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Yamana Gold, Inc. Message Board

goldmanpillageandsack 299 posts  |  Last Activity: Oct 21, 2014 9:04 AM Member since: Apr 27, 2010
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  • Reply to

    2 bucks

    by s52teve Sep 9, 2014 3:23 PM
    goldmanpillageandsack goldmanpillageandsack Sep 30, 2014 6:42 PM Flag

    I think that they had production up to that level at the very end of the quarter and it has been falling ever since. Now they have to drill at Cheal just to get it back up to the 2,000 level.

    Betcha they average under 2,000 boepd for the quarter! ;-)

    Got some more today at $1.53. Hope it's not this cheap for a big reason!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • goldmanpillageandsack by goldmanpillageandsack Sep 30, 2014 6:27 PM Flag

    This has been the most amazing selloff that I have ever experienced in a quality company with real earnings.

    Irrational is the best word for characterizing the selling of Yamana and the gold mining sector. Of course other things do come to mind… Like orchestrated manipulation of an asset class and an entire industry by a banking cartel that is above the law. LOBOR comes to mind as an example.

    Worldwide, currency, after currency, after currency, is getting hammered into the ground and being printed as if the rules of economics do not matter. Gold is rocketing up in those currencies. Outside the US it is holding value where few alternatives but the dollar exist.

    The US banking cartel has not only printed itself $4 trillion to spend as they wish, they have the computer algorithms to manipulate chosen asset prices lower so they can purchase them on the cheap with dollars while dollars have value. Other assets are being encumbered through debt and when it comes due the banks will be lying in wait to hold them hostage in order to re-finance their debt.

    How does a mining company get financing for an acquisition in this environment? Will they be able to at all? I wonder where the waves of this gutting of value will land and cause disruption. Certainly the mining equipment manufacturers and earthmoving equipment manufacturers will be affected. Drillers, manufacturers of bits and drilling equipment?

    Anyone have any good ideas on what specific companies with a niche in the mining industry would be good targets for the obvious shorting opportunities that are sure to follow the mining takedown?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Seller Of 20,000 Puts -- Big Bullish Flag!

    by southshoretrader Sep 30, 2014 10:03 AM
    goldmanpillageandsack goldmanpillageandsack Sep 30, 2014 2:21 PM Flag

    Correct you are! For every seller there has to be a buyer. The flip side is the buyer wants protection if the stock goes below $5.44 and was willing to pay for it!

    I think it is overdone to the downside but somebody at the Fed or it's banking cartel may have other ideas!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Puts

    by sfiaes Sep 29, 2014 4:25 PM
    goldmanpillageandsack goldmanpillageandsack Sep 30, 2014 11:26 AM Flag

    I was able to sell 20 Nov 6 puts for .35. They expire in 52 days and if the stock gets put to me my cost basis will be $5.65. Simply delicious!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Seller Of 20,000 Puts -- Big Bullish Flag!

    by southshoretrader Sep 30, 2014 10:03 AM
    goldmanpillageandsack goldmanpillageandsack Sep 30, 2014 11:07 AM Flag

    It is a WOW trade! I checked the open interest this morning and indeed these are new options as the trade exceeded the previous open interest and todays OI went up by about 20,000!

    Thankfully it is the last day of the quarter and the relentless selling of mining companies so they are not on fund managers books is coming to a close. Oversold is an understatement!

    I wonder what Soros is doing with his shares? He is a contrary investor who was adding to his position a few months ago. Those who are buying here at or near the bottom are going to be well rewarded in a s=couple of years.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Puts

    by sfiaes Sep 29, 2014 4:25 PM
    goldmanpillageandsack goldmanpillageandsack Sep 30, 2014 10:56 AM Flag

    The actual cost basis for stock if it is put to him would be $5.44 less transaction costs. Selling puts is my favorite way of buying stocks at a discount or collecting lower risk premiums. Hoping to sell some today! Not 20,000 of them though. That takes Mega Balls and a serious capital base.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • goldmanpillageandsack goldmanpillageandsack Sep 30, 2014 9:02 AM Flag

    China has aggressively eased housing mortgage requirements that were put in place to slow the market.

    Down payments have been reduced from 60% to 30% and first time buyers qualify for a 30% reduction in their mortgage interest rate. If all of an investor or families homes are paid off, they are now considered a first time buyer. Lending to developers has been restored by the PBOC.

    As a gauge of this programs success, watch copper prices closely. Copper is at $3.05 as of yesterday and should rise within the month if housing is responding in China. Golden Week is just around the corner and is traditionally a buying frenzy. Copper prices will be a good gauge of this programs success.

    This will also probably support steel, coal, concrete, glass producers and raw material exporting countries like Australia.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Two observations

    by ateteenkarats Sep 30, 2014 1:12 AM
    goldmanpillageandsack goldmanpillageandsack Sep 30, 2014 8:27 AM Flag

    Yamana's operating margins have been affected because they were/are in the process of building and commissioning three new mines and Yamana has higher than normal depletion, depreciation and amortization (DDA) due to the Osisko acquisition.

    The new mines: Pilar, Ernesto Pau-a-Pique and C1 Santa Luz, are now either completed and in production: (Ernesto Pau-a-Pique in May 2014) in commissioning: (Pilar) or placed in maintenance mode: (C1 Santa Luz) due to high carbon content in the ore and poor yields.

    Building new mines and commissioning them is the expensive part of the life cycle of a mine. All engineering, equipment, infrastructure, plant, materials and training have to be expensed before product is produced and cash-flow starts. Expect those costs to drop substantially in the third and fourth quarter (except DDA) as the new mines become fully operational.

    C1 Santa Luz production is being re-assessed and will be re-opened after a method is found to increase recoveries from the high carbon ore.

    Those are the negatives regarding margins…

    In digging for this I found that Yamana assumes copper prices of $3.20 per pound and that copper is now priced at $3.05, so there may be a modest impairment charge coming in the third or fourth quarter if prices do not recover.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    gold going down this morning

    by thoughtfulman Sep 30, 2014 5:58 AM
    goldmanpillageandsack goldmanpillageandsack Sep 30, 2014 7:28 AM Flag

    Ouch! It's the last day of the third quarter!

    The hammering began at about 5:30 et. Notice the orchestrated selling without regard to price at the thinly traded open of the London market?

    Classic manipulation!

    Probable washout!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    2 bucks

    by s52teve Sep 9, 2014 3:23 PM
    goldmanpillageandsack goldmanpillageandsack Sep 29, 2014 9:42 PM Flag

    If I fully triple down with purchases below $1.60 my cost average will be $2.80. Not great but if I count my original trade that doubled, I'm pretty close to even overall.

    I do not trust guidance at all given managements history. I also think that management is greedy and inexperienced in choosing drillers that can actually drill a deep well. They should hire qualified experts instead of floundering and wasting opportunity and cash.

    Thanks for your reporting on the company and good luck with your investment. What is your average cost?

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Insiders buying recently

    by johndotfoster Sep 29, 2014 4:04 PM
    goldmanpillageandsack goldmanpillageandsack Sep 29, 2014 8:48 PM Flag

    Good find!

    This board is getting better every day! Insiders buying is a good thing.

    The institutional selling amazes me and it will be interesting to find out who it was and why they liquidated. IMO this is likely to be completed with the end of the quarter. As time passes we should be able to find out what funds sold through reading the various disclosures. It seems to be politically motivated with the Fed as instigator as part of it's war against alternative currencies to it's dollar.

    Makes me wary of consolidation in the industry. Gruppo Mexico could start grabbing assets on the cheap.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • goldmanpillageandsack goldmanpillageandsack Sep 29, 2014 8:27 PM Flag

    I think that they will be turning in a great quarter with a small beat on earnings and solid cost containment results. I am looking for .08 to .09 in earnings with All In Sustaining Costs of $850 per ounce.

    The possible negatives are that we are hitting winter at Malartic and the rainy season in South America so while Q4 will be good, Q1 of 2015 will contain the normal seasonal slowness unless they can continue to pull ore from higher concentrations.

    Malartic will be accretive, but the real benefit will come when the dust settles on the Odyssey deposit and it can be added to the mineral resource base of the mine. Also Malartic's Kirkland Lake mining property is putting together its plan for the development of a central processing plant for the 8 million ounces of gold that have yet to be added to either Yamana or Agnico Eagles mineral resources.

    There are many potential "news items" that Yamana could release if they had a decent PR department. But self promotion has never been one of Yamana's strengths.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    2 bucks

    by s52teve Sep 9, 2014 3:23 PM
    goldmanpillageandsack goldmanpillageandsack Sep 29, 2014 7:23 PM Flag

    Stay Positive don t panick, this company needs it's few supporters. I give you a green arrow for your consistency in support of the company.

    You may recall that I was planning on buying when it went below $1.70? I finally bought some today because I had some dry powder to deploy from my biotech profits and the subsequent re-balance of my portfolio. Plus, I think the precious metals and commodities in general are undervalued.

    My buy is probably a bit premature and it will take me a few days to fully double down but I might as well do it with a company that has good resources but needs technical help in getting them out of the ground.

    As they say in OZ, "I hope it's not a Wombat on a dark road!"

    Sentiment: Buy

  • goldmanpillageandsack by goldmanpillageandsack Sep 29, 2014 6:04 PM Flag

    Followed by a conference call & webcast at 8:30am ET on Oct 30th.

    Consensus is .07 at the moment.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Puts

    by sfiaes Sep 29, 2014 4:25 PM
    goldmanpillageandsack goldmanpillageandsack Sep 29, 2014 5:52 PM Flag

    Wow! The seller got $0.56 for them! What a great trade!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • goldmanpillageandsack goldmanpillageandsack Sep 29, 2014 4:44 PM Flag

    Hmmmmm, did you say - Nail Guns? How many bankers did they lose to suicide/murder style terminations?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • goldmanpillageandsack goldmanpillageandsack Sep 29, 2014 2:50 PM Flag

    Thx, I'm happy to help counter the disinformation that seems to be ever-present on this board. The mindless bashers just become noise after a while. ;-)

    Money flow reversed to the upside at 12:40 or so and about $5 million dollars has come into Yamana since then. Both of my short term accumulation measures are now slightly into positive territory. Price action is not very strong though and bid strength remains weak. It's a slow day for me so I'm watching things closer than usual and hoping to identify bottoming patterns.

    NUGT has not confirmed any change in the downside bias toward gold yet.

    As long as you can stick the trade out for a year or two you will do well on Yamana. Collect your dividend and wait it out.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Currency War.

    by goldmanpillageandsack Sep 28, 2014 12:30 PM
    goldmanpillageandsack goldmanpillageandsack Sep 29, 2014 1:06 PM Flag

    Precious Metals = PM

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • goldmanpillageandsack goldmanpillageandsack Sep 29, 2014 12:57 PM Flag

    Good call, you may just be right.

    We finally got some bid strength here at 12:50. NUGT is also recovering a bit but not yet signaling anything positive for gold itself.

    We'll see.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • goldmanpillageandsack goldmanpillageandsack Sep 29, 2014 12:36 PM Flag

    Yamana's all in sustaining costs are $825 - 875 per ounce. At $1,200 gold they have a gross margin of over 26%. Yamana also conservatively values their reserves at an average near $900/oz so an asset writedown is not likely unless their 50 to 1 valuation ratio for silver forces something there, (Yamana has quite a bit of silver which is trading at a 69 to 1 ratio.)

    Earnings estimates are only .07 per share and with gold averaging close to $1,275 for Q3 and a quarterly increase in production of 20%, they should solidly beat that estimate.

    Going forward 3-6 months? Consolidations and mine closures at other higher cost companies will start if gold prices continue to fall and this will ultimately benefit Yamana.

    I'm sticking with my two year plan to ride this rock crusher through this deeply oversold condition.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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