I don't see it being a big deal either way frankly. Over $30 especially. But I don't see one close within the next six months. We have a lot of cash in the bank plus the 6.6 mil coming in from Fresenius each month for awhile so we should be just fine. Plus this one is just lining up to be taken out IMHO. Later in 2016 perhaps but it should happen if sales are anything decent for the first six months.
Playing the what if game?
What if ZS9 gets approved in May subject to doing DDI studies but with a black box warning not to be used by
people suffering from hypertension or on hypertension meds; people diagnosed with CHF or CKD; people who have suffered edema. Plus all those on restricted low sodium diets and intake.
Game over. RLYP should be worth a minimum of 3 bil in that case.
So if you were a prospective buyer in the hyperkalemia treatment market today, and you compete directly with AZN in the drug markets, and there is one only public company available already with an FDA approved drug and no others even remotely on the horizon, what would you do?
Risk paying 1.9 billion now for RLYP (800 mill less than AZN paid for ZSPH), or have to pay up to 4 bil
in six to nine more months for the same company? Looks like a no brainer to me frankly.
IMHO...Everyone should do their own DD and come to your own conclusions!
Ironically getting approval in Japan is normally a rather lengthy and arduous process. They make it that way on purpose. As for sales in Japan? Again you would think because of the aged population and sheer size of the country good US drugs would have robust mega hundreds of millions in dollars in sales. Not normally so though. US drugs by and large do not do that well in Japan. Tough market. Very protected.
RLYP will not sell out for a price "above" $30... No way....Offers would have to be north of $40 and more than likely $45-$50 IMHO. I do expect a buyout offer frankly as early as Q1 of 2016. If Veltassa starts catching on the longer a big pharma waits the more it's going to cost them. My guess is that SNY is the suitor too. Just makes too much sense frankly. IMHO!!!
Of course if ZS9 is black boxed on numerous issues when they go before the FDA in May, all bets are off.
Then the price could double frankly....
Lurker... You are correct. I just looked at the latest ML report Nov 6th) and they have sales estimated in 2016 of 48 million. Nice... Sorry for the earlier post.
Same to you Kei and all RLYP longs but I'll get alot more excited when we're over $40....
Have a safe and fun Thanksgiving. Remember market closes at 10:00 AM PSTon Friday,
The big clinical blockbuster IMHO would be if Veltassa reduced BP during normal use to an extent that high BP patients would not require BP medication in addition to Veltassa. That my friends would be a game changer frankly.
You are dead right that the potential is staggering but as we all know...You can't spend potential though.
Even the company has said to expect a slow ramp in sales. Doctors need to be educated on the benefits of Veltassa and from those I have spoken to...some will wait and see how the product is used by other doctors and how their patients are doing on it before they perscribe it to theirs.
But once it catches on it should go like wild fire I suspect. If two years out sales are above 150 mil I think we're off to the races and sales will increase expodentially year after year from there.
What is the company worth? Difficult to say. But I think a very conservative number right now would
be $45-$50. Should only get better IMHO...
Old report from ML. Most recent one was one Nov 6 and that maintains a $27 price objective which was reduced from $45 earlier. The concern by the analyst is the six hour black box label. Without that I think she'd have kept her original price objective.
Who cares what the stock will be at the end of November?
This is a $45- $50 stock and will be taken over sometime next year IMHO.
Anyone selling at $23 would be a total idiot IMHO.
Traders are most often losers...
Especially in a stock like this.
IMHO if SNYdoes not buy RLYP they are nuts.....It's already set up for them....
Justa... I think ZS-9 gets approved regardless if the year long follow up data is complete or not in May.
They'll have enough data to get it approved in my opinion. The big issue though is what the label will say.
I sincerely feel it could say that ZS-9 is not appropriate for CHF patients as it was found to have caused edema and could add to fluid overload for anyone requiring a low salt diet. For CKD it might also caution on the same area.
If it is basically black boxed for CHF and/or CKD patients, the game is over.
CEMP made me a lot of money in the past so I don't want to bash it in any respect but....
Given the IV trial results, which were basically non inferior but with some "issues" including quite a few more AE's, and even the oral trial results, which were again were only "non inferior", not seeing why at this point in time Soli is thought to be the mega billion dollar opportunity that everyone thinks it is.
First off, I doubt it will be used widely in IV even if it gets approved for that. Seems like Moxi, Levo, and even Azith, are still being used widely in IV despite all the finger pointing re side effects, etc. As for oral...? Soli is still only non inferior to the others already available on generics, so what insurance is going to pay 10x's or more for Soli? And injection site reaction is not a good side effect for IV use either..
So that leaves Soli as the antibiotic of last resort for those who are resistant to Levo..Moxi...Azith and others.
Plus the antibiotics that were acquired first by CBST (then MRK?) from people like TSRX and DRTX.
I don't think that prospective market for Soli is nearly as large as everyone out there thinks it is. At least not
right now. Yes...resistance is growing, but still not a "huge" problem right now. Maybe in 5-10 years it
will be a very major ,but who's going to pay mega billions now for a problem that is 5 years off
or even more?.
We'll all just wake up and the stock will be halted and we'll see the news about a $40 plus buyout.
The question is how many here will be there to see it? Hope everyone. But it's not going to be easy though between the shorts and the market manipulation. Same people who drove it down into the 10's will try at least a couple of times more to do something similar before our day comes. Patients then patience.
Love looking on sites that describe drugs and their side effects...
One, Wiki RX (or vice versa). had the side effects for Veltassa (Patiromer) as constipation and diarrhea.
Now come on...Which one is it??? LOL!
2.8 billion for a drug and process where the following could easily take place between now and next May..
1. FDA extends the PDUFA date because of incomplete and insufficient year follow on study data.
2. FDA extends the PDUFA date to order ZSPH to do DDI studies as a condition of approval.
3. FDA orders a black box warning not to use on patients with CKD and/or CHF.
4. FDA issues a black box warning that the drug can cause edema and increased hypertension
5. FDA issues a black box warning that people on low sodium diets or intake should not use ZS-9.
6. FDA issues warning the drug should not be used in emergencies as it takes hours to work.
7. Drug has been shown to cause diarrhea and hypokalemia.
The antitrust concern is indeed interesting. Not really sure what it pertains to except from what I've read from some sources, AZN was as interested in the process ZSPH employed for removing K as much as the result itself. I think they felt the basic process could be adapted for other uses in medicine and drug delivery etc. Maybe if they held the patents and drug delivery became more efficient then it could be construed as a monopoly on that specific issue as they hold the patents, etc. Just guessing really at this juncture.
As for the IP itself....You can probably guess that if either drug becomes a billion dollar seller there will be attempts down the road to copy the process used by either company or develop some type of copycat process. Most likely boilerplate language to protect themselves from claims and events that they have no reason to know at this time.