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Bob Evans Farms, Inc. Message Board

golfer18us 16 posts  |  Last Activity: 10 hours ago Member since: Jun 9, 2011
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  • Reply to

    Dead money

    by golfer18us May 26, 2015 4:04 PM
    golfer18us golfer18us 10 hours ago Flag

    Wow. I don't understand why folks have to resort to calling people names, etc when a poster has an opinion they may not agree with. To answer your question, I'm here because I see people post positive comments about this stock that are not supported by facts...that's all.

  • golfer18us by golfer18us May 26, 2015 4:04 PM Flag

    I've read the Zack's article indicating upside here but they keep burning cash at the operating level and the Feds are all over this industry. This could easily go the way of COCO. I realize some folks think they'll solve the problems by selling segments of their business but potential news is already priced into the stock. If you're going to speculate (which is what a new investment in this would be), isn't there something out there with a higher probability of success? This has been dead money for a very long time ....just look at the share price history.

  • golfer18us by golfer18us May 26, 2015 3:54 PM Flag

    It's been 5+ months and we're still without a CEO. Of course, it didn't help that the search may have started over the holidays but it still seems like they're having a tough time finding someone comfortable enough with either the controlling group or the company's prospects.

  • Reply to

    Daninfw: the latest on the M&A activity?

    by shorthighcoverlower May 20, 2015 10:31 PM
    golfer18us golfer18us May 26, 2015 3:47 PM Flag

    Finally....someone who understands that monetizing the owned real estate isn't 100% additive to the value! Good post.

  • Reply to

    BOD's

    by daninfw04 Apr 22, 2015 9:48 AM
    golfer18us golfer18us May 20, 2015 5:10 PM Flag

    Given their equity holdings, BODs will do just fine if they do whatever it takes to get stock price up versus trying to hold onto their annual retainer.

  • Reply to

    Buyout speculation

    by golfer18us May 20, 2015 9:52 AM
    golfer18us golfer18us May 20, 2015 5:07 PM Flag

    I don't disagree but I'd be surprised if it's at $14...that would be a huge premium versus trailing 3 month average (almost 50%?). Maybe in the right hands there's that much value to unlock. I don't have a dog in this fight one way or the other. Merely speculating based on publicly reported figures.

  • golfer18us golfer18us May 20, 2015 5:05 PM Flag

    again...there is NO buyout offer at this time. Merely rumors of interested PE firms. Nothing official.

  • Reply to

    Buyout speculation

    by golfer18us May 20, 2015 9:52 AM
    golfer18us golfer18us May 20, 2015 2:07 PM Flag

    141 of the 226 owned sites are collateral for Sr. Secured so not sure how those would be monetized. Plus, I'm not convinced there's much value in the owned real estate. If they did a sale leaseback, they'd generate proceeds obviously but they'd then be hit with rent expense which would lower EBITDA. In other words, it's not all upside.

  • golfer18us by golfer18us May 20, 2015 9:52 AM Flag

    Rumors of PE firms taking a look at PBY have spiked the stock price. Before we count our gains, you'll recall they've been down this path before and it didn't end well.

    In terms of "what could the price be?" if they're acquired, it may be worth looking at multiples for their competitors ...AAP and AZO. The current EV/EBITDA multiples for those firms are 9.8x and 12.1x, respectively. PBY is sitting at 10.5x ttm EBITDA. The "market clearing" price for the last 12 months would be $11.50/share which would put the multiple at ....conveniently....11.5x. If PBY is acquired, I would think the price would be in the $11.50-$12.00 range. Good luck.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Wow...yet another horrendous quarter. They burned through $7 million in cash. They only have $13 million on the books. Unless something dramatic happens, this feels like a Chapter 11 situation in 6-12 months.
    Things are not turning around....the Operating Loss got higher in the quarter and Operating Costs are running 108% of sales and that is before G&A which is now up to almost 15% of sales (up 3 points vs. same quarter a year ago). Bottom line....the net LOSS is 24% of Revenues. That's a LONG way to go before they simply breakeven. I love the posts that support this company but none of them are ever based in rational arguments. This company has NEVER made money and there's no real case for value (they don't own any real estate and you can see that they have to pay to get out of bad leases). If someone wants their real estate, they just have to wait for Cosi to close the store and go direct to the landlord.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Stock Down 31% YTD

    by dahnshaulis Apr 15, 2015 7:21 AM
    golfer18us golfer18us Apr 21, 2015 12:59 PM Flag

    At some point, "positives" have to go from being potential to being realized. This stock is down 83% in the past 5 years while the S&P 500 is up 77%. The regulatory environment is bad and will be for a very long time. They have no value in their leased real estate. They've sold almost everything of value and it hasn't moved the needle ...at all. It's dead money.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • I bet the retail investor must feel good about buying stock at $2.70/share while the company sold a bunch of stock for $2.16/share to a few funds. Here's the release:

    Boston, MA - April 13, 2015 - Così, Inc. (COSI), the fast casual restaurant company, today announced that it has closed on a stock purchase transaction with Trishield Capital Management LLC, Janus Capital Management, LLC, Goose Hill Capital LLC, Bigger Capital Fund, LP, Ken Vaughan, and one other firm. These investors have purchased an aggregate of 7,160,766 shares of the Company`s common stock, par value $.01 per share, at a purchase price of $2.16 per share. Gross proceeds to the Company in the amount of $15,467,255 will be used to pay indebtedness of the Company and for general corporate purposes. The transaction closed on April 10, 2015.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    march quarter will be awful....

    by svenkarls1 Mar 28, 2015 11:57 AM
    golfer18us golfer18us Apr 3, 2015 11:18 AM Flag

    I think the folks who are "negative" are looking at the fact that this chain has NEVER posted a profit in its entire history and somehow they keep finding a way to raise money to stay afloat. If you dig in and look at their economics, you'll see that they don't even have a positive gross margin. While G&A is an area of opportunity, it could be zero and this company would not be a good investment. They have closed stores every year for a long time and they have had negative cash flow (aside from propping it up with selling rights, etc). It's not a sustainable proposition. I see no reason for anyone to invest money in this concept but there are some who believe it will turnaround. I'm not sure what facts they base their optimism on.

  • Having watched this stock for many years, I'm amazed at the number of lives it's been granted by folks who willingly give them their hard-earned money. Once again, another year has come and gone and it was a disaster...again. Net store count down. Revenues...down. Margins ...down. All that led to RECORD operating losses. Even if you back out the presumably one-time charges to move the HQ and terminate some leases (which I bet they'll have to do more of in this fiscal year), you still get RECORD losses and a HUGE cash burn. They are so far from simply breakeven that no reasonable assumption can be made that they'll get there any time soon. Luckily for them, they found plenty of people to buy more common so they are sitting on about 18 months of cash at the present burn rate. This will not survive long term and nobody will be looking to buy it if that's one of your exit strategies.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • golfer18us golfer18us Mar 5, 2015 11:27 AM Flag

    Looks like most people agree ....stock is down almost 60% from the IPO. CFO departure can't be a good sign.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    BOBE is way over price. At best a $25 stock

    by getintoh20 Mar 3, 2015 5:46 PM
    golfer18us golfer18us Mar 4, 2015 10:19 AM Flag

    I concur with your conclusion. What makes BOBE even worse to me is the fact that their margins, and returns, stink yet they own almost every one of their sites. The fact that they don't pay rent and still have #$%$ margins is amazing. If they ever do sell their real estate and end up bearing a real rent, we'll see margins go down 5-8 pts.

    Sentiment: Sell

BOBE
45.940.00(0.00%)Jun 2 4:00 PMEDT