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Bob Evans Farms, Inc. Message Board

golfer18us 10 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 15, 2014 12:10 PM Member since: Jun 9, 2011
  • golfer18us by golfer18us Dec 15, 2014 12:10 PM Flag

    Stock is up on the news that the CEO is gone. This should clear the way for some much needed improvements.....G&A too high and the prepared food business should be spun off. He got in the way of all of that and that's why the activists took control and pushed him out.

  • golfer18us golfer18us Nov 24, 2014 6:16 PM Flag

    sure it does.....there's no logical financial reason why this stock would hit close to $4. Posts like these should be banned because it's a shameless attempt to sell a newsletter. I bet this post is on a ton of other message boards where that company's name is exchanged for Cosi.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • golfer18us golfer18us Nov 17, 2014 9:58 AM Flag

    No, I'm not short this stock and I'm not upset....merely looking at the numbers versus getting caught up in guidance. Never had a position of any kind in the stock. The "math" associated with their corporate store P&L doesn't work...has never worked. They are so far from covering overhead that it's likely they'll continue to lose money for the foreseeable future. To your point, time will tell.

  • Reply to

    cosi is a DISASTER...

    by wassayassa Nov 14, 2014 4:41 PM
    golfer18us golfer18us Nov 17, 2014 9:53 AM Flag

    At a high level, I agree with you that Cosi's model is extremely flawed (negative Gross Margins on company ops) but you don't need to resort to slamming the employees at the store level and denigrating their IQ with derogatory slang. It detracts from your messages.

    The reality is that even if their employees were the best & brightest of the industry, the overall model is not capable of generating returns on capital....never has. I doubt the new CEO will turn it around enough to generate positive cash flow. It's only a matter of time.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • golfer18us golfer18us Nov 14, 2014 1:21 PM Flag

    Despite positive comps, the gross margin on company owned business was negative for the quarter and worse than prior quarter. Would have thought things improved especially with the closures of the worst sites. Q4 is usually a down quarter due to seasonality so unless they really grow sales AND improve Gross Margins, they're going to burn another 3+ million in cash. This is a melting ice cube that has seduced investors for years. I would not hold this stock. Plenty of other better stories to invest in.

  • You've seen the latest quarterly results and despite the positive spin, things are not looking good (shocking). For the quarter, the gross margin on company stores is actually negative. It's slightly positive but that's only because of the franchise royalty income that hits the P&L. If you look at the gross margin for company stores in the prior quarter, it actually got worse even though they close a bunch of losers and had less negative comps. Gross margin is a great measure of a concept's viability and it should be much higher. Their G&A is running $2.5-3 million/quarter so they've got a long way to go before they cover overhead and stop bleeding cash.

    Turning to cash, things are likely to be really bad after the report the year-end figures. Why? Well, Q4 is usually worse than Q3 from a seasonality perspective so I expect the losses to be in the $4-5 million range. They only have $6 million of cash at the end of Q3. Even adjusting for non-cash expenses like depreciation, they could be looking at a cash balance come 12/31/14 of $1-2 million unless they stretch payables or get another infusion (hard to believe they could go to that well one more time...it saved them this quarter).

    If you're long on this stock, I don't understand the rationale. The company has never made money and has a flawed business model (as seen by the negative gross margin). Some of you hold out hope that a larger player would acquire them. There's no plausible case as to why anyone would want them. This is a zombie brand.

  • golfer18us by golfer18us Oct 16, 2014 5:32 PM Flag

    The press release is likely to be interpreted as "good news" by some....the negative comps continue but they appear to be getting less negative. Recall that they are lapping a (4.8%) prior quarter so being negative again ain't so impressive. Also, comps don't pay the bills so we're going to need to wait until they release financials to see the total dollar revenue. I suspect they've closed a few sites and those sites probably had bad comps. Regardless, unless they've dramatically improved their gross margins, they are unlikely to post a profit.

  • Reply to

    Cosi $10

    by cosi.coffee Aug 15, 2014 6:32 PM
    golfer18us golfer18us Oct 16, 2014 5:29 PM Flag

    Earlier this month he said it's gonna be $12 by March. Two words...No way. Wait...maybe he's saying the market cap will be $12, not the per share price

  • golfer18us golfer18us Oct 15, 2014 2:40 PM Flag

    That's insane. Neither need or want this concept. It's negative rounding error to both and there's no upside. Why would anyone pay that amount of money for a concept that has NEVER made a dime and burns cash? There's no value in the real estate (none is owned). This is just crazy talk but if you really believe it, you should mortgage the house and buy as much as you can.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • golfer18us golfer18us Sep 29, 2014 12:35 PM Flag

    why wouldn't you sell your shares in BAGL at the acquisition price? This deal is going to happen and the company will go private. You don't really have a practical choice to hold them past the closing date of the deal.

BOBE
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