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Bob Evans Farms, Inc. Message Board

golfer18us 12 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 22, 2015 10:50 AM Member since: Jun 9, 2011
  • Reply to

    Howard Schultz founder of Starbucks

    by robertsmike472 Jan 21, 2015 4:20 PM
    golfer18us golfer18us Jan 22, 2015 10:50 AM Flag

    Not sure that's true any longer once PBPB went public. As an investor in Maveron, he as part of the initial investment but I believe they exited at the IPO. Here's a link to their "notable exits"

  • golfer18us golfer18us Jan 6, 2015 2:38 PM Flag

    it's been in the Chicago area for a very long time and has had limited success. This could easily become the next Cosi (and that's not a compliment)

  • Here's a firm that has a forward P/E and PEG ratio of roughly twice Starbucks. Sure, it's a different concept but I think it's an indicator that PBPB is richly valued. They've raised a bunch of money in the IPO (oh, shareholders who hung on saw that IPO price drop 60% to today's value) so they have time to excite people by talking about all the stores they'll open. Well, at some point, the stores have to generate profits that lead to returns ....and so far, they aren't. YTD, same-store sales are down and margins are being squeezed...and ROE is negative. Don't get fooled by the allure of potential increases in store counts....the roadside is littered with failed concepts and this could be one.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    $100 stock

    by robertsmike472 Dec 22, 2014 4:20 PM
    golfer18us golfer18us Dec 30, 2014 2:34 PM Flag

    what growth? This stock is over-valued with a forward P/E of 49 and a PEG ratio of 2.52. The concept is not differentiated enough. This could be another Cosi in the making.....another Chicago concept that has been around a long time but has never gone very far. PBPB has a much better model but the reality is that it has sunk 60% from the IPO for very good reasons....the world is filled with plenty of sandwich options.

  • Reply to

    enjoy another 2-3 years of "re-building"...hahah

    by wassayassa Dec 15, 2014 10:55 AM
    golfer18us golfer18us Dec 19, 2014 3:01 PM Flag

    gee....not sure they can even hang on for 2-3 years. I share your conclusion that they'll have large cash losses for the next several quarters at least. It's a Zombie brand at this point.

  • Reply to

    Should I rush to eat at COSI?

    by suitcase8858 Dec 19, 2014 9:58 AM
    golfer18us golfer18us Dec 19, 2014 2:59 PM Flag

    you're not serious, are you? Frankly, there aren't many restaurants in the world that you should be worried will close before you eat there. It's not that dramatic, or life-altering, an experience. However, not to worry....they will hang on for probably a few more quarters.

  • golfer18us by golfer18us Dec 15, 2014 12:10 PM Flag

    Stock is up on the news that the CEO is gone. This should clear the way for some much needed improvements.....G&A too high and the prepared food business should be spun off. He got in the way of all of that and that's why the activists took control and pushed him out.

  • golfer18us golfer18us Nov 24, 2014 6:16 PM Flag

    sure it does.....there's no logical financial reason why this stock would hit close to $4. Posts like these should be banned because it's a shameless attempt to sell a newsletter. I bet this post is on a ton of other message boards where that company's name is exchanged for Cosi.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • golfer18us golfer18us Nov 17, 2014 9:58 AM Flag

    No, I'm not short this stock and I'm not upset....merely looking at the numbers versus getting caught up in guidance. Never had a position of any kind in the stock. The "math" associated with their corporate store P&L doesn't work...has never worked. They are so far from covering overhead that it's likely they'll continue to lose money for the foreseeable future. To your point, time will tell.

  • Reply to

    cosi is a DISASTER...

    by wassayassa Nov 14, 2014 4:41 PM
    golfer18us golfer18us Nov 17, 2014 9:53 AM Flag

    At a high level, I agree with you that Cosi's model is extremely flawed (negative Gross Margins on company ops) but you don't need to resort to slamming the employees at the store level and denigrating their IQ with derogatory slang. It detracts from your messages.

    The reality is that even if their employees were the best & brightest of the industry, the overall model is not capable of generating returns on capital....never has. I doubt the new CEO will turn it around enough to generate positive cash flow. It's only a matter of time.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • golfer18us golfer18us Nov 14, 2014 1:21 PM Flag

    Despite positive comps, the gross margin on company owned business was negative for the quarter and worse than prior quarter. Would have thought things improved especially with the closures of the worst sites. Q4 is usually a down quarter due to seasonality so unless they really grow sales AND improve Gross Margins, they're going to burn another 3+ million in cash. This is a melting ice cube that has seduced investors for years. I would not hold this stock. Plenty of other better stories to invest in.

  • You've seen the latest quarterly results and despite the positive spin, things are not looking good (shocking). For the quarter, the gross margin on company stores is actually negative. It's slightly positive but that's only because of the franchise royalty income that hits the P&L. If you look at the gross margin for company stores in the prior quarter, it actually got worse even though they close a bunch of losers and had less negative comps. Gross margin is a great measure of a concept's viability and it should be much higher. Their G&A is running $2.5-3 million/quarter so they've got a long way to go before they cover overhead and stop bleeding cash.

    Turning to cash, things are likely to be really bad after the report the year-end figures. Why? Well, Q4 is usually worse than Q3 from a seasonality perspective so I expect the losses to be in the $4-5 million range. They only have $6 million of cash at the end of Q3. Even adjusting for non-cash expenses like depreciation, they could be looking at a cash balance come 12/31/14 of $1-2 million unless they stretch payables or get another infusion (hard to believe they could go to that well one more saved them this quarter).

    If you're long on this stock, I don't understand the rationale. The company has never made money and has a flawed business model (as seen by the negative gross margin). Some of you hold out hope that a larger player would acquire them. There's no plausible case as to why anyone would want them. This is a zombie brand.

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