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SPDR Gold Shares Message Board

goldmanpillageandsack 176 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 22, 2014 3:32 PM Member since: Apr 27, 2010
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  • goldmanpillageandsack by goldmanpillageandsack Aug 22, 2014 3:32 PM Flag

    Just read a story on Bloomberg View written by Mark Gilbert regarding gold backed bonds being issued by South Africa. It is a 2 billion rand offering ($188 million) of 5 year notes.

    Customers buy them with Krugerrands and they pay 0.5% interest and tie your investment to the price of gold and the South African Rand. Dividends are paid in Kruggerands at maturity and the payout is in Krugerrands or cash at the customers discretion.

    Have not seen anything like this for a while and it is worth noting because South Africa after all is the "S" in BRICS…

    Meanwhile, the Currency War goes un-noticed and without being priced into the markets.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Goldman: Can you explain please?

    by cthekingdom Aug 22, 2014 2:08 AM
    goldmanpillageandsack goldmanpillageandsack Aug 22, 2014 2:57 PM Flag

    Yes, the copper, silver, molybdenum, zinc plus a few rare earths all do sweeten the pot.

    As far as stories go - Yamana's 100% owned Agua Rica is the undiscovered valuation elephant in the room. With over $50 billion in ore, ready infrastructure and a new railroad being built to the mining district that it is going to be the heart of, I see strong appreciation coming over the next two years.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    The US Bond Dump -- Has Begun

    by southshoretrader Aug 21, 2014 1:08 PM
    goldmanpillageandsack goldmanpillageandsack Aug 22, 2014 12:40 PM Flag

    The yield curve is incredibly flat! Real interest rates remain negative.

    Stay the course.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Yamana Management Greed is the problem

    by howcomethisdoesnotwork Aug 22, 2014 10:52 AM
    goldmanpillageandsack goldmanpillageandsack Aug 22, 2014 11:37 AM Flag

    Marrone takes about $12.4 million per year in salary plus stock and option grants. He is in the top ten highest paid CEO's in Canada. In eleven years he has built an $8 billion dollar company. Is he worth it?

    I'd say that we all have to decide that for ourselves.

    One thing that I do not like is the unsold inventory that they had at the end of Q2 which if sold would have beat revenues in addition to beating EPS.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Goldman: Can you explain please?

    by cthekingdom Aug 22, 2014 2:08 AM
    goldmanpillageandsack goldmanpillageandsack Aug 22, 2014 11:23 AM Flag

    Sure… Yamana and Agnico Eagle combined forces to purchase Osisko and its flagship Malartic mine (Canada's largest gold mine) after a bidding war with Goldcorp.

    Originally, Yamana had made a bid to acquire 50% ownership of Osisko in early April. Then Goldcorp came in with a hostile bid and Yamana and Agnico Eagle partnered to buy most of Osisko's assets.

    Yamana's shares were taken to the woodshed on the deal and fell from $10.50 to nearly $7.00. Some think that the hostile Goldcorp bid for Osisko was motivated by Yamana's terminating the Agua Rica partnership in Argentina. This hostile bid inflated the purchase of Osisko by roughly 20% from Yamana's original offer plus it increased the residual royalty to Osisko to 5% from 2%.

    Since the deal is accretive on all metrics, I purchased Yamana again due to its extreme undervaluation.

    The deal closed on June 15th and earnings were affected because Yamana has issued 110 million new shares for the purchase and only was able to book 2 weeks of revenue from the Malartic mine in Q2…

    Hope this helps...

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Any respite in selling likely?

    by thoughtfulman Aug 21, 2014 11:57 AM
    goldmanpillageandsack goldmanpillageandsack Aug 22, 2014 12:05 AM Flag

    Pay attention! The shares were called away… Even better than selling at the market! History does not repeat, but it rhymes quite nicely!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Any respite in selling likely?

    by thoughtfulman Aug 21, 2014 11:57 AM
    goldmanpillageandsack goldmanpillageandsack Aug 21, 2014 4:41 PM Flag

    I'm a pretty optimistic investor and this is not the price action I was looking for, I thought the recovery from the Osisko purchase would be behind us. A few things to consider:

    Since we are in a Currency War and there is no end to the liquidity being pumped into the Banks for the purpose of asset price manipulation, we may be in for one of those periods where the market can remain irrational for a longer period than (leveraged) gold investors can remain solvent. If you are leveraged - get out!
    I have an excellent average in, and a two year timeline for a $20.00 exit, so I'll just continue to collect the dividend until we establish a valuation that reflects the underlying asset.

    It will be interesting to hear the September mineral exploration and reserve update that was mentioned by Marrone during the Q2 conference call.

    It is also worth considering that Kirchner will be ousted from Argentina next year. In spite of the popular anti-American sentiment that the non-re-default has generated, Argentinians are likely to elect a more moderate candidate. Either way, the default will be a non-issue after the first of the year given the non-negotion portion of the 2001 restructuring will expire and Argentina will no longer be blocked from making it's payments to other creditors.

    In the meantime, Yamana will be sensitive to the price of gold and Argentine default/leadership issues.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    CPI

    by man_from_midwest_60 Aug 19, 2014 8:59 AM
    goldmanpillageandsack goldmanpillageandsack Aug 19, 2014 12:44 PM Flag

    In reality, the dumbing down is the people who believe this nonsense and/or tolerate the reporting of such blatant falsehoods.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • goldmanpillageandsack goldmanpillageandsack Aug 15, 2014 12:04 AM Flag

    All part of the Currency War. It is interesting that Bank of NY Mellon is also the bank that is holding the interest payment that Argentina deposited to be paid to the legitimate holders of its debt. What do they know that we do not???

    FYI, Argentina has now signed nearly $15 billion in development loans in the last month with China. It would seem that the double standard of Judge Gricea has forced resource rich Argentina into the waiting hands of the BRICS. Part of those loans are going to build the railroad through the Catamarca province near Yamana's Agua Rica mine.

    It's all coming together...

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • goldmanpillageandsack goldmanpillageandsack Aug 14, 2014 11:49 PM Flag

    It remains one heck of a bargain.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • goldmanpillageandsack goldmanpillageandsack Aug 14, 2014 11:45 PM Flag

    It is option expiry tomorrow. Yamana is pinned just below the $9.00 strike.
    Greatest pain in action.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Nice upward trend...

    by goldmanpillageandsack Aug 7, 2014 10:36 PM
    goldmanpillageandsack goldmanpillageandsack Aug 9, 2014 12:30 PM Flag

    If we could pinpoint the breakout we'd be one or more of five things:

    1. Patient investors
    2. Insiders
    3. Lucky
    4. Educated and calculating investors
    5. Wealthy

    I'm going with the combination of 1, 4 and 5.

    What is evident here is a low price to net asset value in Yamana's mines, properties and cost structure. Combine that with high world tensions and a raging Currency War and you have a great set of circumstances for some serious appreciation over the next two years.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Nice upward trend...

    by goldmanpillageandsack Aug 7, 2014 10:36 PM
    goldmanpillageandsack goldmanpillageandsack Aug 8, 2014 6:35 AM Flag

    I think it should be moving higher on its own merit. In fact, I am somewhat concerned that Yamana will get bought out because its net asset value is rising far faster than the share price.

    Malartic production was not reflected in Q2 earrings. Exploration results and mineral upgrades are coming from El Penon and Cerro Morro in September plus most of the ma$$ive valuation increase of Agua Rica is not at all priced in. Realistically, Agua Rica has more than $50 billion dollars worth of Copper, Gold, Silver, Molybdenum plus assorted rare earths that should yield $5 - 10 billion in profits off of $15 - 25 billion in cash-flow (depending on the Copper/Moly partnership).

    Don't get me wrong, higher gold rices help because most people do not listen to conference calls or read the financial reports in detail. Plus our press coverage is dismal. Just this week we saw two lousy articles from TheStreet that did not even factor in Q2 results and quoted "old numbers" as their basis for poor performance of the stock.

    Perception is reality when it comes to share prices… Reality changes perception slowly at first, than quite quickly...

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • goldmanpillageandsack by goldmanpillageandsack Aug 7, 2014 10:36 PM Flag

    Things are looking much better with the trend line for the past three months. Since earnings, we have hit the upper Bollinger Band 5 out of 6 trading days and both accumulation and money flow are positive, I'm thinking we are gaining some momentum toward significantly higher share prices.

    We do need more volume to confirm this trend though...

    It also looks like we are going to test that pesky $1,320 price on gold again (even with a higher dollar). I'd like to see us just blow right through to $1,420! That would get things rolling...

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Great conference call!

    by goldmanpillageandsack Jul 31, 2014 10:44 PM
    goldmanpillageandsack goldmanpillageandsack Aug 6, 2014 6:37 PM Flag

    Staying on the Agua Rica theme, it is worth noting that Yamana's new hire Barrry Murphy was the "Vice President of Projects" in the copper division of Anglo American and he could be driving a deal between Anglo and Yamana for the Copper/Molybdenum side of the mine.

    I'm a little worried about a buyout at this point because Yamana is nowhere near its true valuation.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Great conference call!

    by goldmanpillageandsack Jul 31, 2014 10:44 PM
    goldmanpillageandsack goldmanpillageandsack Aug 6, 2014 12:25 AM Flag

    It looks like the relationship with Glencore/Xstrata is intact. Glencore makes a great partner because they need Molybdenum producing assets. Agua Rica has 750 million lbs of Molybdenum.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Beautiful Cup & Handle.........................

    by apl_mnstr Aug 3, 2014 8:20 PM
    goldmanpillageandsack goldmanpillageandsack Aug 4, 2014 9:58 AM Flag

    We need to hold above $9.00 before we can call it a breakout. With gold collared here just under $1,300 we are kind of stuck until market forces take it up. I'm having a hard time not buying more than I should at this amazing sub $10.00 level.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Great conference call!

    by goldmanpillageandsack Jul 31, 2014 10:44 PM
    goldmanpillageandsack goldmanpillageandsack Aug 3, 2014 10:32 PM Flag

    The relationship with Goldcorp certainly has changed given the recent "Hostile" bid it made for Osisko. It is worth noting that that occurred in close proximity to Yamana's refusal to renew the option for Goldcorp/Xstrata to stay in the Agua Rica agreement. I'd like to know more about that for sure…

    Whoever steps up is going to have some deep pockets to buy into this baby...

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Thru Upper Bollinger Band

    by goldmanpillageandsack Aug 1, 2014 3:48 PM
    goldmanpillageandsack goldmanpillageandsack Aug 2, 2014 10:43 PM Flag

    SVM is a disaster and amazingly symmetrical moves… could be either. They are both able to do the same thing at that level of trading volume.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • goldmanpillageandsack by goldmanpillageandsack Aug 1, 2014 3:48 PM Flag

    We popped right thru the upper Bollinger Band this morning on high volume and then settled back into a solid trading day. The stepping down looked a lot like a trading algorithm walking it down in symmetrical steps. Patience grasshoppers.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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