You would have figured given how weak economies are, the Greeks and EU would have gotten a deal done realizing the incredible fallout that is now coming. Most likely we get a market crash that plunges the US into recession. And it didn't even need to happen! Nothing can be done to avoid it now however.
margin call... sold too many. In % terms they went up tremendously.
I hear what you're saying I think. Personally I would have assumed a 35% single day rise in this meant the Greek worst case was being priced in, but it does look like I was wrong as it just kept coming all week. I read on Bloomberg that the vote is essentially meaningless as weeks of negotiations will be coming no matter which way they vote, but again I agree with you this was running higher all week with a boundless energy, so it sure does look like it has legs.
by the way it really shows how cruel this "game" can be. I just needed to make it until July 17 without big spike in UVXY but, bang. I am fairly certain UVXY is going to hit the 65 price soon but not certain enough to throw more money at it.
I tend to agree with you that the Greece situation should not be enough to make UVXY rise but right now it is sort of feeding off itself.
1K shares no big deal- I shorted UVXY calls naked, had to cover on the spike this week- lost half my capital. if UVXY had gone to 80 and I had held, would have been a total loss. Just couldn't take that kind of risk. I think probably TVIX will be up about 50% in the next 2 weeks or so. It doesn't make a lot of sense, since as you said the Greek stuff should be baked in the cake already, but that hasn't stopped the rise for even a second.
I would guess up 20% Monday. It simply won't drop at this time.
The largest ever move in the VIX futures in a day was 20% in 2011. I am having a hard time seeing a 50% move in one day. Having said that, I agree there is no way this drops for a long time which is why I had to get out. I could easily see this hitting 50, 60, 80, 100, etc in the next month. Maybe 200, who knows.
I had to get out already. Do you really think this could double in a day, that is 50% move in VIX futures which has never happened. Thanks
I don't understand it. I mean, it already moved from 31 to 48 on the Greece news. What exactly would get done over there this weekend that would spike UVXY even more? I had a heck of a rough week, but am trying to learn from it- so if anyone could help me out (without making fun of me or being rude would be awesome), I would love to understand why Greece isn't already priced into UVXY.
Kind of how things have been going lately, after a 50% loss it feels like the whole world is against me, ha.
Thanks, good luck to you as well- I finally got it- it's not just naked calls you should not short, but the underlying stock IMO. Or if you do short the actual underlying, best to do just a tiny percentage of your portfolio in case we get a disaster. And if you do a tiny percentage, it's hardly worth bothering I guess. So I guess the solution like you guys have said is just buy puts on the spikes. I actually consider myself lucky to only lose half my money- you can make it back with a double... if you lose 90% or god forbid 100% it's good night, Gracie.
Also learned today- you cannot play the game scared. And I mean, when I aw UVXY tack on 7 bucks in a few hours, I was flat out terrified.
Didn't think I would be in trouble until UVXY hit 60 since I shorted calls that were way out of the money- well folks these things can move a heck of a lot more than you think. It's really stupid to ever do it, but I did it regardless. Now that I liquidated (near the high for the day of UVXY btw) I'm sure it will start back lower for everyone. Couldn't take the chance though if this went to $55 I might have lost my entire account. There's a lot of people I know doing the same kind of thing I did so I bet a lot of people learned the same lesson...
Greece votes to stay in EU? What are you saying will happen to UVXY next week?
jesus. Does this ever stop rising? $5 in 2 hours?!?!!?
If they went to 20, UVXY should go up 30%, or 55. I guess if they went to 21 it would hit 60.
Thank you. Will never do it again, they jerk the bid ask so wide on the calls when you sell them. I just want it to stay under 60 until Friday, July 17. Then if it wants it can go to 75 on Monday lol.
If UVXY hits 60 in the next 16 days I am ruined. The cushion got as low as $18 today before hitting $22 at the close, after hours that POS is perking up. Running the gauntlet, just need to make it through Monday under 50 and I think it will hold under 60 because jobs report and Greece will be out of the way.