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SIGA Technologies, AŞ Message Board

golongin2008 160 posts  |  Last Activity: 6 hours ago Member since: Nov 25, 2008
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  • golongin2008 golongin2008 Apr 23, 2015 9:27 AM Flag

    I didn't know that "mean duration of hospitalization" was an endpoint?? Come on gang...This is a scientific study, not economics.... Maybe the food in the hospital was so bad that those in the treated group wanted to go home early? LOL...

  • golongin2008 golongin2008 Apr 22, 2015 11:19 PM Flag

    Thanks AK and good observations. I did not know that one was in Germany. Like you I prefer US companies almost exclusively. David Miller is a big fan of TGTX . Roth put out a buy on it this morning with a $33 price target. I got involved with it because they were doing combo trials with PCYC. I do believe their drug standing alone will be very effective regardless. Lots of data due out in 2015. I will definitely check out ATRA and thanks for the idea. Good chatting with you and thanks again.

  • golongin2008 golongin2008 Apr 22, 2015 8:45 PM Flag !

    AK... I own TGTX from the low 15's and keep reading good things about the company...their platform...
    and trial data events coming in 2015....Check that one out will you? Think it might be a double from here...
    Roth gave them a buy today and a $33 px target but I think that could be conservative it they hit on all targets.

    Alos...AFMD...Don't own it just looking. Let me know if you see anything worthwhile in that name as well....


  • golongin2008 golongin2008 Apr 22, 2015 7:24 PM Flag

    By the way AK...Bought back my covered calls and sold my stock in CLDN at $15.90 this morning.
    Made 6 pts over all on the exercise, but more importantly, I think I may have dodged a major bullet...

  • golongin2008 golongin2008 Apr 22, 2015 7:21 PM Flag

    AK...All I care about is what the FDA thinks and they will approve Patiromer in October, or before then, hands down. I've read literally dozens of reports...opinions....etc. during the last three days, and none make any big deal or major distinction on the issue you've raised. But thanks anyway for the advice! LOL!

    Hey...I'm solidly profitable in ZSPH in just a few days, and almost a double in RLYP in less than a year,
    so you can make any distinctions you want and I'll just cash checks at the bank! LOL!

  • golongin2008 golongin2008 Apr 22, 2015 1:36 PM Flag

    AK... Need to set you straight on one statement that you keep making re trial designs...

    ZS004E is an extension trial to Harmonize for all patients who participated in that trial.
    It is a safety and efficacy trial and it is OPEN!

  • Reply to

    Both Will Be Buyouts-RLYP and ZSPH...

    by golongin2008 Apr 20, 2015 5:28 PM
    golongin2008 golongin2008 Apr 22, 2015 11:51 AM Flag

    AK...Read the NEJM report now twice. Yes...I think ZSPH probably has the acute setting pretty much to themselves right now. Will see once the year study results are released though.

    You better hope that coming out of the approval box RLYP does well. It will set the tone for ZSPH or any
    other drug coming out to treat hyperkalemia. The world is not waiting for ZS-90 over Patiromer. They are waiting to see the demand per se worldwide from the get/go for hyperkalemia drugs. Patiromer will be used
    first so if there are disappointments there the tone will carry over to the launch of ZS-90.

  • Reply to

    Both Will Be Buyouts-RLYP and ZSPH...

    by golongin2008 Apr 20, 2015 5:28 PM
    golongin2008 golongin2008 Apr 22, 2015 11:45 AM Flag

    Yes...the CEMP board has attracted quite a few physicians or clinicians that know their stuff.
    Soli has the potential to be the lead antibiotic for many indications including Gono.... My target
    is $60-$65 but down the road would not be surprised to see it trading alot higher....

    The one you would want to own on any meaningful pullback though is TTPH...
    Gram negative stuff with a great platform. I'm looking to buy in mid 30's but may never get there.
    Owned it in the 9's and sold it in the 17's and that tells you how smart I am...

  • Reply to

    Maybe a good sign

    by aussieaye Apr 22, 2015 8:32 AM
    golongin2008 golongin2008 Apr 22, 2015 9:22 AM Flag

    The stock is actually up in the PM...You're probably using Yahoo quotes which is EST and about an hour plus old.....

  • Reply to

    Covered Calls

    by ben5878 Apr 17, 2015 3:11 PM
    golongin2008 golongin2008 Apr 22, 2015 9:18 AM Flag

    Please be careful gang getting into writing or buying options if you're clueless. Get some professional advice and don't do it yourself. If you make a mistake it could cost you bigtime...

  • Reply to

    Both Will Be Buyouts-RLYP and ZSPH...

    by golongin2008 Apr 20, 2015 5:28 PM
    golongin2008 golongin2008 Apr 21, 2015 9:14 PM Flag

    AK...thanks, and I'll be watching closely the Kidney convention next week.

    Been reading up all afternoon on the trials and interpretations for both Patiromer and ZS-90.
    Will be most interesting to see the one year data for ZS. I must admit that based on what I've
    read to date, acute is probably a given to ZS-90. Not a huge market, but as you said...Once
    the patients start taking it, switching to something else is probably seldom done. At least that's
    been my experience. One negative in the chemistry of Patiromer was that for CKD patients,
    the drug has 3x's the recommended daily dosage of Calcium. Not good. It seems that calcium
    replaces the"K" which is taken out of the system via Patiromer.

    Right now there is about a 35% higher valuation for RLYP then ZSPH. That is probably because
    RLYP has a six month to market advantage over ZSPH....Their NDA has been filed and accepted...
    and a PDUFA for Oct has been set by the FDA. The approval difference could also likely lead
    pontential buyers of either/both, to see how things go with RLYP in the first six months post approval,
    and either make a bid for them, or wait for ZSPH to get their approval, and possibly make a bid
    for them.

    The problem with that analysis is if the hyperkalemia market is alot slower to take up for RLYP then first thought, I doubt reason would dictate that someone is out there just waiting to buy ZSPH expecting an entirely different result..Illogical if you really think about it.

    Therefore, the best thing that can happen for ZSPH is that RLYP gets taken over during the first six months forllowing FDA approval. The more I think about it owning both is really the way to go...At least at this juncture.

  • Reply to


    by ou71764 Apr 21, 2015 3:15 PM
    golongin2008 golongin2008 Apr 21, 2015 5:43 PM Flag

    One more story for you Vinny re cutting your losses....

    The mice of the house were out working hard late one night when they heard a loud "snap" then a scream from another mouse. Running over to see the poor thing stuck in the trap but otherwise "ok"... they asked
    him if he wanted any help getting the cheese out of the trap...The trapped mouse responded..."To hell with the cheese, just get my nose out of this trap!"....

    Applies to a bad stock pick as!
    Sell !!!

  • Reply to

    Both Will Be Buyouts-RLYP and ZSPH...

    by golongin2008 Apr 20, 2015 5:28 PM
    golongin2008 golongin2008 Apr 21, 2015 5:32 PM Flag

    AK...Thanks! I'll skip PRTO for now but let me know if it gets to a buy in your opinion at some point...

    ZSPH.... I'm frankly in a win/win situation with RLYP and ZSPH....

    Have a 15k share position in ZSPH from $39.47....
    Have a 45k share position in RLYP from $18.36...

    Both should be acquired IMHO...
    One or both should be a homerun none-the-less....

    Thanks for your updates and info on ZSPH...
    Really appreciate it....

  • Reply to


    by ou71764 Apr 21, 2015 3:15 PM
    golongin2008 golongin2008 Apr 21, 2015 3:37 PM Flag

    Vinny...IMHO making money in the stock market over time is more feel and intuitiion than what you read in a book. Been doing this for over 35 years and let me tell you there is no substitute for losing money...getting beat up a bit...and coming back from it all. Everyone has their own style. Some books will give you some
    great things to think about. Most traders end up dead broke frankly. IMHO fair better to do your research then buy a good position in a stock then watch it closely....Stay ahead of the group....and if you like what you see...
    hold it. Learn to read charts so you will at least enter and exit at some rational analytical levels.

    Trust only yourself and your intuitions. Remember you have no friends on a message Board.
    Try not to over analyze situations and stocks. If something is cheap there's usually a reason for it,
    and vice versa....If something is going up over time there is usually a reason for it. Don't buy or sell with
    the crowd. Stay away from fad stocks and industry groups There you go!

  • Reply to

    Both Will Be Buyouts-RLYP and ZSPH...

    by golongin2008 Apr 20, 2015 5:28 PM
    golongin2008 golongin2008 Apr 21, 2015 3:16 PM Flag

    Thanks AK and nothing personal re anything we post I hope....

    Having a good day with ZSPH!

    Let's talk about PRTO... You seemed to really like it the other day when it was trading at $17...
    I'm thinking of buying a good position down at these levels (12's)...You seem less enthusiastic today??
    Any reasons other than the drop in the price??? TIA

  • golongin2008 by golongin2008 Apr 21, 2015 1:53 PM Flag

    AK....Lockup period expired yesterday on 4/20/15.....

  • Reply to

    Both Will Be Buyouts-RLYP and ZSPH...

    by golongin2008 Apr 20, 2015 5:28 PM
    golongin2008 golongin2008 Apr 21, 2015 12:47 PM Flag

    Re the Baker Bros...? One hit wonders IMHO. Got very lucky with PCYC. Alot of their recent stuff have been big losers... Probably own 35 or more positions in lower priced bios. Just playing the odds that one may hit big to balance the ones that strike out....

  • Reply to

    Both Will Be Buyouts-RLYP and ZSPH...

    by golongin2008 Apr 20, 2015 5:28 PM
    golongin2008 golongin2008 Apr 21, 2015 12:33 PM Flag

    Re: AMRN....I got out in the 10's after making some money the first time around on it...Lost over all though...
    You actually told me to get back in when it was trading in the low 7's and then all the way down...I don't buy stocks under $3.00 except in very rare instances. If you recall I was questioning the idiot stick longs on AMRN from the mid teens after it fell from the high teens. You and the others were following that phony doctor Jessie Livermore... I told you and the others that he was a phony and a Charlaton and to avoid him like the plague but I was was shouted down like no other poster on that Board. Felt good to be right though

    You're going to lose your bet on RLYP just like you did on TSRX...then again on DRTX...Both mega buyouts.
    I tried over and over to get you to buy both but you kept saying your wife called AFFX and she didn't like either TSRX ior DRTX....As you know, both were bought out. My conscience is clear. I tried.

    You're going to lose again here on RLYP. Your saving grace will be that you own ZSPH, which, if their year study is good, should also get FDA approval at some point and should ultimately be bought out as well.
    That would make me happy for you...and now me as well!

    Speaking of buys... I held off on buying PRTO when it was $17 and it's now $12....What's happening there?
    Maybe it's a buy now? TIA....

  • Reply to

    Both Will Be Buyouts-RLYP and ZSPH...

    by golongin2008 Apr 20, 2015 5:28 PM
    golongin2008 golongin2008 Apr 21, 2015 11:14 AM Flag

    You are one smart man Vinny and you'll make alot of money in the stock market if you do your own thing and don't listen to the noise of the crowd. Just remember the "crowd" is seldom right and the average "Joe" remains "average" cause he tends to go with the crowd and.doesn't do his/her research. Follow your instincts for right or wrong. You may lose on a stock, but you can't lose with the exercise. Invaluable. Being Irish or "half Irish" like I am doesn't hurt!

    First to market should be a huge advantage, as is obviously FDA approval, so why sell then (just after FDA approval)? That is when the stock is basically de-risked...The stock won't move all that much on FDA approval in October. Everyone expects it. Maybe a couple of points. Then it could sell off after that from folks like yourself selling on approval and moving on, with no real new news on the horizon.

    But therein lies the opportunity for big pharma to make a pass at them. FDA approval in in the bank....and a sales force being built...All they need to do is buy the company.

    OK...Price? Concensus is the company should be worth between $50-$55. On a buyout I think $65-$75.
    When....Within a few months following FDA approval IMHO... There you have! GL on whatever you decide to do frankly. A bird in the hand, or go for the big payola behind curtain number 3? Your call....

  • Now you're talking. Everyone loves it when a plan comes together! LOL....