THey expire Friday. If I get out I certainly won't do it again. My gut says surely they won't get VXX to 56 this week?!?!?!
I need more than luck, the financial media is out fanning the fires of fear this weekend and I think Wall Street may ramp the VIX big time.
What do you mean by currencies? Where are you seeing updated quotes? Are they screaming risk off or just not screaming risk on. I figure for VXX not to hit 56 this week the S&P needs to lose less than 1%. Do you think there is even a remote chance the VIX stays at 22 or lower this week?
It is my hope VXX will not get to 56 this coming week. I think that is an ambitious move for 5 days. We shall see. The last few times the spot has spiked to 22 or whatever the futures have not made it to 20. I would say it's more likely the futures only go up 10% next week putting VXX at 53.
Shorted out of money calls. They are 68 strike price and expire Friday. If VXX hits 56 before Friday I will get a margin call and have to eat the loss. I am hopeful VXX does not make it past 52.
Thanks man. I am encouraged by the news today. I am thinking it is now not likely VXX will make it to 56 by Friday, since Ukraine is calmer and Fed news should already be anticipated.
Just can't have it hit 56 before Friday close. Things seem calmer.
in 2011. I do not think Crimea is as bad as 2011 crisis so I think VXX will not go up 40% this week or 20% Monday.
Agree with you there. I'm just wondering why all of a sudden on a relatively modest drop in the S&P we had such a big VIX spike. To put it in perspective the VIX went up about the same percentage it went up in Feb when the S&P was down 40 plus points.
I fully understand why it's a problem for Russia and expect their stock market to fall another 40, 50, or even 60%. Why is it such a disaster for US stocks, and why so much panic? Feels artificial to me.
It really has nothing to do with US markets, in the absence of indication that idiot Putin is going for other regions. Further, this referendum was known about well in advance of Friday. So why did the VIX have such a huge move Friday?
Not a prayer, the best I am hoping for is the VIX stays under 25 this week. I think this is possible as long as Putin doesn't do anything drastic.
Short VXX calls and in real trouble if VXX hits 56 early in the week and virtually ruined if it hits 60. I estimate VXX usually rises about half as much as spot VIX in a given week, so I need the VIX to not go past 25 next week. It has not been past 25 in several years so the question is how crazy is Putin and how bad will MOnday be. Honestly I will liquidate everything and take the loss Monday anyway, so I am really just hoping for a VXX open under 55 if that's even possible Monday.
21 is a 17% rise. Usually VXX rises half as much, so it would only go up 8%. I would be ecstatic if VXX only goes up 8% next week but the media is out creating major panic over the Crimea.
Russia's stock market may just go to 0 I guess. Not sure why US markets would crash this week about Crimea since we're not going to be directly involved, but it seems like that's the angle right now.
I am hoping for VXX to open up less than 10% Monday. I believe it has only opened more than 10% higher 3 times ever.
I was hoping Crimea was already priced in by Friday 10% move in VIX but the media is out there fanning the flames of panic this weekend and I am terrified Wall Street is going to use this to crush the market. Last week we only dropped 2% and the VIX went up 30%, I am dreading Sunday futures opening. My god, the panic they are stirring on the news sites.
No good luck to UVXY longs you mean. I need VXX to stay under 56 until Friday, or am I completely screwed. I have worked myself into a panic reading the news today thinking VXX could spike to 60 Monday morning (and UVXY would be at 130). Then I remember VXX has never gone up more than 20% in a day and would only have been up 15% the day when markets opened after 9/11. And I hope that somehow maybe VXX is only up another couple bucks on Monday and I can get out without complete loss. A gap up to 56 and it's over for me. The longest 36.5 hours of my life from now until the market open Monday. I guess for my own selfish reasons I am praying for things to go as smoothly as possible tomorrow in Crimea.
I still don't understand why the VIX went up so much over Crimea, this is not nearly as big a deal as Syria.
US will never send troops in regardless. I get why Russia's stock market has dropped almost 20% and could end up with a 50% drop if the sanctions come in. But the simple fact is it makes very little difference to the US. Talk about an overreaction, Crimea sneezes and we panic? Unbelievable.
I pray youre right. I am having nightmares about waking up to VXx 55 or higher Monday. Or god forbid 60. On resuming trading after 9/11 VXX would have gone up 15% and it went up 20% in 2011 two times in one day. My fervent prayer is things calm down and it doesn't hit 56 next week.
Sweaty palms weekend. Feeling the pressure big time hoping the vix move to 18 won't turn into a move higher than 22 or so. I am hoping the market doesn't freak out next week, at least keep VXx under 56 until friday