It's an interesting dilemma Agen. If a patient can effectively be "cured" for an annual treatment cost of say $800,000, everyone wins. Patient...insurance company...BLUE. If the treatments knock down transfusion rates by as much as 50% or more per year, the cost might be $250,000 per year, but goes on for say 20 years. Either way it's a win/win. The patients...the hosptials.... and the insurance companies...
But the platform remains, and the treatments that could come from that in the future might indeed change the course of how many diseases are treated, and cured, in the decades to follow. That is what I am really hoping for with this particular investment.
Not as big of deal as it looks Rock... ZSPH...their main competition in the future, is down about the same today. Bios accross the board are getting killed again today. Selling looks to be drying up however. I think this could be very near to a bottom for the group.
Visa Chief Technology Officer on Bloomberg now talking about the NFC chip & pin cards and other built in security measures for the new mobile e- commerce devices. Market is going to be huge.
You still need to get 109 FDA approved or punt any insurance coverage. FDA will not approve something that shows only a marginal benefit to placebo. Some Americans with dollars to burn might go for anything that shows a 10%-20% benefit but your local HMO or Blue Cross ain't going to approve it for reimbursement.
Hanna...I own tons of this stock, all at a nice loss right now, but have to agree with "saba" A picture is worth a 1,000 words in our case. If the pictures at three months, or six months, even a year, do not show at least a 60% improvement over placebo, I doubt we're going to be able to secure partnering on this, or anything else.
This is not a situation where you can kinda talk your way into success.
It either works, and works materially well, or it doesn't. Nobody is going to throw millions of dollars at this company for a marginal benefit product. Those with major scars don't want something that might look a tad better if you stare at it from two inches away under a microscope. They want something that makes the scar virtually go away to the naked eye on a bikini line from 5ft away. We either
have that type of potential, or we don't. If we don't we need to turn our limited resources to optical and see how that indication goes.
Rock... Thanks for your reply. I wrote a long repose but I think Yahoo deleted it somehow...LOL...
I was actually the second poster on this board going back to Nov 27, 2013. I bought the stock at $11.98 avg and later sold it around $28. Then watched it go to $52. In for round two from the $22's. Always good to sell until you can sleep! I'm slightly older than you and have been in bios for over 25 years starting with Genentech and Amgen... Like this one but there will be some competition especially from ZSPH down
the road. Don't read too much into recent insider selling. They get their stock virtually for "free" so it's mostly pure profit. The Market is at a high...bios have had a great run, but have been weak of late, and those guys like to diversify just like we do. Seeing it in quite a few bios recently.
FDA approval should be a lock unless I'm totally reading this one wrong. Hyperkalemia is a nice market,
and there is currently an unmet treatment need. The thumbs down come from a nut job on another Board
who didn't like my opinion on his stock and follows my posts on all Boards giving me thumbs down! Usually more than one under different alias. There are crazy people all over this world sadly. I had the last laugh though. The company filed for BK last week...lol! GL to you!
Estimates are there is approximately 15k B-Thal patients in the U.S. and Europe. The treatment by BLUE is potentially curative, and costs approx. $800,000 per patient, but that's potentially only once. Competing
treatments, which have not been been curative, average $400,000 per year, and go on indefinitely.
At a 50% penetration rate, the revenues would amount to approximately 6 billion dollars. But it's the platform that could have 5-10x's that worth. That's the big one IMHO.
You've given about every logical and rationale explanation for your selling this stock known to mankind.
You have to be either an engineer (most likely); teacher, or college professor (yes, mutually exclusive in my mind); CPA or government worker; but definitely NOT someone who should be in the stock market.
You see my man...Stocks are irrational and you are trying to make your sell decision "rationale". The bottom line is I was actually adding to my position right near the close (yes...on another Friday...I like doing that), while you were second guessing yourself and trying to rationalize selling your position.
Bottom line is you followed the rest of the sheep who read about all of the insider selling of late and concluded something bad must be coming, and soon, otherwise, why did they sell? Logical? Yes. A money losing strategy for you and the other sheep? Will be. You are obviously pretty clueless regarding their hyperkalemia drug and the market it will serve, otherwise, I doubt you would have sold, but each to their own. Simply admit that you were shaken out of your position with the rest of the rookies by the big boys, and when you were selling, you probably should have been buying...Next time, try a mutual fund.
Agen... That is so cool that you actually read my post and acted on it. Probably the only one who did too. Makes me really happy that you saved 100k...That is huge! Congrats...
I went into civil litigation with a mid sized firm after serving as a prosecutor for three years after law school.
Did all types of law. Learned an awful lot in many fields. I actually litigated quite a few BK cases in the Fed courts in downtown Los Angeles, so I know what I speak of. Put companies into Chapter 11 just like Siga to protect their assets and their business. I know what happened to the shareholders in a lot of them. Zippo.
Fate often acts in very strange ways. Lets hope we were all brought here together for a good reason.
SC is State. BK is federal. Different courts...Different objectives.
The BK Court has NO jurisdiction over the State court appeal. They can temporally stay all state and federal lawsuits until the BK mater is resolved or dismissed.. Likewise litigants can seek relief from those stays to pursue state court legal action if say their security is jeopardized., or for some other ""valid" reasons.
Here Siga wants the appeal process to proceed, and as quickly as possible. They just could not afford to post
the bond on appeal, ergo the BK filing to begin with.
Enjoyed the accounting discussions back and forth. The company will be technically insolvent under Bankruptcy Laws when the judgment is filed, regardless of who was right..
The company, by the way, will continue to operate normally under BK laws. The only difference will be in two to three years the company will either go away for good under a straight liquidaton Chapter 7 bankruptcy, or, the judgment will be reversed, and Siga will emerge from BK fully intact, and with a ton of money.
So for two to three more years Siga shareholders will be looking at a $1 plus company, and nothing more.
Nothing is going to move it up or down in any material respect, absent of course, a settlement. A BARDA contract renewal could benefit PIP as they could recoup more of their judgment...Or, it could be huge for Siga if the judgment is reversed. If you only knew. Will be like watching paint dry for 2-3 more years. Good luck.
biotechpicklist....Appreciate the obvious commitment and scientific talents of our CEO. Unfortunately I have been invovled in quite a few start up biotechs where a CEO thinks those talents translate into investment and business talents as well. It has been my experience, however, that most of the time, those talents are often mutually exclusive.
Our CEO has thus far, demonstrated the business talents of a failing undergrad business student.
Now is the time where business guidance, and advice, must come from talented third parties. To fall off the horse (his last presentation), only to compound that nightmare with a return visit to another conference only a few weeks later, is a huge marketing and leadership mistake iMHO.
Sometimes "saying" nothing is the best strategy to pursue after a PR nightmare. Let future results (and picutures for that matter) speak for themselves, rather than our most respected, but blundering, CEO.
How do we get Geert to put all conferences on hold until he has somethig to "show and tell"? Until we have pictures that clearly demonstrate the advantages of our "drug" over salt water, why does he want to keep reminding the investment community that " it really should...I mean really does....work". Our PR people
suck. He needs some good advice right now. I mean the subway sandwiches at these conferences can't be that good!
Like being involved with the smart folks like you and Agen. We knocked them dead in the antibiotic space didn't we during the last few years with TSRX, TTPH, and DRTX (I also own CEMP large from the 9's) but this one could be really huge. Also own MGNX from the low 19's...MDCO from mid 23's...RLYP (second trip on that name) from the low 22's.... Also DSCI from the high 8's...ARDX from the mid 14's... Think I'm a little over extended in the kidney hyperkalemia space, but oh well....lol! GLTAL's...let her rip!
OMG tia tia tia....dumb....dumb....dumb....
Siga is dead in their balance sheet solvency my man/woman. The judgment is going to be around 235 million in favor of PIP. Their liabilities will then exceed their assets by many millions. Their cash on hand (I believe close to $100) is not available as a cash balance sheet item because it is not Saga's until certain contingencies of the BARDA contract are removed. That is why they have never had to pay PIP on dime yet despite all this cash coming in from the contract with BARDA. No net profits, and may never be unless the contingencies are removed. Accounting 101 for goodness sakes.
Siga filed BK because they would have to post a bond close to 200 million if they wanted to appeal the verdict.
Obviously they didn't have the funds nor the ability to borrow it either. I was in GGP the day if filed BK and bought 100k shares at .54. Still have the confirm. Mr. Ackman. Unlike you I was a stupid moron and sold it
at $1.24 in a few weeks then watched it go to $24....LOL... Biggest mistake of my life...lol... On well...
This is an entirely different situation. If the judgment is upheld on appeal this company is toast. End of story. Current shareholders lose everything. If Siga wins the appeal, the company comes out of BK in a very short time and current shareholders keep their stock and it rallies back to $4-$6.in a nano second. Place your bets..
A. Short covering, and B. Lack of understanding as to what a Bankruptcy really means to current shareholders...
This is really fairly simple. The BK filing allowed Siga to pursue an appeal without posting the required
bond. So if one thinks the judgment will be reversed on appeal, this is a very good move by the company. In fact, it was the only one really. If Siga wins the appeal the Bankrutpcy will be ended, and the company will move forward with no outstanding liability to PIP.
If Siga loses the appeal, they will convert the current Chapter 11 reorg BK into a straight liquidation BK.
All secured creditors will be paid in full, as will likely be all the unsecured creditors who supplied goods or services to Siga. PIP would then acquire all the remaining assets of Siga, both tangible and intangible, including contracts in work (if they can satisfy BARDA they can timely discharge them), and perhaps even the patents that Siga had, in return for full satisfaction of the judgment. More than likely key Siga personnel would be retained by PIP, and business would go on pretty much as usual .
Current shareholders of Siga would very likely get nothing, as there would be nothing left..
Hanna.... "if it works" is always the big question with all of these small cap biotechs. IDRA pulled the same crapola with the Baker Bros. and their ownership, etc. and the stock ran to almost 7. It then #$%$ out on their first trial results, which were also disappointing, and the stock is now $2.50...
RNAi works. ALNY's 5.5 billion dollar market cap attests to that. The issue is if OUR technology works, and if so, on what type of indications? May not be for surgical scarring. Could be in optical uses or conditions.
But you lead out of the box with your best chances for success, so if that doesn't work, and work well, (on surgical scarring in our case), the markets are not likely to give you a second chance.
We need to see dramatic improvement versus placebo in surgical scarring results. Don't care it it takes six months or more to present new data, or pictures, but the next ones better be very significant (ie, a 60% improvment or more to the naked eye v placebo). If not, we could be toast like IDRA for a very long time.
Cavanaugh just might be the dumbest genius on the face of the earth. We're basically starting all over from day one, and at a new year low, trying to establish credibility to the investment community that we actually have something of benefit to mankind. I mean who did he think he was speaking to, the AMA? Did he know he was in a room full of investment people, research types, and venture capitalists? That a picture is worth a 1,000 words???
Showing pictures of one month results. Are you kidding me? No difference whatsoever between our expensive anti scarring medication and treating the wound with a glass of salt water? Idiot. Wish he were in my class. I'd give him an F- !!!