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American International Group, Inc. Message Board

goldengatesings2 33 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 28, 2014 5:22 PM Member since: Jun 5, 2006
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  • Reply to

    Is it possible?

    by turnermuseum Aug 28, 2014 2:32 PM
    goldengatesings2 goldengatesings2 Aug 28, 2014 5:22 PM Flag

    Where have you been? Amazon has not had any profits for more than 10 years.

  • Reply to

    ACHN - A reality check needed

    by direction2trade Aug 22, 2014 12:15 PM
    goldengatesings2 goldengatesings2 Aug 23, 2014 2:22 PM Flag

    If what you say is true then the market opportunity of drugs like Sovaldi or ACHN or IDIX just went up 100 fold. If the drugs can only contain the virus for 6 months, then these drugs will not eradicate Hep C as the bears are saying.

  • goldengatesings2 goldengatesings2 Aug 4, 2014 12:21 AM Flag

    Before you figure out whether something is nonsense or not, you need to have a brain that works. Please dont rely on your muddled brain to call out people. You just come across like a bent spoon.

  • goldengatesings2 by goldengatesings2 Aug 3, 2014 4:25 PM Flag

    Other bidders may provide alternative options for T-Mobile. While Dish Chairman Charlie Ergen has said that he doesn’t want to get into a bidding war over T-Mobile, Moffett says he shouldn’t be ruled out. The same goes for Carlos Slim’s America Movil SAB, a carrier in Mexico, he said.

    “Even though Carlos Slim has suggested that he’s not interested in acquiring a U.S. operator, it’s hard to give up on the idea that he might be a potential acquirer because America Movil owns a huge customer base here in the U.S.,” Moffett said. The company owns TracFone, a U.S. prepaid business.

    Unlike Slim, Ergen has shown interest in buying U.S. wireless assets. When SoftBank was buying Sprint last year, Dish made a competing offer, then ultimately backed away.

    “Everybody’s been waiting to find out what Charlie Ergen will do,” Moffett said.

  • goldengatesings2 goldengatesings2 Aug 3, 2014 2:27 PM Flag

    The only beneficiaries of a Sprint deal are Sprint investors. T-Mobile investors have to take on reg risk and the market will discount any Sprint offer sig.

    Iliad has already lined up financing with HSBC and BNP. He is also selling $2B of Iliad stock in a secondary to raise funds.

    Have not seen anything but HOT AIR from Son after 8 months. I suggest you respect this bid instead of dismissing it outright. See deal mechanics above.

    Also see the way Numericable bought SFR in france with junk bond issuance. You people are naive to nonsense media reports that do not do any deep analysis but just repeat general thinking.

  • goldengatesings2 goldengatesings2 Aug 3, 2014 2:24 PM Flag

    Do not forget the tax inversion benefits of this deal. It will be instantly accretive to TMUS if they move HQ.

  • goldengatesings2 goldengatesings2 Aug 3, 2014 2:22 PM Flag

    Posting LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLO on a board makes you a winner. Nah you are just one of those losers who calls everybody else a loser because you cant bear to look at yourself in the mirror.

  • goldengatesings2 goldengatesings2 Aug 3, 2014 2:21 PM Flag

    Dont forget the tax inversion benefits of this deal.

  • Reply to

    Run this fact through your 1/2 brain

    by easymoney216 Aug 2, 2014 11:23 AM
    goldengatesings2 goldengatesings2 Aug 3, 2014 5:52 AM Flag

    That is one muddled post.

    You really think the US government is going to care that a French company owns 50+ percent of T-Mobile when a German company DT owns 67% today. Irrelevant.

    Xavier Niel / Iliad only burst into the telecom scene in 2012 in France and has since taken 12% share. So he had no reason to be bidding for a US company at the time.

    Actually your bringing up DISH is a good but your context is incorrect. Son/Sprint is not going to get T-Mo. They would have bid for it by now, if they could. They were stalling hoping that T-Mo would crash and burn this quarter but that did not work either. It does not take 8 months to make an offer...8 months...lot of talk on TV and media and with Washington but no formal offer. Just means that their offer is not being accepted by DT. Not for the $40 price anyway.

    DISH should be bidding for T-Mo but Charlie Ergen appears to be asleep. He was cuckolded so badly in his last three acquisition attempts that he appears to have lost his will to take on Son. The fact is that the primary competitor to the Iliad bid is DISH. DISH could easily takeout T-Mo but they appear to be playing Son's cards. They are gonig to remain 2 bit players with a declining satellite sub base and spectrum that is still to be monetized.

    Its most probably DISH, Iliad, a cable company (say Charter) or a large foreign telecom (NTT Docomo which already has a relationship with T-Mo on a MVNO basis) that will come out the winner here.

    No reason for DT to take on regulatory risk with Sprint. Only way Sprint gets them is with a massive knockout bid for $50 or so...they have to get DT to look past the regulatory risk which even DT is not buying currently although they are all saying they need scale, spectrum and capital.

    Sprint/Son is in a very difficult place.

  • Betting that Ergen/DISH will soon enter fray and make an offer for T-Mo. It is very clear that the Sprint-DT deal has stalled. All this nonsense about them preparing for regulatory hurdles is nonsense. T-Mo does not want the deal that Sprint is offering them.


  • goldengatesings2 goldengatesings2 Aug 3, 2014 12:57 AM Flag

    The stock is trading down in a risk arbitrage scenario which is very normal. They are paying cash for the deal not stock. So the stock price is reflecting their debt load. Its normal. Adding another $3B to the $15B debt is not going to change anything either...see deal analysis above.

  • The fact that Iliad can potentially buy T-Mobile has made many worldwide telecoms sit up and wonder if they could win T-Mobile. If Iliad gets T-Mobile, Sprint's business model is going to be under additional pressure. Not just Sprint but Verizon and T's as well.

    Here is Iliad's play:
    56% of TMUS for $15B $33....current offer.
    Probably will end up with
    51% of TMUS for $15B suggests $36.43 per share
    At $17B for 51% = $41.29 and at
    $18B for 51% = $43.72 a share.

    These estimates are just collaring the current bid and could easily be done by Ilead. So, Ilead has to be now considered a very serious bidder although media reports are discounting them signficantly.

    Now going from $15B to $18B is not going to be hard for Ilead. They have probably already baked an additional $3B into their bid price.

    For Sprint, the acquisition of T-Mobile would have accomplished two things. Stop the bleeding of Sprint stock during the FCC/DOJ review period and the ability to catch up with T-Mobile if the deal is not approved. But recent reports by T-Mobile suggests that DT is not going for the business/capex plan proposed by Sprint during the review period.

    It is very clear that if Ilead gets T-Mobile, the bleeding for the entire US telecom industry is only just starting. With an Ilead like business cost model, T-Mo could seriously wreck the cash flows in the space. It is extremely important therefore that Ilead not get T-Mo. Most so, for Sprint but also for At&t and Verizon.

    Sprint will have to bid in the high-40s now (given the analysis above) to ensure that it gets T-Mobile and makes a case for the merger. It is also possible that DT just takes a $43 or so bid from Ilead and does not entertain Sprint's higher price at all.

    Net, net...Sprint can either make a knockout bid ($50s) and make it impossible for Ilead to get T-Mo. Or it will lose the option (which has its own regulatory risks) to get T-Mo.

    Not looking good for Sprint whichever way you cut it. Sub-$5 is

  • goldengatesings2 goldengatesings2 Jul 26, 2014 5:07 PM Flag

    Total spin. Nonsense from FBR. If they are not merging he will be spinning the duopoly. If they merge, then its still good for VZ and T.

  • Reply to

    Rumors now 3 are lining up

    by followon Jul 22, 2014 10:01 AM
    goldengatesings2 goldengatesings2 Jul 22, 2014 7:22 PM Flag

    It really is two. Dish or Carlos cannot take on Softbank on their own. But they can combine resources to bid for T-Mobile. Slim breaks into US market is a big way...doubles his Tracfone profits and Dish can make a strong play for a wireless carrier along with its fixed wireless broadband vision much like Son is speculating he can do with T-Mobile.

  • Reply to

    UP another 3%

    by zoeoffarta Jul 21, 2014 2:57 PM
    goldengatesings2 goldengatesings2 Jul 21, 2014 9:24 PM Flag

    Why...what happens tomorrow? Son puts out another press release? Ergen the poker player continues slumber?

  • goldengatesings2 goldengatesings2 Jul 15, 2014 7:53 PM Flag

    They can currently serve 3x the number of subscribers that they currently have. Legere is doing a fine job. DT parent company has no vision. Old school dinosaur. They want to expand in Eastern Europe. Idjits.

  • goldengatesings2 goldengatesings2 Jul 15, 2014 7:52 PM Flag

    I do not understand your point...S or DISH would like to have it at a bargain price so TMUS should sell it to them at a bargain price?

  • DT just seems to be desperate to exit the US market. They could easily line up financing for T-Mobile and increase subscribers by 30% in about a year to 18 months in about the time the review will be going through. Very poor parent company. Who would want a parent company like this?

  • goldengatesings2 goldengatesings2 Jul 14, 2014 4:28 PM Flag

    fine enuf...only assumption that i dont get in your thesis is the price that dt will sell its shares to masa...

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