Squueeeeeze....
Bizzarro continues. OR we're the only game in town.
If we move up...
1. Volume is going to suck
2. Volatility will drop
3. Combine 1 and 2 and option IV will drop too and kill premiums
If we plummet..
1. Volume will SOAR.. Vol will spike hard..!
2. Puts will pay off huge...
3. Great entry points await..
So, dont buy, please just don't buy. For 4 weeks...
Obviously a reaction to US markets today..
But if everyone's printing, why even bother to announce economic reports..? Just hit the buy button..
Similar to some parents whose mom and dad lived thru the depression as kids. Life lessons learned there..
And that was April 18-19, and it started a 43 point S&P move upward from the close of the 2nd day (April 19th)
Just saying, nothing more... the candles can obviously be temperamental...
agreed...
futures are flat. Serious, don't u have anything better to do..?
Oh well, 73.89 gone, sold off back to original close...
Agreed. If the market moves up thru 1600 and holds, would could see a real quick move to 1630 on short covering alone, same with Depot....
Hd had a subtle pop in afterhours, they have a 22% short interest and i think that some queasy shorts smell one squeeze coming their way....
Greg, it's a couple things. I think shorting Depot is a proxy that the Xhb has run its course and/or the overall markets have topped out...
I know it's easy to say, but WHY short ANY stock that is in the midst of buying back their shares..? I used to be a Store Manager for them and i know that they've made a conscious effort to reduce hourly wages, actually, continually ongoing, to cut costs like all other corp's are doing.
However, notice the after hours pop today to 73.89..? That could be some queasy shorts covering because this market IS going up from here. No doubt. There's nowhere else to put your money to work, other countries and CB's are starting to buy US equities because of the currency easing environment. We could see 75-80 very quickly, notice how HD moved up 10% over a couple weeks earlier in the year after a selloff in late February...
Personally, i believe the markets have already priced in a #$%$ jobs number tomorrow and are ready to buy. You could tell by todays S&P close, no selling. That speaks volumes as to sentiment. The Fed said yesterday they would consider INCREASING their purchases if warranted, which will put a floor in this market...
ONE MORE THING. How many people are short banking on a 'sell in may' scenario..? Everyone with stops set from 1602-1607. What do you think will hapen when they all begin to cover..?? YEAH
However, we ARE on the way to one hell of a bubble and it is going to be BRUTAL when it goes..
Why don't we make a list of all the companies who missed top line numbers AND guided down for the balance of 2013. The list would be as long as your arm..
And we're at 1597. All time highs. And going higher..
Not only is EVERY Central Bank printing, they are now BUYING equities in some cases. Like Israel buying US equities. And if they are, there's certainly others...
Think about it. Israel could've quietly gone about taking positions in the US markets but they ANNOUNCED, they wanted other countries to know. So they might do the same thing...
Personally, i think next week is a big up week for all indexes. No news, bad stuff out of the way, nowhere else to put your money, etc, etc...
We'll have had a bad Adp, bad jobs no., imploding global pmi's, and yet we're HIGHER.
Kris, i agree. Deflation is coming our way and there's nothing the Fed can do about it. Other than destroy our currency, of course. Note how the Bernack appears to be slowly sneaking out of Dodge, just get me the heck out of this mess.
The whole world knows the jobs number is gonna suck tomorrow, they're buying the market today with that knowledge.
We may hit 1599'ish today and blow thru 1600 tomorrow. Bad numbers mean the Feds still got our back, right or wrong.
The 800 pound gorilla in the room that the Fed isn't really talking about is the fear of deflation, inflation has subsided over the last 12 months and all you have to do is look at Japan to see that's a place you don't want to go to, so print away..
lol.
What i don't get is that option volume was heavy today compared to past sessions and yet IV remained depressed. Now, i get that overall option and trading volume in the markets is low due to FOMC, Adp and Jobs number friday but something is up and it stinks...
just a massive iv collapse today, can't figure it out. We have option volume comparable to past trading days, i'm in a 49/52.50 strangle and iv on the calls has dropped 20%, fairly similar on the puts. Can't figure it out, not seeing anything like it in any other of my option positions...
The fact is, the Fed's more worried about deflation, not runaway inflation. Just look at Japan the last 20 years after their financial bubble popped, and look at Europe in total implosion. Markets have been told that the Fed will be in the game thru 2014, and now even China will be expected to ease with tonite's numbers..look at the Aussie dollar moving up.
There's simply nowhere else to put capital to work, no reason to sell just because it's expected. Think market will hold here, already had our 2% selloff, price in bad jobs number and head to 1630+, short term... imo.