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Bob Evans Farms, Inc. Message Board

golfer18us 15 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 29, 2015 6:08 PM Member since: Jun 9, 2011
  • Reply to

    Get "The Profit" guy

    by suitcase8858 Jul 13, 2015 4:20 PM
    golfer18us golfer18us Jul 29, 2015 6:08 PM Flag

    You might want to wait until you see the quarterly numbers before you commit any of your hard earned money to this. They've never made money and certainly won't next quarter. This is going to be a slowly melting ice cube and likely to run out of cash in the next 12 months unless they find some other source of funding.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    another $4-$5 million quarterly loss is coming..

    by svenkarls1 Jul 25, 2015 12:47 PM
    golfer18us golfer18us Jul 28, 2015 9:05 AM Flag

    agreed....at the end of the last fiscal year, they had $52 million in remaining lease obligations and all the debt comes due in 2017 I believe. They'll burn probably half the cash they had on the books at the end of the March quarter. I don't see how they get through the next 12 months without filing.

  • Reply to

    Positive cash flows in September quarter

    by ls99ls Jun 28, 2015 7:34 AM
    golfer18us golfer18us Jul 9, 2015 9:58 AM Flag

    Highly unlikely given the sales trends and the poor margins they've had. They've consistently lost $4MM and, depending on what they do to manage working capital, that has translated into a bunch of cash being burned.

    While I don't like saying this, I suspect this will be filing for Chapter 11 protection at the end of this year unless they have another injection of financing. They have $13MM in cash now and, at recent burn rates, that won't last much longer. Maybe his efforts to turn around sales will kick in but a lot of positive things would have to happen on the cost side for those incremental sales to turn this cash positive. Time will tell.

  • Reply to

    Making money

    by rtycrris Apr 16, 2015 3:29 PM
    golfer18us golfer18us Jun 3, 2015 4:54 PM Flag

    Looks like you were wrong.

  • Reply to

    Dead money

    by golfer18us May 26, 2015 4:04 PM
    golfer18us golfer18us Jun 3, 2015 4:49 PM Flag

    Thanks. When folks revert to name calling, bullying, etc, they clearly have run out of logical responses to make and respond as if they're in 3rd grade. I see no fundamentals that would give a true investor a reason to make a long term investment in this equity.

  • Reply to

    Dead money

    by golfer18us May 26, 2015 4:04 PM
    golfer18us golfer18us Jun 2, 2015 11:31 AM Flag

    Wow. I don't understand why folks have to resort to calling people names, etc when a poster has an opinion they may not agree with. To answer your question, I'm here because I see people post positive comments about this stock that are not supported by facts...that's all.

  • golfer18us by golfer18us May 26, 2015 4:04 PM Flag

    I've read the Zack's article indicating upside here but they keep burning cash at the operating level and the Feds are all over this industry. This could easily go the way of COCO. I realize some folks think they'll solve the problems by selling segments of their business but potential news is already priced into the stock. If you're going to speculate (which is what a new investment in this would be), isn't there something out there with a higher probability of success? This has been dead money for a very long time ....just look at the share price history.

  • golfer18us by golfer18us May 26, 2015 3:54 PM Flag

    It's been 5+ months and we're still without a CEO. Of course, it didn't help that the search may have started over the holidays but it still seems like they're having a tough time finding someone comfortable enough with either the controlling group or the company's prospects.

  • Reply to

    Daninfw: the latest on the M&A activity?

    by shorthighcoverlower May 20, 2015 10:31 PM
    golfer18us golfer18us May 26, 2015 3:47 PM Flag

    Finally....someone who understands that monetizing the owned real estate isn't 100% additive to the value! Good post.

  • Reply to

    BOD's

    by daninfw04 Apr 22, 2015 9:48 AM
    golfer18us golfer18us May 20, 2015 5:10 PM Flag

    Given their equity holdings, BODs will do just fine if they do whatever it takes to get stock price up versus trying to hold onto their annual retainer.

  • Reply to

    Buyout speculation

    by golfer18us May 20, 2015 9:52 AM
    golfer18us golfer18us May 20, 2015 5:07 PM Flag

    I don't disagree but I'd be surprised if it's at $14...that would be a huge premium versus trailing 3 month average (almost 50%?). Maybe in the right hands there's that much value to unlock. I don't have a dog in this fight one way or the other. Merely speculating based on publicly reported figures.

  • golfer18us golfer18us May 20, 2015 5:05 PM Flag

    again...there is NO buyout offer at this time. Merely rumors of interested PE firms. Nothing official.

  • Reply to

    Buyout speculation

    by golfer18us May 20, 2015 9:52 AM
    golfer18us golfer18us May 20, 2015 2:07 PM Flag

    141 of the 226 owned sites are collateral for Sr. Secured so not sure how those would be monetized. Plus, I'm not convinced there's much value in the owned real estate. If they did a sale leaseback, they'd generate proceeds obviously but they'd then be hit with rent expense which would lower EBITDA. In other words, it's not all upside.

  • golfer18us by golfer18us May 20, 2015 9:52 AM Flag

    Rumors of PE firms taking a look at PBY have spiked the stock price. Before we count our gains, you'll recall they've been down this path before and it didn't end well.

    In terms of "what could the price be?" if they're acquired, it may be worth looking at multiples for their competitors ...AAP and AZO. The current EV/EBITDA multiples for those firms are 9.8x and 12.1x, respectively. PBY is sitting at 10.5x ttm EBITDA. The "market clearing" price for the last 12 months would be $11.50/share which would put the multiple at ....conveniently....11.5x. If PBY is acquired, I would think the price would be in the $11.50-$12.00 range. Good luck.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Wow...yet another horrendous quarter. They burned through $7 million in cash. They only have $13 million on the books. Unless something dramatic happens, this feels like a Chapter 11 situation in 6-12 months.
    Things are not turning around....the Operating Loss got higher in the quarter and Operating Costs are running 108% of sales and that is before G&A which is now up to almost 15% of sales (up 3 points vs. same quarter a year ago). Bottom line....the net LOSS is 24% of Revenues. That's a LONG way to go before they simply breakeven. I love the posts that support this company but none of them are ever based in rational arguments. This company has NEVER made money and there's no real case for value (they don't own any real estate and you can see that they have to pay to get out of bad leases). If someone wants their real estate, they just have to wait for Cosi to close the store and go direct to the landlord.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

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