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Yamana Gold, Inc. Message Board

goldmanpillageandsack 169 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 17, 2014 4:30 AM Member since: Apr 27, 2010
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  • goldmanpillageandsack by goldmanpillageandsack Oct 21, 2014 1:57 AM Flag

    Bloomberg spouted some more nonsense today on gold. Quoting Thompson/Reuters inappropriately named "World Gold Council" they say that India is importing only 850 to 950 tons this year compared to last years 974.8 tons. Of course they do not count the gold smuggled into India. In some months, nearly 100 tons were smuggled in and the average was about 60 tons per month. Conservatively, there were 700 tons smuggled into India putting real consumption at roughly 1,700 tons.

    It is easy to see why. With gold trading at $1,247 on the world market, gold in India was trading for immediate delivery at $1,393 per ounce. The premium is a staggering $146 per ounce!

    They of course spouted the same garbage from Morgan Stanley that gold will fall to $1,165 by September of 2015.

    Of course any person with a modicum of objectivity can see that the worlds central banks are at war with each other and they are printing as fast as they can to remain competitive in their export markets. Deflation is knocking at their doorsteps and the only solution they have is "Print Baby Print".

    Methinks the authors of the article drank too much of those evil, sugary, carbonated beverages!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Reality check

    by goldmanpillageandsack Oct 7, 2014 7:19 AM
    goldmanpillageandsack goldmanpillageandsack Oct 20, 2014 9:18 PM Flag

    Guidance will have to be adjusted again to the downside:

    Oil is now down another 7% to $84 and nat gas is cheaper as well…

    Look for guidance closer to $30 million in revenue going forward!

    Garth better figure out how to get financing and not dilute his shareholders again. He also better figure out how to successfully drill deep wells.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    "Income Inequality" According to Feds

    by bollingr_band Oct 18, 2014 7:35 PM
    goldmanpillageandsack goldmanpillageandsack Oct 20, 2014 9:09 PM Flag

    I agree that the Fed needs to put money into the hands of the people where it will be spent and increase the velocity of money. All Americans would benefit.

    But we are talking about the Fed, and the last thing the Fed is concerned about is the people of the United States. The Fed will do what is best for its Banking Cartel.

    That said, the Fed is running down a narrowing gauntlet of distrust in the world. Nation after nation is trying to compete against the stacked odds that the western banks have created. So many of them have been burned deeply by the World Bank, IMF and the banks that they will never trust us again. At some point the nations along the gauntlet started swinging sticks at the Western Bankers. Iraq tried to trade it's oil outside of the dollar and was annihilated. Iran tried and was slammed with sanctions. Russia declared war on the petrodollar and look at the consequences there.

    Regardless of these examples, many nations are turning to the Chinese banking system and soon the BRICS Bank in order to diversify their holdings and to do business in their native currencies. China now holds nearly $5 trillion in foreign currency reserves, but now less than $2 trillion of those reserves are denominated in dollars.

    The world is changing fast...

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Am I missing something?

    by cvwnco Oct 17, 2014 10:14 PM
    goldmanpillageandsack goldmanpillageandsack Oct 20, 2014 10:32 AM Flag

    I think that the entire market is missing grabbing Yamana at this level. Gold is gaining ground as nation after nation dilutes the value of their currencies.

    Another thing to consider is the fact that global demand for copper is rising and a shortage of over 500 metric tons is being predicted for 2015 and greater shortages after that as mine production lags demand. It is fairly obvious that Yamana will be in the catbird seat as it looks for partners for its high grade Agua Rica Copper/Gold/Silver/Molybdenum mine. $30 bison in copper, $6 billion in gold. The market is not doing the math, just following the herd.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • goldmanpillageandsack by goldmanpillageandsack Oct 20, 2014 7:03 AM Flag

    The next round of QE in Europe began today with the purchase of French mortgage backed securities by the ECB. There are approximately $3.3 trillion of these type of bonds available for the ECB to purchase and this represents the tip of another round of QE for Europe.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    BLS reports deflation:

    by goldmanpillageandsack Oct 10, 2014 9:30 AM
    goldmanpillageandsack goldmanpillageandsack Oct 11, 2014 5:45 AM Flag

    That is the basis of my argument for a turn in the sentiment toward mining companies. The Fed's hands are tied on raising interest rates. The Euro and a host of other currencies are competitively debasing themselves and the strong dollar is killing our exports and thus growth. The Fed's only tool is printing more dollars.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    COILED SPRING

    by bollingr_band Oct 10, 2014 5:51 PM
    goldmanpillageandsack goldmanpillageandsack Oct 11, 2014 5:23 AM Flag

    The broadening wealth of Asia is a provider of exceptional strength for the gold market. Since most of the physical trade is conducted in Asia, I see no reason to consider the Western prices as being the real price.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • goldmanpillageandsack by goldmanpillageandsack Oct 11, 2014 5:17 AM Flag

    Interesting headlines:

    Dennis Gartman has stated that the Euro will fail and he makes a good case that northern economies like Germany simply have different needs and objectives from weaker economies like France or tally. These differences will tear the Euro apart.

    I think that the Euro will fail eventually because you can not have a financial union without a political union.

    For gold stock investors in an undervalued market there are ramifications…

    At first blush, one can make the case that the dollar wold soar and gold would lose ground. But what about the rush to safety as investors try to diversify into "safe assets"? Surely gold would rocket up against the faltering Euro and investors would charge into the thinly traded "physical market". Also the pairs trade of gold/euro should have outsized returns. It is a debate worth having…

    Jack Lew warned against the "Currency War" where nation after nation is devaluing their currency against the dollar. Apparently, he recognizes the threat to American exporters. I think that his recognition of the threat to exporters is accurate. How would you like to be a US farmer competing against an Argentine exporter of soybeans who produced his crop with a currency that was just devalued by 40-50%.

    Bottom line is that US corporations are going to have a tough time competing if they are selling in weakening foreign currencies and then converting them to expensive dollars as they attempt to bring those profits home.

    Both of these issues are fundamentally good for gold. Financial instability of the Euro will push a squeeze on physical and the US will have to intervene against the dollar is we continue to lose access to export markets.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • goldmanpillageandsack by goldmanpillageandsack Oct 10, 2014 9:30 AM Flag

    Global deflation results in global stimulus. The BLS reported .5% lower import prices and .2% lower export prices this morning. Deflation begets more QE and the Fed, ECB, BOJ and all their competition will all do it.

    Expect higher gold prices right along with the stimulus packages...

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • goldmanpillageandsack goldmanpillageandsack Oct 10, 2014 9:07 AM Flag

    Mining is an energy intensive industry. Drilling, blasting, lifting, transporting, crushing, milling & grinding all require large amounts of energy. It's all about input costs and product pricing.

    I'd say we are heading toward the lower end of the $825 - $875 all in, sustaining costs because of the 15% drop in the price of oil.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • goldmanpillageandsack by goldmanpillageandsack Oct 10, 2014 8:24 AM Flag

    It is interesting that reporting on the German economic slowdown is ignoring the real reasons for the slowdown:

    1. Sanctions imposed by the US.
    2. Sanctions imposed bu the US.
    3. Sanctions imposed by the US.

    You get the idea...

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    ive said it many times

    by caseylm1 Oct 9, 2014 8:35 AM
    goldmanpillageandsack goldmanpillageandsack Oct 9, 2014 3:48 PM Flag

    I think that the vast majority of individuals on this board would appreciate some content from you on the gold market or Yamana's prospects as a company. Personal attacks are inappropriate.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Fed is leveraged 78 X 1

    by goldmanpillageandsack Oct 9, 2014 12:06 PM
    goldmanpillageandsack goldmanpillageandsack Oct 9, 2014 3:41 PM Flag

    In my reading I came across an interesting set of factoids. China holds $1.3 trillion in US Treasuries. The US Probably owns 8,000 tons of gold. China could buy approximately 8,000 tons of gold with just under $1.3 trillion dollars. I have not checked the math on this but China probably has somewhere near 4,000 tons by now and they could easily influence the gold market and support their currency in a dramatic way by backing the Yuan with more gold than the US has. Perhaps converting half of their US Treasuries slowly into gold could be part of their strategy?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Fed is leveraged 78 X 1

    by goldmanpillageandsack Oct 9, 2014 12:06 PM
    goldmanpillageandsack goldmanpillageandsack Oct 9, 2014 3:31 PM Flag

    Perhaps the critical issue here is that the Fed may be truly boxed into a corner.

    A dollar of new debt is creating less than .08 of GDP growth and soon will hit a tipping point where new debt creation only causes inflation (re: Japan.)

    If the Fed raises interest rates, the fact that most Treasuries are short dated and have to be rolled over will cause a sharp & unsupportable increase in borrowing costs for US debt.

    If the dollar appreciates too quickly our exporters will be crushed and no corporation will repatriate profits in local currencies because of the cost to convert to dollars.

    Thoughts on this subject line will be appreciated..

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • goldmanpillageandsack by goldmanpillageandsack Oct 9, 2014 12:06 PM Flag

    In reading a piece by Grant Williams on the Kondratieff long wave economic cycles, I learned that the Fed is leveraged 78x1. Lehman failed at around 40x1. Lets hope no one buying US Treasuries gets wind of that. They'll be switching to gold in a heartbeat.

    You can find it on Zero Hedge and link to his whole 42 page article. Fascinating perspectives on war, savings, debt creation and lots more.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • goldmanpillageandsack goldmanpillageandsack Oct 9, 2014 11:07 AM Flag

    It will be interesting to find out how much gold China actually holds. Given their desire to be included in the SDR currency by 2016, they will have to disclose their holdings and remove capital controls.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    ive said it many times

    by caseylm1 Oct 9, 2014 8:35 AM
    goldmanpillageandsack goldmanpillageandsack Oct 9, 2014 10:59 AM Flag

    Poor Chico, no contribution whatsoever to any of the boards he lurks on. Limp personal attacks is the best he can do. FYI, 36k is about 1/3 of what I have invested in Yamana. The leap trade from yesterday is up $2,400 as I write.

    Seriously Chico, did you check the time and sales report? If you bother to, you will see my executions. So - Gotcha!

    And so you understand the rationale: I am now able to sell slightly out of the money front month or weekly calls against those in the money 2017 leaps for income. Although I'll probably wait until after earnings on Oct 30th. Its easy money ;-)

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    ive said it many times

    by caseylm1 Oct 9, 2014 8:35 AM
    goldmanpillageandsack goldmanpillageandsack Oct 9, 2014 10:15 AM Flag

    Interesting. Auto sales/loans are now 35-40% subprime as well.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    5084 $6 calls just went thru

    by bollingr_band Oct 8, 2014 3:32 PM
    goldmanpillageandsack goldmanpillageandsack Oct 9, 2014 10:10 AM Flag

    If you are so smart Chico, why don't you pull a time and sales report? Verify before you bash someone that actually walks the walk and contributes. Or shall we just put you on ignore?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    ive said it many times

    by caseylm1 Oct 9, 2014 8:35 AM
    goldmanpillageandsack goldmanpillageandsack Oct 9, 2014 9:07 AM Flag

    Incremental growth in GDP per dollar of debt in the US was:

    $4.61 from 1946 thru 1952
    $0.63 from 1953 thru 1984
    $0.24 from 1985 thru 2000
    $0.08 from 2001 thru 2012

    You are correct that Japan is not gaining any growth in GDP for the debt they are creating to buy US Treasuries. They are creating inflation by destroying the value of their currency and causing import prices to rise.

    China is a horse of a different color and they can command growth through building any type of project they want. Power plants, pipelines, railroads, highway systems, entire cities can be built with the direction of excess capital or capital creation at their discretion.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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