the same thing ASAP.
IMO this is a major milestone in Energous's evolution. Patience is required & remember...stocks sell on two things...earnings & expectations...think this is a special situarion where you're gonna get both.
stocks sell on two things: earnings & expectations.
After this CC, seems like expectations should be very high.
IMO there's two good reasons (1) Even if they don't get ALL the line item approvels from FCC, over time, they should get most which shouldn't significantly reduce their prospects with many, many of their joint development
partners, specially with the impressive membership in their "Scientific Advisery Board", comprised of industry legends & heavyweights. This Board effectively validates or authenticates thier process & should be valuable
in working with the FCC in many ways. (2) Orders for the finalized electronic products that are scheduled "downstream" require all the components on the factory floor well before the production line starts which require Energous shipments months before the products they're incorporated in are introduced to the public.
Think also of their first announced licensee discussed today...they have an ultra sophisticated & seasoned staff
and their not going to start designing & building a product incorportating Energous's components unless they were comfortable they could get it to market, at least in some form. Introducing a new product includes financing, advertising, packaging & a gazillion things that virtually the whole company focuses on, They're tier one - they're pros - they occasionally make small mistakes but not big ones...if they're going to market with with Energous's components, they're pretty sure they'll work.
I think that's all very bullish for the stock's expectations & doesn't preclude revenue before 2016.
If they reach 62 $million in revs in 2015 & then continue their existing growth rate of about 30% which they realized for the preceding 3 years, their revs will be over 100 $million 2 years after
2015...whoile differnt co.