This baby is hot. I would not try to second guess this baby at all. Any minute during trading day, any day, big time news about BABA IPO or even buyout rumor could trigger this baby to $40 to $45 immediately yeah baby. I expect this to top any trading day til IPO Day. Yes!
This will burn a lot short traders without a doubt. September is around the corner and news of BABA IPO details (if big) or strong rumor of a buyout could immediately see YHOO trading $5 to $10 up.
Sorry markets is valuing YHOO core at $0. No negative growth last Q and previous to that, markets is valuing YHOO based solely with their Asian assets.
Any news of IPO valuation of $200B or say even higher, YHOO shares will fly to the moon, $40 is bottom and I will even call YHOO at $45.
If you notice yeas back YHOO owns 40% stakes and Softbank owns 37% putting them together majority control of BABA, yet they are not really no power in making major policy decision. Because it is a Chinese way or how they operate or run a business in China. That is Jack Ma before going IPO in US I think he consulted institutional stockholders from Mr. Son, YHOO, Russian, Silver Lake and others that they (Jack Ma and its original manager will be making major decision for BABA or it means they want to make sure that they are in full control of BABA. So my answer to your poll: it will never happen because BABA will not let it happen.
You have a very valid argument. I never thought about that. If we have a buyout it is very likely it will be a post IPO deal.
More of their tight friendship, Jack Ma is a board member of Softbank and Mr. Son owns a huge chunk of BABA. In Asian friendship, greedy is dirty, unwelcome word for Asian.
You don't know much about the "Asian way". I mean the Asian culture". Mr. Son will never take a risk to break his friendship with Jack Ma, personally and business way. Asian way, YHOO is not worth to break their huge huge friendship I am very confident about that.
"I sold all my position at $38". Well my friend, like many guys said the odd is to stay long at this time and you didn't. Now it is hard for you to come back. Wrong strategy amigo my personal opinion only. It is not wrong to take some profit but wrong to sell it all at this time. You should kept at least half of your holdings because the odd is very strong more dinero coming baby. Once again, it is your money and you think you did the right thing, so be it.
Because BABA IPO is no longer considered a rumor, your trading scenario of YHOO shares does not apply anymore especially next week. The only exception I see is that if you have stock market correction say for about 10%. Still if BABA announce the official IPO date, it could be a deterrent to overrule downside trend for YHOO. So my bet is to stay Long all the way.
This is a Chinese company and that is the way they play this game. However, If we are still in a "quiet period", then I guess BABA is respecting the traditional way to go IPO in the US.
Plus US economic data is also positive and Federal Central Bank policy is very supportive so this Wall Street rally will continue and probably next week will be the same as previous week until IPO Day.
YHOO average volume is about 18M, Friday volume is short of about 4M of the average, yet YHOO managed to close higher. When a trader sells well below current trading price say 15 cents to 30 cents below with big volume, yeah there is very likely YHOO shares is being manipulated my personal opinion only. This price action should be reported to SEC so they can monitor this trading practice.
Now you know such as posting this kind of post expect to get lousy responses and you only get belittled here with your 3rd grade level post on this very intelligent message board. I hope you learned a lesson going forward.
My take is that if no buyout and everything as is, I think you lose. I think your $60 call is at the top end of YHOO price range from current share price. My consolation if MM can be produce sustainable for this coming Q and a very positive forward guidance, yeah I say you have a good chance of YHOO getting to 60 before year's end. Coupled this with YHOO's shares buyback and BABA is aggressively growing bigtime, I think $60 is achievable.
YHOO already spent over $6B doing shares buyback and (post IPO) $10B cash on hand. So really YHOO is helping these buyers to do cash-rich split deal. The main advantage of this deal obviously is the huge tax savings these buyers (Softbank, BABA, MSFT) will get out of the deal in addition to what I previously mentioned.
He can't do it alone, too much money. Plus he is too smart not to do it with partners savings tons of money in billions$$$$ using cash rich split deal. Another thing BABA will not let him do it by himself because he already own 37% of BABA plus 24% of YHOO and (post iPO) 18% that will put him majority owner of BABA and in addition to being the biggest single shareholder of BABA. He has to partner with BABA --BABA will take care of the 18% of YHOO in BABA and possibly MSFT will buy the search business of YHOO.