Just a note to place on your refrig for the next few years....REMINDER TO SELF... "IF I EVER READ OR HEAR THAT CEMP PLANS TO LAUNCH SOLI ALONE (GOING IT ALONE) SELL IMMEDIATELY ALL SHARES REGARDLESS OF THE THEN CURRENT PRICE".
I was not talking about varied uses for Soli but other AB's or drugs they might be developing?
There are none. Soli is the AB.
I am long both and there is defintietely a comparison being made by the markets.
The common issue is the extreme costs of launching any new drug on "your own". Far more than any investor gives the issue credit for. Hundreds of millions of dollars. That means dilution of some sort. On-going dilution.
Large and costly sales forces...costs for mfg....physician education...advertising...seminars....new staffing....new facilities etc. All means money and that means dilution...major dilution.
When you have a one product one drug type company the goal should be sale...not going it alone.
All public AB companies in the last five years have been sold. CEMP should be another one when FDA approval comes. If they decide to go it alone that means no viable buy out offers and that's the time to get
the heck out and perhaps get back in when the stock drops 50%. Don't kid yourself into thinking this is a
different case. It is not.
This Board, except for SL and perhaps some others, seems to be light years behind in the learning curve of what the heck Velt is, and what it does, and the issues between them and ZS9. It is quite likely that ZS9 if it even gets approved will not attack the chronic markets because of their Na issues. They may well be prevented even from doing so in CHF and CKD patients because of the Na issues, and the very limited label for chronic use that I expect them to receive from the FDA even on approval..
The issue here today is how fast the Nephs and the Cards will embrace Velt. Time and education of the benefits is what it will take and the problem is our financial structure just doesn't give us that time. The company needs to be sold, but after we find out the verdict on ZS9 in May.
If ZS9 gets bombed then Velt has 100% of the chronic HK treatment market for at least another decade.
How big of market that becomes is anyones guess but it is certainly more than the current 400 mil enterprise value for RLYP. So if we see that I suspect we get bought out before the end of the thrid quarter of this year.
Price? Who the heck knows but I'm thinking anywhere from $34 to $46. Wide range but wide variables in value as well.
If ZS9 gets a clean label then I still think we'ill be sold but more likely in the high 20's....
The chances of us going it alone? Virtually zero.
So the game for now is to get the script growth and see how ZS9 does with the FDA in May. GL to all longs.
This is very true and only the very well read on Velt would know this. Good job. Need to add that the fasting coupled with the insulin/glucose ER treatment was also cited as a possible reason for the "faster action".
Label warnings with Velt have nothing to do with the calcium binding mechanism of action...Nothing.
The calcium is NOT absorbed into the system in any respect. It is discharged through the colon entirely.
Trials showed this...the FDA knew that...ergo wasn't even an issue. It never ceases to amaze me
how little people read and research a stock before buying it.
Cause you have some Docs whose elderly patients have LOW blood pressure and they're concerned about putting them into cardiac arrest if they use Velt because it could lower their BP. Seriously. My GP just mentioned that to me. Most patients with HF and KD are elderly.
Orbimed isn't stupid. Not their first rodeo either. Tough to figure out why they basically sat there and went along with this deficit launch without doing a secondary when the stock was twice this price. They sold some on the run up but then let the ship run into an iceberg on it's first leg of the journey. Go figure.
Not sure what they and Orwin were expecting frankly. You keep doing these ATMs in the teens then wonder why the market tanks your stock. You show 238 paid for scripts for six weeks then wonder why the launch
wasn't veiwed as gangbusters by the analysts. Right race wrong horse speaking of ZSPH? Weren't they the ones who got bought out at $82. Aren't we the ones who went from $30 to $13 in two months?
Maybe Orwin is the wrong horse in the wrong race. Or the wrong horse in the right race. Right now he reminds me of my dear wife of 43 years and that is in case of doubt go spend some $. At least she can cook and is darn good looking to boot. Orwin...You have other talents? LOL...
Wrong person idiot stick. My love is for CEMP not TTPH... Owned it and traded it made some $ and that was it.
trbca....ZS9...Mega problems for them on the horizon. Na issue in exch mech may prevent them from even treating CHF patients or CKD patients on low sodium diets. Think their label if they get approved is going to shock alot of folks. DDI studies...They haven't done many really and no in vivo ones yet either. Year follow on data...Where the heck is it? Need to report on around 300 more patients in thos trials with only 3 mos to PDUFA???
From the stuff I've been reading of late it smells like ZS9 is going a different HK treatment route to begin with. Sounds like they're primarily going after the acute market...hospitals....ER etc. where they have faster action to tout, and then get those patients on ZS9 when they leave the hospital ER setting, etc.
Especially after how slowly and how much it costs to get docs going on anything new like Velt they want to go down a different road. Much less costly. Smart actually cause once someone is on something they like it's tough to change.
We're going after a different crowd. Nph's and Cards primarily in PP's more conservative as they want to keep their regular patients and don't want to get sued by prescribing a new drug without some actual feedback from other docs and their patients. That takes time. They need to be won over.
ER docs probably younger and more state of the art oriented so they'll prescribe it to their ER patients.
But how big actually is the HK market going to be? That's the real issue. I know what is estimated by is that pie in the sky? Guess we'll see and sooner rather than later. GLTALs...
They've lost over 6 mil in five trading days w 7 mil plus shares so what are they waiting for? If they can't figure out that 275-300 mil per year in negative cash flow is not a good thing and that the company will likely be BK within 18 months if things don't change, then they deserve to lose it all like the rest of us.
Orbimed...Grow a pair and can Orwin right now...Put the company up for sale immediately....Let's all get the heck out of Dodge while at least the getting is good!!! A small profit for everyone now is a homerun!!
How about a "binding" offer...lol... Orbimed needs to take control here. They're losing 7 mil every point down. Stock down 28% thus far in less than 6 trading days.Orwin has lost total credibility IMHO. The strategy such as it is, is simply a recipe for BK. Can't spend 275-300 mil a year to take in less than 50. You learn that in high school. Econ let alone college. Sell the darn company and now!
Think they're going to concentrate in the acute mkt where they perceive an advantage and don't have to have an extensive sales force. Just supply hospitals and clinics. Smart really. If they ever get approved.
Heard that story before many times. Sometime that shaking tree is the one falling on you.
Look...I'm long a bunch for well over 2 years...In fact, I started this Board...But management either needs to sell the company or resign. One or the other.
Only positive is that Orbimed with 7mil shares is getting bagged with the rest of us so maybe they will do something other than throw $ down the drain for no return.
Orwin's strategy here speaks of the spoiled rich kid brat going after the hottest chick in college. Throw enough $ at her and eventually it will win her over. Too bad it isn't working with Velt and the docs.