GTXI...That is really good to hear AK and hope you own a ton as well. Fingers crossed on that name as I've been burned many times before in some of those "binary events"....LOL...Yes...let's see if the Golong Bottom holds and I'll add to AMRN. Did not get your note though, but the attempt was appreciated!
Thanks AK....As usual a very thoughtful and well reasoned response. I'm still holding a decent position from
the low 7's but will more than likely add if it can hold that $6.50 level. GLTY my man!
I'm thinking an express or implied license agreement between PIP and Siga will be found by the Court. I'm further thinking he'll apply a standard license agreement rate of around 7% on gross sales. A wild guess for sure, but given the holdings of the SC, it would be fair to both parties IMHO.
I think you have it wrong unfortunately. RP may lose his shares in the current company in a BK but I would
bet anything that he would be part of the group that would buy ST-246 out of BK, and would be part of the new
"Siga" entity (it wouldn't be called that) that would take over the BARDA contract and all assets of the former company.
Drod....Hate to say it but as an attorney I used BK strategy in the past to do exactly that and it ended up
saving the companies and unfortunately was a bonanza for the "new" controlling sharheolders as well who ironically were the same people who controlled the old company, just under a new name and structure.
It's the common shareholders and subordinated debt people who get the shaft. I've been on that side too as a shareholder and it's not fun...
No...Siga would not go out of business regardless of what the judgment is in favor of PIP. BK doesn't work that way. Business would go on as usual frankly. The only difference would be the judgment would be wiped out as would probably common shareholders....The company would recapitalize, current creditors would like be paid in full, and Rose and the BOD would get new stock certificates! LOL!
Kind of what I have felt all along. The current Phase 1 contract to PIP is worth basically zero. Break even on it would be about what I suspect. No profits can be booked until we get FDA approval for ST-246. That could be in a year...possibly two...or possibly never. In the meantime, cash will continue to drain from the coffers as the company ramps mfg and delivery to BARDA. And the first 40 mil of profits on a net basis goes back to Siga in any event. PIP is likely to never see a dime from the current BARDA contract.
If the judge did award 500 million in damages to PIP, and the verdict was somehow upheld by the SC, PIP would still get nothing.. This is a 135 million dollar market value company with only one asset of any real value...the BARDA contract.. A 500 million dollar verdict would make Siga BK, ie, liabilities far exceeding tangible and intangible assets. Siga files BK and discharges the judgment in total. Done all the time. Of course current shareholders would probably get zip as well, but Siga could recapitalize as a new entity probably within nine months of filing BK...Keep the BARDA contract and the rest would be history.
I have all of my acounts at ML and have access to all their research...reports...etc. on-line.
Nothing on TSRX for 6/13 but I guess the point is they are bullish on the stock as am I!!
No report on 6/13/13 from ML on TSRX....Latest report was back in May. Buy opinion and a $12 price objective. GLTALs
Amln...Think you might have misunderstood my post. I was the first one here who said the SC would reverse on the issue of damages and the remedy imposed by Parson's in my "On the Record" post here. Everyone else jumped on the bandwagon later...LOL! The issue is not respect for Parson's. He had been presented with a real conundrum. Either do a total 180 now and hold that there was indeed a contract in place with damages that could be arrived at with certainty, or, put it to the SC with PIP as simply collateral damage, by holding that he cannot award expectation damages to PIP because at the time of the breach they could not be arrived at with certainty, and were speculative at best.
As a last remedy he could state the parties had an agreement to provide a license agreement in favor of PIP if things fell apart between the parties, and fill in the blanks with an historical average of say 7% of gross sales, and be done with it. That (a license agreement) I frankly feel is the most logical outcome of this entire mess. Let's see if anyone else jumps on that bandwagon as well in the months ahead. LOL!
Nice job and summary re the issues that Parsons is now dealing with following the SC decision.
For me, the issue comes down to whether or not Parsons has any intellectual integrity left, or will he simply roll over and play dead for the SC? Is his status amongst his peers, or job security, or possible promotion,
now more important than his factual and legal findings and conclusions that he made in this case more than a year ago?
If he sells out, we lose again. If he holds true to his earlier factual findings, he cannot award expectation damages to PIP as he found such to be too speculative and uncertain to award at the time of trial.
Suddenly, a year or two later, those damages could not have matured into crystal clarity absent something factually new that was not considered at the time of trial.
This is really not an issue of law this time around. What Parsons is compelled to do according to the SC findings is to do is find. or not find, damages in favor of PIP under general contract law. If he contradicts himself 100% from his trial verdict I guess he can do that. Like I said...he either has ethics, or he doesn't.
I'm betting he has some integrity left..
Insider holdings? You're friggin kidding us aren't you? They didn't buy Siga stock with real money.
They were either given their shares or exercised options. Rose and others sold millions of dollars worth of stock in the low teens while telling everyone just how "rosey" things were going with the company.
Could "Shelly" get lucky with her Siga buys if things work out somehow? Sure. Doesn't mean though that buying a money losing penny stock for your IRA is a good strategy. TG the US Goverment doesn't allow the average moron citizen to invest their Social Security if this is what you and "Shelly" consider to be a suitable investments for ones retirement accounts...
Shelly...I'd consider suing yourself for incompetence for putting a penny stock that has declined 85% from its high, and pays no dividend, into your IRA. Looks like you're going to be working to at least to 85 with this strategy, so good luck!!
Own both GTXI and TSRX from the low 4's so having a good year in the bios. Unfortunately for me I sold my PCYC many tens of points lower some time ago so you've done great AK, and I left a lot of dough on the table with that one..LOL!
I hope for all AMRN longs that the 6.50 ish recent bottom does in fact hold. If the script and sales numbers start to ramp and Anchor is approved it should.
I hold no ill will for most AMRN longs. It's the ones who kept pumping the stock from $16 all the way down to $6 and cursing anyone who questioned their thesis that I had problems with. I got out of my AMRN positions at an average of $10 and a 110k profit, so can't complain all that much.
Good luck to you and glad your health is in good shape along with your investments!
Look....I sold PCYC at $18; SRPT at $17; ARIA at $6....ALXN a $24....
NO WAY I'm selling this one before $20! In from $4.55 and holding for a minimum
of $20! GLTAL's!
Thanks Jefferson....Glad you acted on both. I'm in TSRX from $4.10 and GTXI from around $4.55.
Interesting you would buy anything I suggested given I am so hated on this board...LOL!
You are indeed a man of independent judgment and acumen! GL!
We can certainly blame management for not developing a pipeline for their anti virals like CMRX did
rather that rely on the Government to support the company ad infinitum. Kind of like an entrepreneur
versus a welfare approach....