And especially to my best friend "Siga nut job" aka "Siga Board Patrol" etc. Enjoy your time with your family and friends and remember what Easter is all about....Kind of brings into perspective what little time we all have here....Worrying about this stupid stock, or any stock for that matter, is simply a nat on the back of an elephant when it comes to eternity...
No rmsacc...Definitely not offended, and I knew what you meant. I'm no religious fanatic for sure. I also tend to agree with your sentiments that everyone's beliefs are personal unto themselves. We certainly need all the help we can get from all sources to get RXII to the promised land...That's for sure! Thanks for all of your keen insight on this Board. Really value your input and thoughts. Have a great Easter!
Same to you rmsacc. Although perhaps politically incorrect, Easter is...well....Easter.
It's not about bunnies... It's not about Passover....It's frankly not about "all the Gods".
It's about the belief in one God, and the son of God, and if that's not cool for a lot of
folks, then I simply say, enjoy your day off!
Tedi (Tedizolid) was acquired by CBST from Trius Therapeutics, a company that quite a few of us here were involved in very early. The antibiotic is a daily dosage IV or pill form for skin infections including MRSA, and proved non inferiority to the comparator antibiotic. It will also probably have some labeling issues and follow up studies as part of FDA approval.
CBST has the marketing muscle. The large sales force with the ability to bundle other drugs and antibiotics to hospitals at discounted prices if they will take "Tedi" as part of the package. Could be a big advantage frankly. Dalvacin on the other hand could end up saving insurance companies and hospitals mega dollars by not having to admit patients for treatment as it can be administered on an outpatient basis (a once a week for two weeks IV)...
Best of both worlds? CBST buys DRTX and that got both.
Nice to see that Siga nut job is back and following me around on all Boards that I post on with 4 thumbs down on each....LOL! Reminds me of the crazy girl living upstairs from Charlie Sheen in "Two and a Half Men" who kept appearing on his balcony and looking in his windows, following his every move. Same with our resident Siga nut job who I hope is I hope harmless, but one never knows do they?
Yes...Go to the ALNY Board and there are postings from yesterday that refer to the source. I tried copying and pasting here but for some reason it did not work...
Said big pharma could never innovate anything revolutionary. If they had seen the data they had, they would
know as a fact that RNAi technology is going to bring a whole new approach to medicine, and treating
patients, saving lives. That GENZ put in 700 mil into their company just last year should speak to the validity of
RNAi technology. They intend to go forward full steam ahead!
Why would they spend real money like the rest of us fools do here buying this POS stock when they get theirs for free with a cost basis of zero? Ask yourself these questions...Why are the only people who probably ever made six or seven figures on this stock more than likely all Officers or Directors of the company? And why are the only people who have lost six or seven figures on this company probably shareholders who actually paid for their stock with their own hard earned money? And if that is not the case, I would personally welcome any poster who was, or is, an Officer or Director of this company, to tell us how THEY lost six or seven figures buying and selling Siga stock with their own money. The forum is yours!
drh.... Re: SYN....First thing...SYN was the former symbol for Syntex which was a very reputable big pharma back in the 1980'2-90's that was ultimately bought out. Karma says that is positive. Next...since you're in at $1 you got a free ride on the late April MS data. An outright bust will likely not take the stock below $1.25 IMHO.
Kirk...a billionaire that has a lot of money in the name as well...that's positive.
Interesting concept on Trimesta. UCLA doing the trials and funding it? Not bad frankly. MS...If they hit it could be huge obviously. Waiting time?...Only until the end of April. Phase 2 trial 160 plus. Nice. No phony Eastern European deal either. Large trial.
Negatives....Anything MS is a real tough deal. No proprietary drug per se but the combo is patented so that's strong. Teva could well want to buy them if the darn thing works. Their drug in this deal goes generic shortly.
Biggest worry...$2.49 stock. I'm of the school that good news and bad news in trials leaks to somebody.
Not apparently in this one as yet. Steady buying though, and Kirk added pretty big recently which is again, positive.
For you...No real risk. At $1 cost you get a free look at a potential homerun...$6 on good results right away.
For me at $2.49 I can lose half my money in a nano second with a failed trial, and double it on good results...possibly even more. 50-60% down and 100% up??? Hum...Will probably throw some money
at it. This Kirk guys sounds crazy enough to pull it off and UCLA doesn't get involved nor fund pie in the
sky trials.... IMHO!!!!
Exactly right. Not sure it is even possible to articulate a long term business plan for this company.
Has the company ever attempted to do that?
Drod....Seriously....Does anyone here have any idea when Parson's decision is due? That to me is the big unknown in buying the stock and holding it for more than a week or two. I mean, he could literally crush this company as a "going away" present, or, stick it to PIP and give them virtually nothing. Either way, an appeal is going to follow by someone, so you're still years away from finality of the litigation.
As the company also noted, it is likely that the FDA approval process for ST-246 will go beyond the current BARDA contract. I would add that the litigation will likely go beyond that time frame as well, no matter who "wins". So if you're buying the stock, even at these levels, what the heck are you "buying"?
Tell me the Pip v Siga litigation outcome and at least you have some foundation for an investment,
Yah Beav... It sucks on the downside but the same thin liquidity is sure nice when shorts have to cover when buyout rumors start up again...LOL! Not worried at all about this one. The world could end tomorrow and I'm still confident the stock is worth more than $12.77...LOL!
Beav....So many people want out of bios they're going to be selling on any rally. That and probably the shorts will start coming back on any prolonged rallies and start hitting the group again. Really brutal.
Sorry drh32530 for the tenor of my post. I thought your "exercise" was one intended to be totally objective, and not slanted towards all of our investments in DRTX. I guessed wrong re your motives, and sensitivities, and that was "my bad". Yes...as I've posted here for almost a year now...I'm very long DRTX from $7, and have not sold one share.
The use of some of your terms like "unmet need" is a word of art. All antibiotics are not an "unmet" need.
Yes, we need more of them, and more effective ones, especially for gram negative bacteria's, but there are quite a few of them out there doing their job in gram positive bacteria's, so the field in general does not qualify as an "unmet" need under a strict definition. In fact, that part of the field is getting rather crowded IMHO.
Was nothing personal. Sorry you took it that way. I misunderstood where you were coming from.
Please continue to post your views. Again, my apologies.
OK...good exercise before one turns in for bed I guess...lol!
1. Unmet medical need for this drug? Somewhat of an exaggeration frankly. The drug it was compared against, Zyvox, in the non inferiority studies, is marketed by Pfizer and has been out on the market for some time. The trial comparisons were very close. Dalb offers a once per week IV formula, while Zyvox is oral, or IV form, and must be taken daily. Think ours, being outpatient and once per week, is more convenient, thus gets the patient out of the hospital sooner, which is good for both the patient, and the hospital. I would prefer ours to be a once per week oral formulation which would be even better IMHO. Maybe in time.
2. Vote by ADCOM was unanimous but so was the Trius (CBST) antibiotic that came before ours.
We still had some labeling issues and probably some post approval safety monitoring, because of potential
liver issues. Ours is not for pediatric use or pregnant women. No studies were done with either children or PG women.
3. Have no clue.
4. Lots of small companies out there that remain small...LOL Not sure I understand the point.
5. Refer to above. If the implication is DRTX could be a target, then I agree
6. Low float simply makes the stock more volatile up, or down. What's the point?
7. Earnings are irrelevant at this point. Will be an anticipated loss.
8. PUDFA date in May, and Dalb will be approved. Fully anticipated already and discounted.
9. All time highs mean nothing unless you sold...Ditto with all time lows... LOL!
10. Not sure about EU submission before the end of 2014 but probably highly likely.
11. Quite a few firms have had buys on the stock for quite some time. Price targets were recently raised.
12. Zyvox is a Pfizer drug. Tedlizoid was owned by Trius and acquired by Cubist. Competition in the space is starting to get very crowded IMHO, and some lead antibiotics are going generic next year, or the year after.
DRTX will need to sell our drug on price and benefits.
Ironically, Ebola was one indication for ST-246/247 that the company felt could be developed via their pipeline.
They may have even started preliminary studies on the feasibility of pursuing it. Maybe even received some modest grant money to pursue it. Then...nothing.
Not only would that had been a big money maker today given the outbreak and spread of Ebola in Africa,
but the PR and goodwill for the company would have been worth it's weight in gold. To dream the dreams of what could have been if only, etc. etc. ... What a shame.
Siana....Definitely not beginning. A lot of bios down 30%-60% off their highs within a few weeks so it's been brutal. I have the deep scars to prove it too!
Do not feel it is over yet either. I think we might see a little more rally in the group then they'll hit it hard again and drive out the rest of those buying on the dips thinking the bloodbath is "over". But once that is over the rebuilding phase will take it's place and that could go on for months. A lot of damage has been done technically in the last few weeks, and they'll be a lot of people trying to get out of their positions as the stocks move up. Perhaps by the end of summer the damage will be repaired and normal order resumed, but that's only a guess. Nobody said it was easy did they? LOL!
stock_lurker.... Good post and well reasoned. I've been in bios for 25 years starting with the mother of all bios...Genentech. Your thoughts are right on. Been involved is some good buyouts, the last being TSRX by CBST last year for around $16. Was in that name large from the 4's.
In the antibiotic space a lot of competition is coming aboard. Not only the new companies like TSRX and DRTX, but generic competition as well. Pricing will be key going forward. The differences between choosing one over the other primarily money. If Dalb can be cost competitive, plus save the hospitals a patient lying around in a hospital room for a week receiving antibiotics, (when they could do it once a week on an out patient basis) such is a big advantage for DRTX.
Going it alone I would hate, and would probably sell on that news. Saw what that did to AMRN, and I have no desire to live through that nightmare again with DRTX. You have to have a very large sales force behind your product, PLUS, the ability to bundle it with other drugs to come out on top. Trying to undercut a CBST purely on price is going to be a loser IMHO. And the costs and dilution to current shareholders in starting up a large sales force, and mfg and distribution, would be substantial. No thanks.
I frankly foresee a buyout of DRTX in the high teens within six months following approval.
At least that is what my personal Tara cards read...LOL! GL to you and all longs!