Not short selling. You don't short $1.70 stocks. 100% cash required...Can't margin. Your max gain is $1.70 and you could lose $20/shr if this thing takes off like it could.... More than likely simply day traders cashing in and looking elsewhere... Just went long big in this stock $1.63 ish.
Little more info on ZSPH's "side effects"...
5 cases of hypokalemia (9.8%) at 10g.
6 case of hypokalmemia (10.7%) at 15g
Had to reduce dosages during the trials from once per day to once every other day
during the remainder of the study...
14 cases of Edema...
8 cases on 15g or 14.3%....
(3 cases resolved themselves but the rest required some form of treatment).
Sounds frankly like the higher dosages (10g and 15g) may well pose some problems frankly.
What would you trade...Mild to moderate "constipation" in 10-11% of the trial participants
or hypokalemaia and/or edema in 10%-14.3% particpants....????
Let's try and set the record straight here on the differences and issues between RLYP and ZSPH...
RLYP recently held an analysts day and a number of noted physicians were invited to attend. In fact a few
even spoke at the meeting and emphasided the importance of patiromer being proven as "non absorbed"
and do NOT see the level of constipation as seen in the trials as a constraint on adoption. More importantly
those levels went from 10-11% during early stages of the trials to around 4% on maintenance.
ZSPH is not without safety issues AK... Their trial results to date show a higher rate of hypokalemia than
Patiromer as well as edema, In addition, you'll have to wait and see the results for their current Phase 3 that is
underway to see if anything else comes to the forefront. As I mentioned earlier that Phase 3 was not
developed under a SPA so you have some risk there.
RLYP will be targeting initially patients with heart failure and stage 3 and 4 chronic kidney disease.
Serum potassium levels of 5.5mmol/L or above which is 60%-70% of those being treated by physicians.
Also on dialysis. 5 million plus patients.
ZSPH is 6-9 months at a minimum behind RLYP. ZSPH might file for FDA approval pehaps in
advance of the data being released from their current Phase 3 studies. A risk if you ask me.
There is plenty of room for two players in the hyperkalemia market. It's 6 billon worldwide market and two players.The more physicians are educated the better it will be for both players. ZSPH looks like a winner
as well, but I've been in RLYP since it was $18 on the second go around (first was the IPO from $17-$28
where I sold it and watched it to to $53) and I like the fact it will be first to market. GL
Right on. A one drug company in a very large untapped potential market with a first to market sales
advantage for probably a year or more. A no brainer for a large pharma or biotech. Going to cost them
mid $50's though....
AK.... Yes...Owned or traded a majority of the CART stocks. Had BLUE at $37 and sold it at $43...Next day it went to $90 on their data release. Typical. Have traded JUNO and just did recently last Thursday/Friday for 5 pts and out. Not as enthusiastic about KITE or BLCM though.
Owned MGNX from $19 and recently sold it at $36.50...
Just recently purchased: TGTX; RMTI; CLDN; TBPH; QURE
My largest position, even over RLYP, has been CEMP from the mid 9's....
You know how much I like the antibiotic stocks...
Will look at the ones you just mentioned as well. Look interesting and much thanks!
Just released today a new SA article on RLYP...Very detailed....factual....and rationale report, supporting
much higher price levels. Give it a read if you have some time!
PCYC....Yes....One I certainly sold too soon but I owned it from $11 so almost a triple...I'll take that.
Bigget risk in trading is losing money, and not cutting your loses. I always seem to sell too soon.
Over confident? Not really. I've been humbled many times in the stock market over the years.
I try not to look back on what coulda...shoulda...been. For every PCYC there's an AMRN.
Just now I do my own thing pretty much and don't really read these message boards much any more.
Prefer Twitter, as there are lots of physicians, and research scientists there who invest and who are interested in biotech and attend the conferences, etc. Data and news are fresh...detailed and professional, with none of the junk you get on message boards. Give it a try...Highly recommend it!
ZSPH.... The "go to drug"? Perhaps. Then RLYP discounts theirs by 10% and they suddenly become
the "go to" drug. You think ABBV's HCV drug is better than MRK's, or vice versa?? Who knows? But hospitals will probably use the one that is cheaper, all things being pretty much equal. We're splitting
hairs on ZSPH v RLYP. The odds are that probably BOTH will be acquired by a large pharma in
Safet?y...RLYP has a higher rate of constipation, and ZS-9 a higher rate of hyperkalemia and edema.
Take your pick. ZS-9 was not developed under a SPA either, and results after one year have not been
published yet. There's some risk there obviously.
Target patient population for RLYP are patients with heart failure and Stage 3 and 4 chronic kidney disease who are not yet on dialysis. Serum potastium levels of 5.5 mmol/L or above which is 60-70% of those being treated by physicians.
Really don't think this is an either or situation. Both should do well frankly IMHO.
AK....The bar on ZSPH's trials for the range of serum potasium levels in their trials were lower than that
of RLYP. 98% v 90% within 48hrs for RLYP with a significant lower "bar" to achieve for ZSPH. Room for
both companies though. Let's see how ZSPH does in their final Phase 3 trial as well. Still an unknown.
Price war? Possible. Or maybe they merge and charge whatever they want to? LOL... Who knows?
All I know is I bought the stock $17's on this second go around and own it large. Happy thus far!
Remember AK... I was the loudest voice of dissent on AMRN from $11 to $7.50 when I bailed,
while the guru like Jessee Livermore (who was probably a short IMHO) and others, road that one all the way down to .99...
Yes...I might be simply very "lucky"
Or....Could it be that I actually read a heck of alot on many many bios and have a darn good feel for what can
work or not? You tell me. My bank balance really doesn't care though frankly.
HI AK....Thanks for your input. I've read pretty much everything on both RLYP and ZSPH for a long time now. ZSPH well before it went public I was in contact with them and almost invested with them ( when they were a private outfit). Both RLYP and ZSPH have good drugs for hyperkalemia. It is an unmet medical need that contra to you wife's initial impressions, is very serious, and has a potential 3 billion dollar worldwide market. Remember she was also negative on TSRX when I tried to have you buy it at $7 (and it was bought out a year later at $16) and again when I suggested DRTX to you (another anitibiotic company) at $9, and it was bought out a year later at $24.50. So at best her
advice has been "unlucky" on some of these.
Clear effcacy of RLYP's drug was established with over 1,000 patients in two Phase2 and 3 trials. RLYP is done with their trials....ZSPH has one Phase 3 that is still pending.
Normalkalemia was achieved in all Phase 3 trials before the end of the first day. At 48hr mean reductions in SP levels was - 0.8 mm.. 90% response rate. Mild to moderate constipation was reported from 4-11% thru the different trials. Did not increase with prolonged use however. In fact the rate declined from 10-11%, to 4% in the maintenance phase.
The take up rate for the ZSPH "looks" better but that was because the bar was alot lower in their trial particpants. Please get ahold of the ML report on both and give them a read if you're interested. Being first to market will be a huge advantage here. IMHO the odds are that this one is also taken out down the road but hey...What the heck do I know? LOL...
GL to you.
Schroe... Can tell you don't live in Caliornia...Not "mucha".. Not an "a". It's masculine.with an "o"..".Mucho sobre todo nada"....LOL!
Before you just blanket the question you need to tell us how much of an ALT increase there was over baseline during the trials in these 4.6% of the trial participants. Those 4.6% could be heavy or chronic drinkers...or it could have been in part diet...Or the ALT increase could have been within normal ranges for those under these types of antibiotics, and/or other medications they were taking. 4.6% in and by itself does not impart any problems. Remember, some of these trial participants were kinda sick to begin with, therefore the need for antibiotics in the first place?
Think it's a great idea. What real difference does it make if they pay 9% or 7% on a 10yr Note.
The issue is surviving this crash in oil prices for the next 2-3 years... Only thing that can kill this company
and others is debt coming due and you don't have the cash to meet it.
Very well thought out, intelligent, and rationale summary regarding the current and future prospects of the company. From what I have read here to date, your post was indeed a rarity on this Board. Much appreciated!
We had that "healthy pullback" recently at $24.50 when they did the secondary.
The stock should now move up into the low 30's fairly easily....Give me another publicly
traded late stage antibiotic company with great Phase 3 trial results in a key unmet need
and I'll buy it hand over fist. Don't bother....Already looked. There aren't any.